AJ Dillon is entering his fourth season with the Green Bay Packers and is coming off of back-to-back seasons north of 210 touches despite playing behind Aaron Jones. The viability of this offense without Aaron Rodgers under center is a concern that fantasy football managers will have to consider before adding the 25-year-old to their roster.
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AJ Dillon’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
Dillon’s ability to truly flourish as a fantasy asset is going to be capped as long as Aaron Jones is a part of this team.
The veteran back is still just 28 years old, averages over 5.0 yards per carry for his career, and has caught at least 47 balls in four straight seasons. So until there is a reason to reduce his workload, a committee situation is as good as it will get for Dillon.
Of course, the departure of Rodgers leaves plenty of question marks as to the viability of this offense. Or does it? Here’s a snapshot of how the 2022 Packers fared:
- Points Per Game: 21.8 (14th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.5 (14th)
- Pass Rate: 58.6% (18th)
- Red-Zone Offense: 51.9% (24th)
They weren’t any good last season, so what are we worried about? In a less-than-optimal offensive surrounding, Dillon was around 1,000 total yards with seven scores.
I’m telling you, guys.
AJ Dillon is going to get a TON of work in this offense this year now that Matt LaFleur has full control.
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) August 11, 2023
Is Dillon a Good Fantasy Pick?
Do I think there is risk in Dillon? I do, but with an ADP outside of the first seven rounds, the reward potential far outweighs that risk. In terms of positional rank, he is being drafted where he finished last season, and I view that as a reasonable expectation before baking in the potential of his growth within a new-look offense or an injury to Jones.
Over the past two seasons, Dillon is averaging more points per touch than Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara. That’s not to say he is as good as those options or that he’d sustain that efficiency if given more work, but I do think his skill set elevates his floor on what I expect to be a conservative offense.