The Houston Texans missed a golden opportunity to create further separation in the AFC South in Week 12, suffering a shocking home upset loss to the Tennessee Titans. The damage from that loss was mitigated with the Indianapolis Colts going down meekly at home to the one-loss Detroit Lions, however.
What does the AFC South race look like after 12 weeks? Let’s use Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor to evaluate postseason chances for the Texans and Colts.
Houston Texans’ Playoff Chances After Week 12
The Texans fell to 7-5 after disintegrating versus the Titans on Sunday in a 32-27 loss. They still hold a two-game lead over the second-place Colts, including two head-to-head victories over their divisional foe.
The Texans’ chances of winning the AFC South are at 69.8%. They now have a 77.1% chance of making the playoffs, a decline of almost 12 percentage points from last week.
Here’s how likely Houston is to land in each of the AFC’s seeding slots:
- No. 1 seed: <0.1%
- No. 2 seed: 0.5%
- No. 3 seed: 3.3%
- No. 4 seed: 66.0%
- No. 5 seed: 0.4%
- No. 6 seed: 1.8%
- No. 7 seed: 5.1%
Given the strength of the other division leaders (Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers), it is highly probable that the Texans end up as the No. 4 seed.
PFN’s model gives Houston a 0.4% chance of winning a Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
Texans’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 13: at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: vs. Miami Dolphins
- Week 16: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Week 18: at Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts’ Playoff Chances After Week 12
The Colts fell to 5-7 after a 24-6 loss to the Lions which was never particularly close. They remain two games behind the Texans for the division lead after the Titans did them a huge favor on Sunday by winning in Houston, Texas. However, their chances of earning a Wild Card berth narrowed with the loss.
The Colts’ chances of winning the AFC South are at 25.8%. Due to the loss, their chances of making the playoffs overall are down to 33.7%.
Here’s how likely Indianapolis is to land in each of the AFC’s seeding slots:
- No. 1 seed: <0.1%
- No. 2 seed: <0.1%
- No. 3 seed: 0.5%
- No. 4 seed: 25.4%
- No. 5 seed: 0.3%
- No. 6 seed: 2.1%
- No. 7 seed: 5.4%
Given how much the Colts trail the Texans, including being swept by their divisional rival, it’s difficult to envision Indy making up the ground needed. It would need to gain three games on Houston with only five left to play.
PFN’s model gives Indianapolis a <0.1% chance of winning a Super Bowl for the first time since Peyton Manning led them to victory in the 2006 season.
Colts’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 13: at New England Patriots
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at Denver Broncos
- Week 16: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 17: at New York Giants
- Week 18: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars