The Baltimore Ravens, fresh off a 41-point showing in Tampa, Fla., head to Ohio to face the struggling Cleveland Browns. The Ravens are a huge road favorite against a Browns team without Deshaun Watson. Here are picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 25, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
Ravens (-8.5, 44.5) at Browns Odds and Betting Lines, 1 p.m. ET
Soppe: The Ravens look like an unstoppable force at this point, but this is a lot of points to lay in a divisional road game on short rest. Jameis Winston will get the start for the Browns, and his reckless nature is prohibitive in a lot of ways, but I’m not sure that’s the case against the third-worst EPA pass defense in the NFL.
Cleveland’s run defense has improved recently; for me, that opens the back door. Even if Baltimore were to dominate this game and look to ice the game, a late 16-point lead could turn into an eight-point win with a late punt and Winston staring at garbage time.
Lamar Jackson is 1-8 ATS (11.1%) in regular season games as a favorite of more than seven points since 2021, and while I don’t think they are in danger of losing this game outright, there are a lot of ways to cash this ticket. Baltimore is playing in its fourth city in four weeks, a stretch that started with bonus football in Cincinnati.
Pick: Browns +8.5
Katz: This is probably the prop I am most worried about burning me. Nick Chubb made his season debut last week, returning from a Week 2, 2023, torn-everything in his knee. He did not quite look like himself, which was to be expected, but he still earned 11 carries and saw three targets.
Chubb was incredibly inefficient against a weak Cincinnati Bengals run defense, totaling 32 yards on 12 touches. He should see his snap share tick up from 36% as he gets more acclimated to playing football again. However, things aren’t going to get much easier against an elite Ravens run defense.
The Ravens allow just 68.4 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the league. They are the ultimate pass funnel, allowing the most passing yards per game. With Jameis Winston taking over as quarterback for the Browns, this offense should be better.
4th and goal inside the 1-yard line…
there's only one correct option.@Tostitos | #DawgPound pic.twitter.com/HK7mircbm2
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns)
While that could open things up on the ground a bit, my guess is they throw more, especially given that they are likely to see a negative game script. Chubb could be running into brick walls once again this week.
Given Chubb’s lack of involvement as a receiver throughout his entire career, I am continuing with my strategy of taking the combined yardage under as it affords us extra cushion against Chubb being a little more successful than anticipated on the ground. I would play this down to 56.5.
Pick: Nick Chubb under 59.5 rush + receiving yards (-110 MGM)
