One of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and fantasy football, Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers projects to be an early positional pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Rodgers’ fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Aaron Rodgers fantasy outlook for 2022
I don’t know if Rodgers is a fan of reality TV shows, but it feels like he combined their storylines into one ridiculous season. There was controversy, missed time, and in the end, recognition and hardware. Questions about the future of his relationships, whether or not he would be moving, or even sailing off into the sunset away from the limelight. This was just what took place on or around the field.
Playing in 16 games due to positive COVID test midseason, Rodgers was the QB6 in 2021, completing 68.9% of his passes (366 of 531) for 4,115 yards with 37 TDs to just four INTs. Averaging 21 PPR points per game (QB8), Rodgers was as consistent as it gets despite rumors swirling this could be the final year for him with the Packers, the only team he has ever played for in his career.
Yet, the recently crowned back-to-back NFL MVP turned down his other suitors and returned to Green Bay this offseason. Still, things look different. While all focus was on Rodgers, there was another divorce brewing. In a move that surprised many, Davante Adams requested and was traded from the Packers to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Can Rodgers’ talent outperform his lack of trusted weapons
Whether or not you should draft Rodgers in fantasy for 2022 has nothing to do with his talent. That’s undeniable. He is one of the most talented and consistent QBs of all time, finishing as a QB1 or better in seven of the last eight years and in 61% of his games (119) over this span.
However, can Rodgers be as effective without Adams? Honestly, no one is entirely sure. Their chemistry was never more apparent in or near the red zone, with the duo combining for 64 touchdowns since 2016 (11.5 per year). That’s 23 more than the next closest QB/WR duo of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. 33% of Rodgers’ touchdowns have gone to Adams over that period.
Due to all of this, Rodgers is on many “do not draft” lists. I am not going to go that far, but his QB5+ ceiling is likely gone. A more realistic expectation is for Rodgers to be in the low-end QB1 range after losing Adams and lacking rushing upside. He’ll be able to spread the ball and keep the offense moving. But given the amount of high-caliber QBs in fantasy, there are enough options to where I am unlikely to roster Rodgers in 2022.
How the Packers depth chart impacts Rodgers’ fantasy projection for the season
There is no underselling the loss of Adams. Since 2016, he’s averaged 142 targets, 96.8 receptions, 1,198.7 yards, and 11.5 TDs. Both Rodgers and Adams have spoken about the unspoken connection, where a simple look at the line of scrimmage says everything, and they change the play without a word. There is no replacing that. When hard work and chemistry meet otherworldly talent, that’s what you get.
But in 2022, Rodgers has a whole new group at receiver. Not only is Adams gone, but so is vertical threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling, signing with the Kansas City Chiefs during free agency. Now, Rodgers will rely on Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and two rookies, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
Heading into Year 4 with the team, Lazard has shown flashes but lacked consistency. There are signs of hope for the potential WR1. Over the final five weeks, Lazard was the WR8 in PPR scoring thanks to 21 receptions for 290 receiving yards and five touchdowns to close the year out.
Will that carry over into 2022, or will one of the rookies step up? All eyes are on the development of Watson, one of the most athletic receivers in the class. But he is also unpolished and could be anything from an elite game-breaking option to the next MVS, a boom-or-bust vertical field stretcher.
However, it’s been Doubs who has flashed in camp while Watson sat out due to a knee injury. While Doubs has drawn criticism from Rodgers as he expects perfection, there has also been enough praise laid on him to show there is something building between them. Not only is Doubs ahead of Watson in his development, but he’s also passed him for fantasy too.
Only time will tell how this will shape out. In the end, unless Lazard takes off, I don’t see there being a singular WR that will be a must-start. Players like Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and AJ Dillon will be great, but the receivers could lack the volume and yardage to trust as Rodgers spreads the ball to everyone. I’ll take a few shots on Lazard and even Doubs later, but the rest will be potential waiver options.
Rodgers’ ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 95, Rodgers is coming off the boards as the QB10 in 1QB formats at the moment, placing him towards the end of round seven in 12-team fantasy leagues. In Superflex formats, Rodgers is unlikely to escape the second round, given the positional scarcity.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Rodgers is the QB12 as the 103rd ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I am ever so slightly lower on Rodgers as my QB13 and 113th-ranked player overall.
In 1QB leagues, Rodgers will be drafted, especially by those who wait on the position. While I tend not to draft a second quarterback in single-QB leagues, if Rodgers is there towards the end of the draft, at that point, he is a more stable option and has higher upside than any dart throw I am likely to make.
I have no issue with Rodgers as my QB1 if it falls that way, but I find far more often I land either Jalen Hurts (QB5) or Trey Lance (QB11) as I want the rushing upside they bring. In both Superflex and 1QB formats, I would not want to be looking for a starter once Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Derek Carr are drafted, as there is a sizeable tier gap to the Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields tier. Ideally, you have your starter or QB slots filled by that time.
