Jonathan Taylor is too talented to fail. He may not have game-breaking fantasy football upside, but he’s a very safe option for managers. How good Taylor can be may depend on who plays quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts. With a situation likely to remain in flux, is Taylor a value or someone fantasy managers should avoid in 2025 drafts?
Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Outlook
Every year, there are some players that you just don’t have strong opinions on. Taylor is one of those for me. Not to bury the lede, but it’s hard to envision myself drafting him anywhere. That’s not meant to be a knock on Taylor. He’s incredibly talented and certainly a fantasy running back. He happens to go at a part of the draft where there are a lot of good players whom I like more.
Taylor has been a RB1 most of his career. Outside of his disastrous 2022 season, which followed his overall RB1 finish in 2021, the worst we’ve gotten from Taylor is 15.6 fantasy points per game.
In an era where just about every backfield has some sort of committee, Taylor is a bit of a throwback. He played 80.5% of the snaps last season and saw a league-high 88.4% opportunity share. That type of volume should be incredibly enticing for fantasy managers. Yet, it’s not for me.
Taylor’s problem is that he’s entirely reliant on rushing and touchdowns. That’s a rough combination on a team led by either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson.
Last season, Taylor saw an 8% target share. It was 7.6% the year prior. The absolute highest it’s ever been was 10.8%. And this was on an offense that was third in the league with a 48% neutral game script run rate.
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The Colts run a lot, which is obviously great for Taylor. But without any sort of receiving profile, Taylor’s season largely becomes a story of how many touchdowns he scored.
In 2021, Taylor found the end zone 20 times. He was the overall RB1. In 2020 and 2024, Taylor scored 12 times each. He was a mid RB1. In 2023, he punched it in 8 times. He was a low RB1. In 2022, Taylor scored 4 times. He was a mid RB2.
Taylor is simply not my cup of tea. He’s not the type of player I like to chase in fantasy. I know it feels unfair to say at his RB8 average draft position (ADP) that he’s being drafted close to his ceiling since we’ve seen him average 22.0 PPG, but he is. If you think he can score 20 touchdowns again, then you absolutely should be drafting him. I do not.
Counterpoint: JT was the RB19 in FP/G from weeks 1-15, before a couple of timely explosion games.
He’s also an overrated runner (outside top 20 RBs in EPA/Rush each of L3 seasons), is in a bad offense (24th in EPA/Play in ‘24), and has a poor receiving role (40th in RB target… https://t.co/vdm8dTOl4I
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) June 22, 2025
I have Taylor ranked as my RB11, which is only one spot below his RB10 ADP. When we start including the wide receivers that are typically available in the late second round, though, Taylor falls even further.
There’s nothing wrong with Taylor himself. But I won’t have any of him this season at his current price.
Dan Fornek’s Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Projection
Jonathan Taylor has had some up-and-down seasons since finishing as the RB2 in PPR in 2021 (21.9 PPG). Taylor missed five games in 2022 (13.3 PPG, RB18) and seven games in 2023 (15.6 PPG, RB12), limiting his impact in fantasy football.
Taylor played in only 14 games in 2024, but Indianapolis’s terrible passing attack led to the offense flowing through him. Taylor was fifth in carries (303), fourth in rushing yards (1,431), and ninth in rushing touchdowns (11) despite the missed games. That rushing production led him to his best fantasy finish since 2022 (17.6, RB7).
Over the last two seasons, Taylor has thrived in games without Anthony Richardson. In 13 games without his starting quarterback, Taylor has racked up 276 carries for 1,256 yards and 11 touchdowns while adding 24 receptions on 35 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. When healthy, the Colts have had success running their offense through the veteran running back.
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Taylor will likely be the focal point of the offense again in 2025, regardless of whether Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson wins the starting job. Indianapolis’s offensive line will have two new starters, but both players (center Tanor Bortolini and right guard Matt Goncalves) got experience in 2024. A top-five running back season is unlikely given his lack of work in the receiving game, but a top 10 finish is well within his reach given his volume as a rusher.
