Fantasy football managers are dealing with a new injury and benefiting from a return in this game. The Arizona Cardinals fantasy preview is focused on their backfield sans James Conner while the Los Angeles Rams fantasy outlook dives into the Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua discourse.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -7
- Total: 48.5
- Cardinals implied points: 21.3
- Rams implied points: 28.3
Quarterbacks
Joshua Dobbs: With multiple TD passes or performances of over 40 rushing yards in four straight games, the appeal of Dobbs is obvious. Understanding that, I worry that we saw glimpses of the league kind of figuring him out last week. He threw his first two interceptions of the season and ran for just a single yard.
With James Conner sidelined, the Rams, who are a top-10 QB hurry team despite rarely blitzing, could be more aggressive than normal.
I don’t trust Dobbs to produce viable fantasy numbers in such a spot. His story has been a good one through five weeks, but he won’t be on my streaming radar at any point over the next month unless we see him grow as a passer.
Matthew Stafford: It’s funny what having your WR1 active can do for you. Stafford posted his highest QB Rating of the season in the Week 5 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, and it resulted in his best fantasy finish of the season, as well.
He has a pair of target magnets. WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua saw 67.6% of the targets last week, and that should be enough to elevate his fantasy floor. As encouraging as that is, I need to see a ceiling game from Stafford before projecting it.
For the optimistic crowd out there, Stafford, my QB12, did see his 25 attempts against Arizona last season net 249 yards. With the Cardinals allowing the eighth-most yards per pass attempt, there is an upside to chase if you’re worried about Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins without star WR Justin Jefferson or Detroit QB Jared Goff playing outdoors.
Running Backs
James Conner: The veteran running back will continue his streak of having missed time in every season of his career after being placed on IR Tuesday afternoon. Conner will be eligible to return to action in Week 10 against the Falcons and should remain rostered, given his 17.5 touch-per-game role before suffering the knee injury.
Emari Demercado: The top waiver wire add of Week 6 was the only Cardinals back to play last week outside of Conner, and while I don’t expect that to be the case this week, he should handle the vast majority of the work.
Demercado is a rookie out of TCU who averaged 4.7 yards per carry during his collegiate career but was never in a true lead role. The Rams haven’t been great against the run-up to this point (22nd in yards per carry), but they did hold Conner to 108 yards on 34 carries last season.
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I think you can get away with flexing Demercado this weekend in a pinch, but in a perfect world, you have enough depth to bench him this week and evaluate. If he looks like the real deal (and plays ahead of Keaontay Ingram), plan on firing him up against the Seahawks in Week 7.
Kyren Williams: His stock is dropping, but he is still a viable RB2 in a favorable matchup as a touchdown favorite.
Williams is the unquestioned top dog in this backfield; my concern is that the Rams go to a pass-centric offense with the understanding that a Kupp/Nacua target is worth more than a Williams rush attempt.
Still, Williams has proven plenty capable of cashing in valuable touches, and while he may not be the reason they matriculate the ball down the field, his ability to finish drives holds value. He ranks in the Alexander Mattison/Jerome Ford tier for me this week: boring but playable.
Wide Receivers
Marquise Brown: The gains recently have been minimal, but Hollywood’s weekly finish has improved every week this season (45-26-19-18-17). I’m not betting on that continuing, but with 10 targets in the majority of his games and a score in three of his past four, the floor looks far higher than I was projecting it to be.
The touchdown last week came with Dobbs identifying single coverage and exploiting it from 25 yards out. Brown has the type of speed to make plays like that consistently, so it was encouraging to see Dobbs correctly read the play and execute. That said, single coverage situations aren’t likely to be the norm, given the lack of proven talent complementing Brown.
He’s a fine option that falls one spot behind Michael Pittman in my ranks this week — both being experienced playmakers with a nice target share in a questionable offense.
Michael Wilson: The hype around Wilson after his 7-76-2 performance against the 49ers in Week 4 was a bit much. Yes, the rookie possesses the physical tools to succeed at this level, but his development was always going to be a bumpy one in an offense that carries plenty of risk.
