The 2024 NFL season is entering the home stretch, and the top seeds in both conferences remain up for grabs.
Who will end up No. 1 in the AFC? The Kansas City Chiefs remain the favorites after yet another Houdini finish against an outmatched opponent in Week 13, but the Buffalo Bills are nipping at their heels. And, somehow, the Pittsburgh Steelers still have a shot.
With the help of PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s run through scenarios and top-seed odds for the three teams with the clearest paths to claim the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
How Can the Kansas City Chiefs Clinch AFC No. 1 Seed?
The defending Super Bowl champions got off to a 9-0 start before suffering a Week 11 road loss to the Buffalo Bills. Since then, they’ve barely escaped two of the worst teams in the league, narrowly defeating the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders.
Kansas City formally clinched a playoff spot with its Week 13 Black Friday win, thanks to the Miami Dolphins’ loss on Thanksgiving. The Chiefs haven’t looked like the best team, as they’ve been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter of five straight games. But with an NFL-record 14 straight wins in one-score games, Kansas City continues to maintain an aura of inevitability.
At the end of Week 13, the Chiefs’ odds of landing the top seed is 60.6%, per PFN’s model.
The Raiders fumble it, the Chiefs recover it to seal the game ‼️#LVvsKC on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/WvNvUONRM5— NFL (@NFL) November 29, 2024
Kansas City still has the AFC’s best record but would lose to the Bills in a head-to-head tiebreaker for the top seed. So, the Chiefs must finish with at least one more win than Buffalo to finish higher in the standings.
As for the Steelers, the Chiefs will visit Pittsburgh in Week 17 for a game that could impact the standings depending on how the next few weeks shake out. If the Bills and Chiefs both lose at least one game before then, the Steelers could be playing for the No. 1 seed.
The Chiefs will own the No. 1 seed if they win out. That won’t be easy, as four of their final five games are against teams currently in the playoff picture, but Kansas City probably will be favored in each matchup.
Here’s Kansas City’s remaining schedule:
- Week 14: vs. LAC
- Week 15: at CLE
- Week 16: vs. HOU
- Week 17: at PIT
- Week 18: at DEN
How Can the Buffalo Bills Clinch AFC No. 1 Seed?
There are multiple ways for the Bills to finish as the No. 1 seed, but here’s the easiest: Buffalo wins out while Kansas City loses a game.
That’s a tough road, as the Bills have remaining games against the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams, but they also have one game against the New York Jets and two against the New England Patriots. With their current form and improving health outlook, it’s not out of the question.
After their Sunday Night Football win over the San Francisco 49ers, PFN’s model gives the Bills a 30.3% chance of landing the top seed.
It’s hard to envision the Chiefs losing more than two games the rest of the way, so the Bills can probably only afford one more loss—if any.
Here’s Buffalo’s remaining schedule:
- Week 14: at LAR
- Week 15: at DET
- Week 16: vs. NE
- Week 17: vs. NYJ
- Week 18: at NE
How Can the Pittsburgh Steelers Clinch AFC No. 1 Seed?
It’s hard to believe the Steelers even are in this position, but they are. Credit to head coach Mike Tomlin and his perpetual streak of non-losing seasons.
After their 44-38 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13, the Steelers have a 4.7% chance of landing the No. 1 seed. It’s obviously a long shot, but it’s not impossible!
As mentioned previously, the Steelers will host the Chiefs in Week 17. They’ll need to win that game to have any chance of earning the top seed.
Pittsburgh isn’t in control of its own destiny—it could win out and still finish with just the No. 3 seed. However, the Steelers would claim the No. 1 seed if they go undefeated down the stretch and the Bills and Chiefs both drop two games.
There are also ways for the Steelers to win tiebreakers against the Bills, but there are too many permutations to accurately determine that right now. Since the two teams don’t play each other, conference records would be the first tiebreaker. Both have a pair of AFC losses, though the Steelers have played one fewer conference game.
Here’s Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule:
- Week 14: vs. CLE
- Week 15: at PHI
- Week 16: at BAL
- Week 17: vs. KC
- Week 18: vs. CIN