Although initially signed to be the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears, Andy Dalton’s job and fantasy football outlook are anything but secure as the season draws near. Given the uncertainty surrounding his role on the team and the franchise in general, should you consider drafting Dalton at his current ADP for fantasy in 2021?
Andy Dalton’s fantasy outlook for 2021
For as much as people like to poke fun at the flaws of Dalton, he’s been able to carve out a decent fantasy career since 2011. While he has not been a QB1 since 2013 (QB4), he averaged 3,510 yards and 24 total touchdowns a season from 2011 to 2019. He ranks ninth in passing yards (31,594) and 10th in passing touchdowns (204) over that time.
Dalton’s 2020 season with the Cowboys
In 2020, on a new team for the first time in his career, Dalton was serviceable for the Dallas Cowboys, filling in for the injured Dak Prescott. However, he had his own share of issues staying on the field.
Dalton came in during the Week 5 game when Prescott suffered his gruesome ankle injury and started the next two games. However, in Week 7, he took a brutal hit to the head while attempting to slide, which resulted in Dalton suffering a concussion and missing the next two games. During his recovery, Dalton also contracted COVID-19 which he said “hit [him] hard.”
In total, Dalton started in nine games and appeared in 11 total. He completed 65% of his passes (216 of 333) for 2,169 yards with 14 TDs and 8 interceptions while averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game as the QB31. In games in which Dalton started and finished, he was the QB18 with 19.8 ppg, averaging 24.7 of 37.7 passing for 247.8 yards and 1.75 passing TDs. That’s…not awful.
It’s certainly better than Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky, who started for the Bears last season. Here’s the problem — Dalton still has to win the job over No. 11 overall pick Justin Fields. While he might have the role come Week 1, eventually Fields will vault him and become the Bears QB1. Dalton’s fantasy value, while limited, is also fleeting as the rookie gains reps and confidence.
Fantasy projection
When you create projections, you have to build a narrative. What is the team in question going to look like in 2021? How do the players mesh, coaches, strength of schedule, losses/additions, etc.? I bring this up for the Bears as there are more questions than answers.Â
For starters, at some point, there will be a change at QB from Dalton to Fields. This could have happened in training camp, but head coach Matt Nagy has all but said this is Dalton’s job. More than likely, it occurs during the season once the crowd in Soldier Field grows restless. Once that change is made, the offense completely shifts on its head to feature a big-armed, dual-threat QB.Â
Issue No. 2 is that Nagy (and even GM Ryan Pace) are likely losing their jobs. They are both on the hot seat, and it’s hard to envision them surviving the 2021 season. I am already looking forward to Joe Brady coaching Fields in 2022, but that’s a topic for a different time. If Nagy were ousted, it would mean a change in play calling.Â
The issue with all of this is trying to nail when this change happens. Dalton came to Chicago under the pretenses of being their starting QB. But I don’t think the Bears would have made that move if they knew Fields would be there, even if Dalton does have familiarity with OC Bill Lazor.
It is hard to see Dalton starting past Week 3 or 4, and his projections are based on this. Currently, Dalton is sitting at around 120 attempts across four games (three starts) with approximately 800 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Andy Dalton’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Dalton is going an ADP of 202.8 in 1QB formats and has a 114.8 ADP in superflex formats. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Dalton has an ADP of 285.77. On Fleaflicker, Dalton is going largely undrafted in 1QB leagues with an ADP of 357.
Should you draft Dalton in 2021 for fantasy?
Unless you believe in Dalton being the starting quarterback all season or at least 14 weeks, I would not advise drafting Dalton in fantasy. At best, Dalton is a QB3 on a superflex roster for as long as he has the starting gig. But his value evaporates the minute Fields steps on the field. The former Heisman finalist could be the most talented QB in franchise history.