He was WR6 in Week 4, and that is one of two finishes he has inside the top 55 at the position this season. I have nothing against him as a depth option, but holding out hope for him to turn into a piece that you can consistently use is far too optimistic.
He’s in the Quentin Johnston/Jahan Dotson range for me, where you are hoping he capitalizes on a few big-play opportunities.
Cooper Kupp on the Rams’ opening drive:
5 catches, 56 yards on 6 targets
I missed watching this dude ball out
— Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Cooper Kupp: Yeah, he’s back. On his first drive of the season, he caught five of six targets for 56 yards. No big deal – just an elite player going about his business. The Rams told us they weren’t going to hold him back, and they certainly didn’t lie, as he was on the field for 95% of their offensive snaps.
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If you drafted late in the process this summer, you likely landed Kupp at a nice discount. Now is your time to make your move. The odds are good that you have some nice depth around Kupp, pieces that I’d consider selling to build a super team as we approach the midway point of the fantasy season.
Kupp should be considered nothing less than a tier-one receiver the rest of the way, and with some inconsistencies toward the top of the WR board (Justin Jefferson is out, Amon-Ra St. Brown is dinged up, Chris Olave is struggling, etc.), he gives you a nice edge over many teams that went WR early in your draft.
Puka Nacua: Kupp was fully unleashed last week, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at Nacua’s usage stats. He was on the field for every single snap, and he was earning targets at a high level – what else is new? Per the Week 6 Cheat Sheet:
- Weeks 1-4: 32.5% target share
- Week 5: 32.4% target share
Nacua, not Kupp, was the target of Stafford’s first pass last week, and the 22-yard designed fade was a thing of beauty to get him into the end zone. I don’t think he will be this productive (7-71-1) consistently next to Kupp, but it was nice to see proof of concept.
Nacua slides in nicely into the low-WR2 tier for me, alongside fellow second options on their team in Tyler Lockett and Christian Kirk.
Tutu Atwell: The Rams function almost exclusively out of three receiver sets, and that is going to keep Atwell on the field and thus worthy of a fantasy roster spot.
That said, his receiving yardage has declined each week this season, and his five targets in Kupp’s debut were easily a season-low.
It seems clear that he is the one most likely to get squeezed every week with Kupp back doing Kupp things – he’s easily outside of my top 40 receivers this week.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz: On one hand, he has eight targets or a touchdown in four of five games this season, but on the other, he is averaging just 6.6 yards per catch.
I’m more worried about the latter than I am encouraged by the former. Remove Arizona’s most lopsided loss of the season, and Ertz is averaging 23.3 yards per game. As nice as the volume is, his inability to turn those looks into fantasy points is concerning.
At 32 years old, I think it’s more likely that his target count will decline than his per-catch production will improve. He’s more of a TE streamer than someone I view as a player you can count on from this point forward.
Tyler Higbee: The good news is that he was on the field for 92.9% of snaps last week. Unfortunately, in the leagues I play in, snap count isn’t a stat that is rewarded with fantasy points. Despite always being on the field, Higbee earned just three targets.
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If Kupp and Nacua are going to demand anywhere close to two-thirds of the targets, there just isn’t room for a third pass catcher consistently.
Higbee caught all 12 of his targets against the Cardinals last season (134 yards) and is a viable streamer in deeper leagues this week. I just prefer the Logan Thomases and Dalton Schultzes of the world.
Should You Start Marquise Brown or Michael Thomas?
This one truly depends on the state of your matchup. Thomas locks in 8-10 points for you and there’s value in that. Brown, on the other hand, boasts a sub-60% catch rate but has been able to pay the fantasy bills by finding the end zone in three of his past four.
In a vacuum, I prefer Brown. Yes, he carries the more volatile skill set, but he is getting enough chances (8.4 targets per game) for me to sign up for the risk.
Should You Start Puka Nacua or Michael Pittman?
Pittman isn’t much different than Thomas in that his volume doesn’t translate to a ton of upside. The floor is nice, but given that, we saw Nacua thrive next to Cooper Kupp last week, he has the upside edge without a significant target dip.