Following Chris Carson’s neck injury, the Seahawks and fantasy football managers alike turned to Alex Collins. Last week, Rashaad Penny returned from IR, and Pete Carroll mixed in DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer as well. What can we expect the Seahawks’ backfield to look like in Week 8, and can we trust Collins in fantasy lineups?
Alex Collins is still the best fantasy option in the Seahawks’ backfield
We’ll start out with the good news: Collins appears likely to be active in Week 8, despite concerns he could miss the game.
More good news is that Collins remains the primary back in Seattle. If you are going to use a Seahawks RB, it should be Collins. Since becoming the starter in Week 5, Collins is averaging 17 carries per contest and posted a mid-RB2 game in Week 6.
Collins’ snap share took a big hit in Week 7
Now for the bad news: Collins’ bell-cow role disappeared last week. The return of Penny saw Collins’ snap share go from 71% in Week 5 and 59% in Week 6 all the way down to 39% in Week 7. Penny played 36% of the snaps, and Homer saw 21%. It was a true committee.
Additionally, Collins ran a season-low 4 routes (excluding his first week with the team in Week 2, where he barely played). For comparison purposes, Collins ran 22 routes in Week 5.
What should fantasy managers expect from Collins in Week 8?
While numbers are significant, this is a situation where watching the game was key. Understanding why the snap counts were what they were is crucial to projecting what this backfield may look like going forward.
Although Collins and Penny essentially played the same number of snaps, Collins was clearly the preferred back in the second half. After playing the first two series, Collins gave way to Penny for the remainder of the first half until the final play or two. It looked to me as if Carroll was giving Penny the opportunity to take control of the backfield and become the guy. Penny failed to do so.
The move back to Collins in the second half should give fantasy managers at least a moderate degree of confidence that he remains a startable option in Week 8.
With that said, Collins’ upside is not what it initially was when he took over for Carson. He’ll likely cede passing down work to Homer or Dallas and some early-down work to Penny.
Better fantasy matchup in Week 8
Collins will have to rely on carries and touchdowns to score fantasy points. He’s caught just 6 passes over his last four matchups. He’s simply not being used in the passing game anymore.
The good news is his dud last week can largely be attributed to the Saints’ elite run defense. The Saints allow the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. On the other hand, the Jaguars allow the 12th-most fantasy points to the position. While not a matchup to attack, they’re certainly not one to fear like the Saints were last week.
The Seahawks are also field-goal favorites in this one. The past two weeks, they were underdogs. We know that if Carroll had his way, the Seahawks would literally never throw a pass. At one point last week, he called eight consecutive run plays. If the Seahawks can maintain a neutral-positive game script, they are going to run the ball a lot. Furthermore, Collins will get the majority of the carries.
Should fantasy managers start Collins this week?
At this point, Collins is more RB3 than RB2. Fantasy managers can certainly do worse than a running back slated for 12-15 carries and goal-line work. However, the likelihood of a smash game from Collins is low.
Collins remains a decent enough injury replacement, but he’s not someone you should be trying to force into your lineups. Odds are, he will need to score to reach double-digit fantasy points. At the same time, he does have a floor above zero.
I would definitely start Collins over fringe guys like Mike Davis, J.D. McKissic, and Michael Carter. Yet, I would not start him over RBs with more reliable roles like Devontae Booker, Damien Harris, or Antonio Gibson.
