Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen recorded the second 100-catch season of his career last year in his first with the franchise, using a strong month to boost his final stat line. The team added target competition this offseason, but they are also banking on a big step forward from Bryce Young in his second season.
Should fantasy football managers spend the little draft capital that it requires to roster Thielen in 2024?
Should You Select Adam Thielen at His Current ADP?
ADP: 166th Overall (WR61)
I have my questions about Thielen’s volume (even if you think the target count remains, a 75.2% catch rate isn’t likely to stick) and the tailing off of him in the scoring department is equally as concerning.
- Last two seasons: 10 TDs on 173 catches
- Previous 3 seasons: 30 TDs on 171 catches
Could Thielen be a sneaky DFS option in the right spot or even a Best Ball asset down the stretch (four weatherproof games to end the season)? I’m not ruling it out, but in standard redraft leagues, I’m not interested.
His 14% dip in yards per target from his rate with the Vikings a season ago is something that I fear will continue this season and limit the appeal of a player that you’re rostering with the hopes of consistency.
Thielen’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Thielen enters his age-34 season with an impressive resume. In five of the past seven seasons, he’s either cleared 90 receptions or found the end zone 10+ times, production that has returned a profit with consistency for fantasy managers. And yet, he’s not getting any respect in drafts this season, even after producing in what figures to be the worst version of this Panthers offense we will see for quite some time.
PlayerProfiler Stat of the Day🤖
Through 6 weeks- Adam Thielen already has more 10 rec, 100 yard, & a TD games than any other Panther has had in NFL history🤯
He also has 24 career games with 100+ yards, the 3rd most all time among undrafted players🥉#PlayerProfilerStats pic.twitter.com/DX9ldxjX9w
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) October 18, 2023
Why?
Well, up to this point, Thielen has capitalized on circumstance. His glory days with the Minnesota Vikings came next to Stefon Diggs, and that made it essentially impossible for defenses to devote much in the way of resources to him. Kirk Cousins was calling the shots in those offenses, and that level of quarterback play helped maximize Thielen’s timing-based game.
Upon leaving Minnesota, he found success in Carolina. Kind of.
Yes, he finished last season with 103 catches, a total that tied Davante Adams for the 10th most in the league (38 fewer targets than Adams). When it comes to projecting forward, however, that number sounds way better than it is.
- 18 more catches than any other Panther had targets
- Career-low 9.8 yards per catch
- Career-low (since becoming a regular) TD rate
That first bullet point would be spun as a positive if the Panthers were returning the same core as last season, but they aren’t. Now in the mix is Diontae Johnson, a version of Thielen but six years younger, and Xavier Legette, a first-round pick who piled up 1,255 receiving yards last season at South Carolina.
The running game also got an upgrade in the draft with Jonathon Brooks, giving this team another mouth to feed. It should be noted that I still believe the Panthers will be trailing consistently and thus forced to air the ball out more than they’d like, but does that matter?
That was largely the case last season, and Thielen had just two double-digit PPR performances after Thanksgiving. His season-long numbers were buoyed by a four-game stretch during which he went over 100 yards, scored, and caught at least 10 passes three times.
That sort of spike is nice to see, but it’s tough to repeat given this roster’s look. Without that blip, the veteran receiver was mostly deadweight on fantasy rosters in 2023.