AFC South Standings: Could Texans and Colts Come Down to a Coin Flip?

The AFC South has developed into one of the most intriguing divisions in the NFL with the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars tied at 8-6 entering Week 16. With three weeks to play, there is still the possibility that the Colts and Texans could be separated by a coin flip — which could also determine the winner of the AFC South.

With the assistance of the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s take a look at how the Colts and Texans could tie on all 11 of the NFL’s playoff tiebreakers, requiring a coin flip to separate them.

How Could the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts Be Decided by a Coin Flip?

The AFC South, in general, is on a knife edge, but the situation between the Colts and Texans is particularly close.

With the two teams set to face each other in Week 18, there’s a high potential that which of them finishes higher in the division is not decided until that week.

Meanwhile, there’s also a scenario where the two teams could be so closely matched this season that it requires a coin flip to separate them.

First and foremost, the two teams have to be tied in terms of overall record after Week 18 for this to even matter. With the two of them facing off in Week 18, they would both need to be 2-1 or 1-2 in the next three games for a tie to occur.

For our scenario, we need them both to go 2-1 with a specific set of results.

• The Colts defeat the Atlanta Falcons (Week 16) and Las Vegas Raiders (Week 17), but lose to the Texans in Week 18.
• The Texans defeat the Cleveland Browns (Week 16) and Colts (Week 18), but lose to the Tennessee Titans in Week 17.

If that pair of results occur, Houston and Indianapolis would be tied in terms of head-to-head record, division record, record in games against common opponents, and conference record. Let’s go tiebreaker by tiebreaker and examine how:

Head-to-head record: The Colts defeated the Texans 31-20 back in Week 2, so if the Texans defeat them in Week 18, the two teams would be 1-1 against each other.

Division Record: The Colts are 3-2 entering Week 16, and the Texans are 2-2. If Houston loses to Tennessee and defeats Indianapolis, both teams would be 3-3 within the division.

Common Opponents: The Texans and Colts have 10 common opponents, and in the scenario above, would both be 7-5 in those 12 games.

• Atlanta Falcons:
  Indianapolis would defeat the Falcons in Week 16
  Houston lost 19-21 to Atlanta
• Baltimore Ravens:
  Indianapolis won 22-19 against Baltimore
  Houston lost 9-25 to Baltimore
• Carolina Panthers:
  Indianapolis won 27-13 against Carolina
  Houston lost 13-15 to Carolina
• Cincinnati Bengals:
  Indianapolis lost 14-34 to Cincinnati
  Houston won 30-27 against Cincinnati
• Cleveland Browns:
  Indianapolis lost 38-39 to Cleveland
  Houston would defeat the Browns in Week 16
• Jacksonville Jaguars:
  Indianapolis lost 21-31 and 20-37 to Jacksonville
  Houston won 33-17 against Jacksonville and then lost 21-24
• New Orleans Saints:
  Indianapolis lost 27-38 to New Orleans
  Houston won 20-13 against New Orleans
• Pittsburgh Steelers:
  Indianapolis won 30-13 against Pittsburgh
  Houston won 30-6 against Pittsburgh
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
  Indianapolis won 27-20 against Tampa Bay
  Houston won 39-37 against Tampa Bay
• Tennessee Titans:
  Indianapolis won 23-16 and 31-28 against Tennessee
  Houston won 19-16 against Tennessee but would lose Week 17

Conference Record: Both the Colts and Texans currently have four losses in games against the AFC. If the Texans lose to Tennessee and Indianapolis loses to Houston, both teams would finish with a 7-5 conference record.

That brings us down to the strength of victory (SOV) tiebreaker. Currently, the Texans have a four-game lead in SOV and would add at least another 19 with wins over the Browns and Colts. Indianapolis would add a minimum of 12 wins with victories over the Falcons and Raiders.

MORE: NFL Standings and Playoff Picture Week 15

That would leave a gap of 11 wins in SOV that need to be made up for the Colts. However, including the five games directly involving Houston and Indy, 32 of the 48 remaining games in the NFL have an impact on the SOV of one team or the other.

There are multiple scenarios within that for how the two teams could end up tied on SOV after Week 18. The situation for the strength of schedule tiebreaker is similar.

It’s the Colts with a three-game advantage this time. Indianapolis will add a minimum of 24 wins to their SOS, and Houston will add a minimum of 27 wins to theirs. That would leave them equal before we start calculating all of the other games. There are multiple permutations for how the Colts and Texans end up with the same SOS after Week 18.

That then brings us to the tiebreakers involving points and touchdowns. In terms of relative rankings for points for and points against in the conference and the league, a lot can still change. The two teams are tied on 18 for conference ranking, and the Texans are sitting at 30 compared to 35 for the Colts for the entire league.

Those rankings depend on the outcomes of all 48 remaining games this season. So again, there are multiple permutations that could play out.

The final three tiebreakers are net points in common games, net points in all games, and net touchdowns in all games. Houston currently has a net of +36 in common games, compared to -8 for Indianapolis. Therefore, we would need to see a swing of 44 points in the three remaining common games.

One such scenario would be if the Texans beat the Browns by a single point and then lost to the Titans by 20. If the Colts had then defeated the Falcons by 25 points, the two teams would be tied in terms of net points against common opponents.

Entering Week 16, Houston has a 10-point advantage in net points for all games. If Indy manages to overturn the 44-point differential in common games and beat the Raiders by a single point, the Texans would need to outscore the Colts by 35 for this tiebreaker to also be a tie.

MORE: NFL Week 16 Predictions From PFN

That leaves us with net touchdowns, where the two teams are currently tied. There are several ways the two teams can achieve the scenarios above and end up with the same number of net touchdowns. Entering Week 18, it would be clear how many more touchdowns the Texans would need to score than the Colts in order for this to be a tie.

If — and it is a massive if — all 11 of those tiebreakers end up being ties themselves, the 12th and final step for the NFL would be to decide which team finishes higher in the division would be a coin flip.

It might be a long shot, but if we get to Week 18 with this on the line, it could make for a fascinating game of football between the Jaguars and Texans.

On top of all of that, if Jacksonville goes either 1-2 or 1-1-1 over their final three games, that coin flip could decide who wins the AFC South this season.

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