Last season, Jonathon Brooks’ inability to get healthy and stay healthy resulted in the Carolina Panthers having no running back depth. To address that, they brought in Rico Dowdle as a proven, reliable RB2. While not in a starting role, which belongs to Chuba Hubbard, is there fantasy football upside for Dowdle this season?
Rico Dowdle Fantasy Outlook
Let’s get the obviously out of the way first. Hubbard is the Panthers’ lead back. Dowdle is not coming for his job and is not a threat to his role. At the same time, though, Dowdle is far more interesting from a fantasy perspective than any non-Hubbard back on the Panthers last season.
Whenever we see an NFL team shove a ton of volume a running back’s way, it’s almost always for one of two reasons. Either that running back is truly elite and warrants every touch he can handle (i.e., Saquon Barkley). Or they don’t have a choice (i.e., Chase Brown).
No one entered last year having pegged Hubbard as one of the league leaders in opportunity share. He played 77.3% of the snaps and saw a 77.9% opportunity share. His 11.7% target share was 14th in the league. A lot of Hubbard’s production stemmed from elite volume.
Hubbard averaged just 0.71 yards per route run, 34th in the league. He was 33rd in yards per touch and 36th in yards created per touch. While his performance earned him an extension and a commitment from the Panthers, he did not actually play at a level that makes him undeniable.
I do like Hubbard and am targeting him in drafts. There’s talent, and he can absolutely outperform his ADP. But let’s not pretend like Hubbard is this mega talent whose workload is untouchable.
Coincidentally, Dowdle experienced something similar with the Cowboys last season. The team went into the season with a backfield consisting of just him and a completely finished Ezekiel Elliott. In what was supposed to be a timeshare, former head coach Mike McCarthy eventually realized Elliott was no longer an NFL-caliber running back.
From Week 12 onward, Dowdle averaged 20.3 carries and 2.1 targets per game. That is elite RB1 levels of volume. We no longer see many backs average over 20 opportunities per game. Dowdle was one of them.
Dowdle wound up averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game on the season. From Week 12 onward, he was at 13.8 PPG. As a reminder, he did this with Cooper Rush and Trey Lance at quarterback.
This tells us two things. Dowdle can handle the Panthers’ lead back role if something were to happen to Hubbard, and he can produce at a reasonably impactful level for fantasy.
Hubbard averaged 4.8 yards per carry last season, which was mighty impressive on an otherwise bad Panthers offense. However, there are some lingering concerns regarding his ability.
No one entered last year having pegged Hubbard as one of the league leaders in opportunity share. He played 77.3% of the snaps and saw a 77.9% opportunity share. His 11.7% target share was 14th in the league. A lot of Hubbard’s production stemmed from elite volume.
Hubbard averaged just 0.71 yards per route run, 34th in the league. He was 33rd in yards per touch and 36th in yards created per touch. While his performance earned him an extension and a commitment from the Panthers, he did not actually play at a level that makes him undeniable.
It’s hard to envision a scenario where Dowdle has standalone value. However, we can be reasonably confident he is the handcuff to roster.
If Hubbard missed time, rookie Trevor Etienne would undoubtedly see the field as well. However, it would be a surprise if he wasn’t second fiddle to Dowdle.
#Panthers GM Dan Morgan on Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle:
“We’re excited about both those guys, kind of a 1-2 punch. They both can catch the ball out of the backfield, they can both pass protect, and they’re both obviously really good runners that we’re excited about.” pic.twitter.com/w1he1dNN1I
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) March 26, 2025
The Panthers had a top 10 run-blocking offensive line last season and did not lose any of their big men.
Additionally, the Panthers project to be a better offense. Tetairoa McMillan gives them a true WR1. Bryce Young played much better over the final month of last season. A better offense as a whole gives Dowdle more upside if he winds up as the lead back.
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There is an area of fantasy drafts where all the handcuffs go. It starts around RB38 with Zach Charbonnet and ends around RB55 with Jaylen Wright. Rico Dowdle is in between at RB50, but obviously more toward the tail end. Yet, I believe he is a more confident handcuff and more likely to produce at least at the level of the starter he would replace than many of the guys ahead of him.
I have Dowdle ranked as my RB55, which is a negligible difference. However, when talking about RB4 and RB5 handcuffs, it’s really take your pick. I like making Dowdle the last running back on my bench.
Dan Fornek’s Rico Dowdle Projection
Rico Dowdle was allowed to serve as the lead back in Dallas for the 2024 season. And for the most part, he delivered.
Dowdle played in 16 games, carrying the ball 235 times for 1,079 yards and two touchdowns while adding 39 receptions (on 49 targets) for 249 yards and three touchdowns. Dowdle was the RB24 in PPR points per game (12.4) with four top 10 scoring weeks on the season. He finished the season with the 12th most yards after contact (621) behind a bad Dallas offensive line, although he showed a lack of explosion (3.8% explosive run rate) and a below-average ability to force missed tackles (RB79, 0.11% rate).
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Despite Dowdle’s success, the Cowboys elected to let him leave in free agency to pursue other options. That led the veteran running back to sign a one-year, $2.75 million contract with the Carolina Panthers. The move effectively tanked any positive momentum he had in 2025 for fantasy value now that he is splitting the backfield with Chuba Hubbard.
Dowdle can still have value in 2025. The Panthers wanted to split their backfield in 2024 when they drafted Texas running back Jonathon Brooks in the second round, but another torn ACL destroyed that plan. That likely means that Dowdle will be more than just a handcuff, especially when it comes to the third-down duties. He should be viewed as a high-variance RB3 in fantasy with the ability to provide an RB2 floor if Hubbard misses time with injury.
