The Baltimore Ravens lost a close game to their AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11. The 18-16 loss impacted their playoff chances in a number of ways, but most importantly swung their odds of winning the division.
Let’s run through Baltimore’s postseason and AFC North chances entering this weekend’s action with the help of Pro Football Network’s playoff predictor.
Will the Baltimore Ravens Make the Playoffs?
After all the action in Week 11, the Baltimore Ravens are 7-4 and now have a 97.0% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 2.9% chance for the 1 seed, a 19.2% chance for the second seed, a 20.6% chance for the third seed, a 3.2% chance for the fourth seed, a 25.0% chance for the fifth seed, a 17.7% chance for the sixth seed, and a 8.4% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Ravens Win the AFC North?
Here’s what the AFC North race looks like after all the Sunday action in Week 11:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 53.7% chance to win the AFC North.
- The Baltimore Ravens have a 45.9% chance to win the AFC North.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have a 0.4% chance to win the AFC North.
- The Cleveland Browns have a 0.0% chance to win the AFC North.
Current AFC North Standings
- Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
- Cleveland Browns (2-8)
Ravens’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 11
Can the Ravens win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Baltimore has a 9.8% chance to win it all.
Ravens’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 12: at Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 13: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at New York Giants
- Week 16: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 17: at Houston Texans
- Week 18: vs. Cleveland Browns
What PFN Predicted for the Ravens vs. Steelers Matchup
- Spread: Ravens (-3)
- Over/under: 48.5
Sunday’s battle between the Ravens and Steelers will determine first place in the AFC North. It will also feature Lamar Jackson, who is somehow playing even better than he did during his 2023 MVP campaign.
Jackson’s efficiency (0.37 EPA per dropback in 2024 vs. 0.07 in 2023) has improved year over year, as has his down-to-down consistency (53% passing success rate vs. 47.6%). He leads the league in both of those categories and explosive pass rate, hitting a 12-plus-yard pass on nearly 20% of his attempts.
Did we mention Lamar also leads all quarterbacks with 538 rushing yards? His gravity as a rushing threat has helped Derrick Henry to 1,120 yards and a league-leading 12 touchdowns on the ground.
Jackson won MVP in Pro Football Network’s midseason NFL awards, while Henry took home Offensive Player of the Year. Baltimore’s juggernaut of an offense leads the NFL with 31.8 points per game and doesn’t figure to slow down any time soon, even against a Steelers defense that ranks seventh in EPA per play.
Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin’s gutsy decision to replace Justin Fields — who went 4-2 as Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback — proved why Tomlin is well-compensated and trusted to make critical decisions.
The Steelers haven’t lost a game since Wilson entered the lineup. Their passing attack, which ranked 15th in efficiency with Fields under center, is seventh since Wilson took over. Pittsburgh is averaging more than 30 points per game with Wilson helming the offense.
The 35-year-old hasn’t lost his deep-ball prowess, consistently hitting moonballs to George Pickens and Mike Williams. From Weeks 7 through 9, Wilson led the NFL in passing efficiency on throws of more than 10, 15, and 20 air yards. On throws of 15+ yards, Wilson is eight of 10 while averaging a cool 27.5 yards per attempt.
Downfield shots have been problematic for Baltimore’s woeful secondary all season long. The Ravens rank 31st in efficiency against passes of 15+ air yards and dead last against all throws.
PFN Prediction: Steelers 24, Ravens 23