Is New Orleans Saints tight end Adam Trautman a value at his current fantasy football outlook and ADP? He was a prospect I was very bullish on heading into the 2020 NFL Draft. New Orleans traded away several Day 3 picks in the draft in order to select him in Round 3. Trautman didn’t make much noise during the 2020 season, but the table is set for that to change in 2021.
Adam Trautman’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The Saints brought Trautman along slowly last season. He only played 15 snaps in the first two games, with 3 receptions through the first six. Trautman also developed into a reliable blocker and displayed flashes of his playmaking ability as the season progressed. He caught 15 of 16 targets for 171 receiving yards.
Even with the limited targets, were you aware that Trautman finished third among rookie tight ends in receiving yards? An excellent route runner, Trautman averaged 2.38 fantasy points per target in 2020.
In March, the Saints released tight ends Jared Cook and Josh Hill. Hill had joined the Saints as an undrafted free agent out of Idaho State in 2013. He played in 117 regular-season games with 62 starts. Hill caught 116 of 173 targets for 1,071 receiving yards with 15 touchdowns over that span.
Cook, on the other hand, joined the Saints in 2019. In two seasons, he played in 29 games, catching 80 of 125 targets for 1,209 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns.
How Cook and Hill leaving impacts Trautman
Both tight ends were productive for the Saints, but Cook was a poor blocker while Hill was a poor receiver for most of their time together. Hill played a high number of snaps on running plays while Cook was in the game for most passing downs. The release of both of these tight ends opens the door for Trautman to prosper in 2021.
There is no need to overcomplicate his situation. He’s in a position to see a significant increase in offensive snaps and targets. Trautman is also tied to an offensive mind in Saints head coach Sean Payton who actively involves tight ends.
This trend will continue whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is named the successor to Drew Brees. Did you know that New Orleans ran 295 offensive plays with two or more tight ends on the field in 2020? That equates to 27% of their offensive plays and is an increase of around 5% from the prior season.
Since 2006, Payton has provided Saints tight ends an average of 8 targets per game. The position has averaged 5.3 receptions, 59.4 receiving yards, and 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game in that timeframe. As a result, Trautman is positioned to be 2021’s breakout fantasy tight end.
Fantasy projection
It’s important to briefly examine Trautman’s collegiate career before discussing his projection for 2021. He became the first Dayton football player drafted in 43 years and the highest-drafted player from the Pioneer Football League.
Trautman finished his Dayton career with the school record for receptions in a season (70), touchdown receptions in a season (14), career receptions (178), and career touchdown receptions (31).
He earned a dominator rating of 38% by the time he left Dayton. This metric was first outlined by Frank DuPont in the book Game Plan. It represents a player’s “market share” or his percentage of the team’s offensive production. For example, a 35% or higher dominator rating indicates that a wide receiver has the potential to be a team’s No. 1 WR and/or a high caliber contributor. While 20-35% indicates a mid-level talent with situational upside, a rating less than 20% is a red flag.
Assuming he’s avoided a major injury as indicated and he’ll be available to start the season, we have Trautman projected for around 80 targets, 55 receptions, 700 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns next season.
Adam Trautman’s ADP
Trautman is readily available in the 14th round of fantasy drafts when reviewing redraft ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Trautman has an ADP of 171.75 as the TE20 overall. Meanwhile, his ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 148.9.
Should you draft Trautman in 2021?
If Trautman is indeed healthy, absolutely. Trautman is one of my favorite tight ends to target late in fantasy football drafts. The tight end position is as desolate as the wasteland in the Mad Max film series. Only the elite three of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller are trustworthy every week. Nevertheless, Trautman is in a great position to be just below this group in 2021.
