One of the top running backs in the NFL and fantasy football, New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Kamara’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Alvin Kamara’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Kamara has made his money as a pass-catching back. He is one of the best we have seen out of the backfield, and at this point, we should rename the Texas/angle route after him, given how often he’s run it.
With that said, we saw a different Kamara last season. Without Drew Brees under center and Jameis Winston suffering a torn ACL midseason, Kamara set a new career-high rushing average at 17.5 attempts per game (12 games). His targets took a hit, dropping from 7.1 in 2020 to 5.4 in 2021.
In 13 games, Kamara rushed 240 times for 898 yards (3.7 ypc) with four touchdowns. As noted, his targets did drop. However, he was still No. 6 among RBs with 67 targets. Of those 67 targets, Kamara hauled in 47 passes (T-9th) for 439 yards (7th) and five touchdowns.
Kamara still brings a high floor for fantasy in 2022
Without question, this was a substantial drop from the year prior, where Kamara combined for 21 touchdowns (16 rushing) and scored 377.8 PPR points as the RB1 (25.2 PPR/game). But given the offense and missing four games, it’s hard to be overly disappointed with his RB8 showing and 18.1 PPR/game.
Efficiency has been the name of Kamara’s game. Last year represented the first time his yards per carry dipped below 4.6 ypc. Yet, he still continued his streak of finishing inside the top12 in every season despite playing on a team with a new quarterback that did not have a WR1 and ranked 25th in EPA/play and 28th in EPA/rush. Kamara was an RB1 in seven of 13 games and was in the top 24 (RB2 or better) in 70% of his contests. That’s remarkable and represents the talent he brings.
Things should be better in 2022 on the field. What concerns me is things off of it. Kamara and his legal team are still in the early stages of dealing with an off-field incident in Las Vegas on the day of the Pro Bowl.
His legal case was pushed back to Aug. 1, then again to Sept. 29. It’s growing increasingly that this will be a 2023 matter and not one for this season. Nevertheless, Kamara, who is facing two battery-related charges, could be suspended in 2022 should the case be heard in time and the NFL conducts its own investigation.
Until we have a definitive answer or see a new date for the court proceedings, there is no guarantee Kamara will be available all season. If he slips in drafts, every fantasy manager will need to consider the risks and potential rewards in selecting Kamara in the early rounds. After the handling of the Deshaun Watson legal situation, it’s hard for me to see Kamara being suspended and is someone I’m drafting with that same mindset.
How the Saints’ depth chart impacts Alvin Kamara’s fantasy projection for the season
The Saints are an intriguing team. At one point, it was viewed as one of the worst head coaching vacancies in the NFL, given the roster and being roughly $80 million over the cap. However, things aren’t quite as bleak in the Big Easy.
Dennis Allen has taken over as head coach following his promotion as the team’s DC, a position which he had held since 2015. By promoting from within, the coaching staff saw marginal turnover as Pete Carmichael will return for his 17th season with the team, 14th as the offensive coordinator.
According to Allen, all signs point to Winston being ready to go in Week 1, giving stability to the position. Winston was playing well last season before his injury, suggesting he learned several lessons while undergoing his “QB masterclass” from Brees and Sean Payton.
The only key loss the Saints suffered in the offseason was that of LT Terron Armstead to the Dolphins. But the Saints quickly filled the gap in the depth chart by selecting Trevor Penning with the No. 19 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
The Saints should be a more well-rounded offense in 2022
The playmakers should be vastly improved in 2022, taking some of the attention off Kamara. The Saints will have a No. 1 wide receiver as Michael Thomas is expected back after missing nearly two seasons due to his ankle.
New Orleans also added Ohio State WR Chris Olave with the No. 11 pick. Olave can be both a field stretcher and an intermediate target for the Saints. Marquez Callaway showed massive upside, and they have a young TE in Adam Trautman, who is primed to break out in Year 3. Also, the Saints added a hometown kid by the name of Jarvis Landry to the roster following his release from the Browns.
The Saints will be fighting tooth and nail with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the top seed in the NFC South. They’ve even won the last four regular-season matchups against the Bucs.
The only way the Saints pull this off is by utilizing Kamara as much as possible. Barring injury or suspension, Kamara should once again bring top-12 upside to fantasy managers willing to take the risk.
Kamara’s ADP for 2022
It’s hard to get a true gauge of where Kamara’s value is at right now. Every draft is different from the other, so your mileage may vary. With that said, based on current ADP data, which will only get better with more “real” drafts taking place, Kamara is currently the RB8 off the board with an ADP of 16, placing him in the early part of the second round.
I must admit I missed the third-round or even later ADP I could draft Kamara at a few months ago. But this is what happens as news and perceptions change on a player. The market has undoubtedly been correcting itself over the last few months.
For me, where Kamara is at in drafts is still prime value. I currently have him as my RB8 and 13th overall player for fantasy football in 2022. In our 2022 fantasy rankings, he’s the RB10 and 14th overall.
If anything, it’s a coin-flip between Kamara and an eerily similar style RB in D’Andre Swift. At the back end of the first, I’m targeting one of these RBs to pair with CeeDee Lamb or Stefon Diggs. If I’m in the 8-10 spot, and Kamara is still there, it’s an instant pick.
At this point, I have enough confidence to believe Kamara will play the entire 2022 regular season and avoid a suspension. If you want to be more risk-averse, just take Swift or even Leonard Fournette and not even worry. No matter what, you’ll come away with a mid-to-low-end RB1 to anchor your fantasy roster.
