The key to solving the puzzle of Austin Ekeler’s fantasy football value is figuring out why he struggled last season. Was it a combination of an underwhelming offense and his ankle injury? Or is Ekeler done? The answer will dictate whether Ekeler is a value or a player to avoid in 2024 fantasy drafts.
Should You Draft Austin Ekeler in 2024?
Prior to 2023, Ekeler had posted four straight RB1 seasons, including two straight at about 21 fantasy points per game. Then, last year happened.
Ekeler first truly burst onto the scene in 2018. That was the first year in which he was a fantasy-relevant asset, albeit barely while averaging 11.6 points per game. Last season was his worst year since then, averaging a mere 13.2 points per game.
Previously one of the most efficient backs in the league, Ekeler averaged a mere 3.5 yards per carry last season. Consistently near the top of the league in target share, Ekeler was at 14.7% last season, eighth in the league.
While he was able to make the occasional big play, Ekeler struggled to produce them consistently. A mere 2.2% of his carries went for 15+ yards.
Entering his age-29 season, there are certainly reasons to ask whether Ekeler is declining. It’s important to note he was still able to average a respectable 4.6 yards per touch last season, and his 4.02 yards created per touch was inside the top 10.
It’s definitely possible Ekeler can’t do it anymore. It’s also possible he never got over his Week 1 high-ankle sprain.
Ekeler only missed three weeks due to the ankle injury. However, high-ankle sprains typically take up to 4-to-6 months to fully heal. The 4-to-6 week recovery timeline, which Ekeler beat, is for return to play. Ekeler was never truly fully healthy last season.
The first key to Ekeler rebounding this year is keeping him on the field. For years, the Chargers were searching for the perfect complementary back to Ekeler — a new Melvin Gordon type — to take some of the workload. Brian Robinson Jr. is the perfect guy for that job.
Ekeler can now move into more of a satellite-back role. He can handle 8-10 carries per game, while doing most of his damage as a receiver. The hope is this level of usage helps him maintain his effectiveness and stay on the field.
Targets are worth about 2.5 times more than carries. Ekeler can be an RB2 on limited volume. But there needs to be some volume. Rookie Jayden Daniels should be a boon to the offense overall, but how frequently is the mobile QB going to throw to running backs? Ekeler may only see a 12-14% target share, and that may be of a smaller target pie.
There are a lot more concerns with Ekeler than ways in which he succeeds. With that said, it’s all baked into his price. Ekeler’s ADP is RB29, No. 191 overall. In that spot, we typically want to target younger players with wide range of outcomes. I completely understand if you’d rather go with a Chase Brown or a Blake Corum or a MarShawn Lloyd. But Ekeler isn’t a bad pick at an RB4 price tag.
You can paint a picture in which the Commanders have a better-than-expected offense with Ekeler returning low RB2 value. Of course, you can paint a picture where he completely fails. But at RB38, there’s not much risk.
I have Ekeler ranked as my RB45, which still feels low for a guy with his track record. Simply put, I am out.