After three straight years averaging north of 12.5 yards per catch and scoring on 14.9% of his catches at Georgia, we know that tight end Brock Bowers had an elite profile. The Las Vegas Raiders making him the 13th overall pick confirmed that, but no one could have seen a 112-catch, 1,194-yard, five-touchdown season coming.
Las Vegas upgraded the quarterback position this summer with Geno Smith and projects to have more offensive balance with rookie running back Ashton Jeanty providing a shot in the arm for this running game.
Is it possible that Bowers will not only sustain his success but also build on it and flirt with peak Travis Kelce status in terms of paying off an expensive price tag at your fantasy football draft?
Should You Draft Brock Bowers’ in Fantasy?
What were you doing as a 22-year-old?
Bowers won’t turn 23 until December. There’s still plenty of time in his 22nd year of life and yet, his resume already includes the single greatest reception season in Raider history, the single greatest reception season in NFL history by a rookie (four more than Puka Nacua’s 2023), and the most receiving yards by a rookie TE ever (68 more than Mike Ditka’s mark).
Yea, that’ll’ work.
If you want to see exactly how he did it, take six minutes out of your day and watch these clips. C’mon, it’s 0.4% of your day. You’ll enjoy it, I promise.
The NFL blessed us with 6 uninterrupted minutes of Brock Bowers highlights🙏🏼🙏🏼pic.twitter.com/wwyJiHr38R
— SleeperRaiders (@SleeperRaiders) June 9, 2025
The question fantasy managers are forced to grapple with this offseason isn’t the talent. We are well aware that Bowers is a special player and has rare upside in his second professional season, especially with more stability on the roster in terms of offensive balance and the quality of throws that will be aimed in his direction.
The question is one of opportunity cost. Bowers is coming off the board in the back-half of the second round in most leagues, which is an expensive price tag for a position that feels as deep as it’s ever been.
The tiers at tight end seem pretty locked in. It’s Bowers and McBride at the top with George Kittle occupying his own space as a Tier 2 option, the trio of Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson, and Kelce earning some love, and then upwards of a dozen TEs that are all being valued in a similar way.
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Is it worth jumping the line for Bowers in Round 2 instead of waiting a few rounds for Kittle or maybe 100 picks for a high pedigree member of this year’s rookie class?
It’s a tough sell for me. Not only is the recent history of rookie tight ends who averaged north of 40 receiving yards as a rookie checkered at best, but there are a lot of high-floor players that I view as safer that you have to pass on to add Bowers to your roster.
Ladd McConkey is an example of a player with a similar average draft position (ADP) that I’d rather draft. Like Bowers, he made it clear as a rookie that he doesn’t just belong at this level, but he deserves to be feared. The Chargers have fewer moving pieces than the Raiders (no QB change and while they also upgraded their backfield, it wasn’t with players that could alter play-calling the way the Raiders did), a higher level of expected quarterback play, and less in the way of target competition.
Oh, and let’s not forget that Bowers has two games against the Chargers (our sixth-ranked defense from last season) while McConkey gets the Raiders twice (22nd).
De’Von Achane and Bucky Irving are two running backs that I’m willing to buy high on and given how quickly that position runs out of names I trust (the rookies are fun, but once you get past the fourth round, the number of truly “stable” options runs dry in a hurry), I’m more likely to click on them than Bowers.
By no means am I anti-Bowers. He’s great and will continue to be great through the 2025 season and, hopefully, for the bulk of the next decade. That said, I do think there is something to be said for the risk that comes with change and at some further efficiency concerns to bake in now that the NFL has a year of film to react to (worth nothing that in his second meeting with divisional opponents last season, he caught 54.5% of his targets after catch 76% of his looks across the first matchups).
Price sensitivity and roster construction are the keys here. If Bowers were to fall below his ADP and thus, some of the names mentioned above, I’ll be circling the waters. I find it unlikely that you lose your league because you doubled down on the standout tight end, but expecting him to clone his success from a season ago is a bit more optimistic than I’m willing to be.
Dan Fornek’s Brock Bowers Fantasy Projection
Brock Bowers put together a prolific rookie season catching the football, remarkable for any player, let alone a tight end. He ranked sixth in the league in targets (150), third in receptions (112), and eighth in receiving yards (1,194). Serving as the first read on 28.0% of Las Vegas’s pass attempts, Bowers lined up in the slot for 56.1% of his snaps and out wide for 18.1%.
Bowers ultimately finished as the TE3 in PPR points per game (15.5), an elite number for any tight end season, much less a rookie. He had eight games with 16.0+ fantasy points, four games of 20+ fantasy points, and two games with 30+ fantasy points. The most impressive thing was how Bowers got there, ranking as the TE24 in average depth of target (6.0) but fourth among all pass catchers in yards after catch (599). A lot of that was the product of subpar quarterback play.
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The Raiders have not only upgraded their quarterback room by trading for Geno Smith but also bolstered their coaching staff with the additions of head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Bowers has wasted no time establishing himself as the focal point of the passing attack under the new regime.
Expecting 150 targets again is setting a lofty (but possible) goal. Still, the passes from Geno Smith should be far more accurate and further down the field than those from Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder. Bowers isn’t only a threat for the TE1 overall spot in 2025, but he can be a league winner if he maintains his target volume with his new offensive environment.
