The best thing about college football is that on any given Saturday, any team can truly win. Every year, teams deliver shocking upsets that shake up the landscape of the entire season.
It is hard to predict exactly where these upsets will happen, but one analyst is giving five picks where he sees an opportunity for some of the biggest programs in college football to fall short of expectations.
Adam Breneman Predicts 5 Upsets That Could Shake Up 2025 College Football Season
Adam Breneman, who hosts the “Next Up” podcast for Front Office Sports, recently predicted season-altering upsets for the 2025 season.
View this post on Instagram
Syracuse Over Tennessee, Week 1 (Aug. 30)
Syracuse and Tennessee will play each other in Week 1 on August 30, in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. With the Volunteers being a SEC powerhouse and the Orange historically not an ultra-competitive program, many analysts believe this will be a straightforward victory for Tennessee.
However, Breneman believes that with the change at quarterback for Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel’s offense, this game will be closer than people expect, potentially setting the stage for an upset.
“Tennessee is a 12.5 point favorite against the Orange, but with a new QB after the Nico saga, this one will be more competitive than people think,” Breneman said.
The Orange finished the 2024 season with a 10-3 record, winning 10 games, so it is not out of the question that, under head coach Fran Brown, they could take down Tennessee in week one and shock the college football world.
Duke Over Illinois, Week 2 (Sept. 6)
The Duke Blue Devils will host the Illinois Fighting Illini on September 6 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. While Illinois won ten games last season, finishing with a 10-3 record, and is returning the most starters in the Big Ten, Breneman thinks that Duke’s roster is still good enough to beat the Fighting Illini early in the season.
“The Blue Devils are coming off a solid 9-4 season,” Breneman said.
This prediction might not make as much sense given the overwhelming talent that Illinois head coach Bret Bielema is returning in 2025. This makes them a formidable Big Ten contender, and they should not have any problems with an ACC program, even if it is a road game.
Mississippi State Over Arizona State, Week 2 (Sept. 6)
Arizona State will travel to Starkville, Mississippi, to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs on September 6. The Sun Devils are coming off a successful 2024 season where they won the Big 12 and made an appearance in the College Football Playoff, finishing with an 11-3 record. In contrast, the Bulldogs had a challenging 2024 season, winning only two games.
Despite that stark contrast in recent performance, Breneman believes that Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby’s work in the transfer portal has made the Bulldogs capable of taking down the Sun Devils.
“Mississippi State flipped their roster completely this offseason with 33 transfers,” Breneman said.
This is another prediction that is hard to fully support. Despite the Bulldogs bringing in one of the biggest transfer portal classes in college football, it only ranked as the 26th-best nationally, according to some analyses.
That, combined with the Sun Devils beating the Bulldogs 30-23 in Tempe, Arizona, in 2024, makes it difficult to believe that Mississippi State will come out on top this season in their first meeting since then.
Arkansas Over Notre Dame, Week 5 (Sept. 27)
Arkansas will host Notre Dame in Fayetteville, Arkansas, on September 27. These two programs have never met before, but the Fighting Irish are coming off a National Championship appearance in 2024, where they lost to Ohio State, and are expected to be one of the best teams in the country once again.
While Breneman acknowledged that Notre Dame has the far superior roster, he suggests that the Fighting Irish could be worn out after facing two ranked teams, Miami and Texas A&M, before the Arkansas game.
“The Razorbacks could get a weak version of the Irish as they’ll be coming off nationally ranked Miami and Texas A&M,” Breneman said.
While Breneman makes a solid point about the schedule, a “weak” version of Notre Dame is still a much better football team than Arkansas. It is hard to imagine a world where the Razorbacks take down the Fighting Irish, especially given Notre Dame’s recent championship-level performance.
Washington Over Ohio State, Week 5 (Sept. 27)
Ohio State will face the Washington Huskies on the road in Seattle, Washington, on September 27. The Buckeyes are the reigning national champions, having defeated Notre Dame in the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship. They are expected to be one of the best programs in the sport again in 2025.
Despite the Huskies’ lackluster 2024 season, which ended with a 6-7 record, Breneman believes that the Buckeyes are prone to road upsets, and the passionate Washington fanbase could carry the Huskies to a surprising win.
“They lost to Michigan last year and Purdue in 2018,” Breneman said. “Husky Stadium will be rocking.”
Citing two previous upsets as evidence for another one seems like a somewhat simplistic analysis. With Washington not making many significant additions to a relatively weak Big Ten roster from a year ago, Ohio State should be able to navigate this game without major issues, especially as a national championship contender.
