What is Alvin Kamara’s fantasy outlook for 2021, and is he still one of the safest running backs in fantasy football at his high ADP? Kamara was the engine that propelled the New Orleans Saints offense in 2020. He averaged 19.6 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets), 113 total yards, and 25 PPR fantasy points per game. He finished as an RB1 in 80% of his games. Now, he and the Saints’ other skill position players will head into 2021 without Drew Brees, who’s been the starter since 2006.
Alvin Kamara’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Even with Brees’ retirement, you shouldn’t feel uneasy about Kamara’s fantasy outlook. Whether it’s Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill entering the season as the starter, Kamara should continue to be the focus of Saints head coach Sean Payton’s offense.
Vacated targets in New Orleans
With wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Jared Cook moving on to new teams, the Saints have 174 available targets. Kamara has averaged 6.8 targets, 5.4 receptions, and 47 receiving yards per game since 2017. Christian McCaffrey is the only running back who ranks higher in each of those statistical categories.
Alvin Kamara’s statistical body of work is unbelievable
Kamara will also continue to be leaned upon as a runner. Since 2017, he’s averaged 11.2 rushing attempts and 56 rushing yards per game. Kamara has also been one of the most efficient running backs over that time frame, averaging 1.2 fantasy points per opportunity.
The 26-year-old running back has turned 672 career rushing attempts into 3,340 yards and 40 touchdowns. Kamara has caught 326 passes for 2,824 receiving yards and 15 additional scores. In fact, he’s the first running back in NFL history with 500+ rushing yards and 500+ receiving yards in each of his four seasons.
Kamara has stockpiled 1,305 PPR fantasy points up to this point in his career. McCaffrey (1,180) ranks second, and Todd Gurley (1,148) is third in points since 2017. Kamara should continue to put up points in 2021 regardless of who is under center.
Payton has a history of leaning heavily on his running backs between the tackles and as receivers out of the backfield. He does an excellent job of utilizing his RBs in New Orleans, as they have averaged 34 opportunities per game.
Saints’ offensive line has historically been stout under Sean Payton
The team has also consistently deployed one of the top offensive lines in the NFL since Payton’s arrival. Further helping matters, New Orleans returns all five of its starters this season.
Is Latavius Murray a threat to Alvin Kamara’s opportunity share?
Latavius Murray has settled into a backup role since joining the Saints in 2019. Murray accumulated 656 rushing yards last season on 146 attempts — nearly identical statistical production to 2019 — in which he had 637 rushing yards on 146 attempts.
He hasn’t been used much as a receiver out of the backfield, however. Over the last two seasons, Murray has amassed 57 receptions for 411 yards. He’s one-dimensional, which is unusual for a skill position player in Payton’s offense.
Alvin Kamara’s fantasy projection
We have Kamara projected for around 290 opportunities, 1,600 total yards, and 12 touchdowns in 2021. He can be viewed as a high-end RB1. The only other Saints player who projects to see more targets than Kamara is wide receiver Michael Thomas.
Alvin Kamara’s ADP
When reviewing redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker, Kamara is coming off boards as the 1.04 overall. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Kamara has an ADP of 3.53 as the RB3 overall. Likewise, his ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is 4.4.
Should you draft Kamara in 2021?
Kamara is certainly worth investing in at this ADP. He still deserves to be considered near the top of drafts by fantasy managers. His dependability as a receiver sets him apart from other running backs with a similar ADP, such as Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry.
