We all assumed that Aaron Rodgers would take his talents to Pittsburgh, and we eventually got there. He’s on the wrong side of 40 and has finished under 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in each of his past two healthy seasons, thresholds that were once layups for this fantasy football star.
Rodgers might make the Steelers a playoff team in 2025, but is there any reason to believe he is capable of doing the same for your fantasy team?
Should You Draft Aaron Rodgers in Fantasy?
This is an interesting case. We saw glimpses of vintage Rodgers down the stretch of a lost 2024 season, and that’s obviously encouraging as he enters a stable franchise that has been starved for capable quarterback play for a few years now.
“I’m not the president of the Aaron Rodgers fan club or anything, but damn, dude — the guy played his ass off!”
– @Mark_Sanchez praises Aaron Rodgers’ performance last season and likes the Steelers’ move for him. pic.twitter.com/iVAdfMHWd8
— Dan Patrick Show (@dpshow) June 19, 2025
He was one of just eight QBs to reach double figures last season in terms of games with multiple touchdown passes and proved plenty comfortable with loading up a single receiver with work in the way that this Pittsburgh offense currently projects (Davante Adams had 68 targets in six games last winter).
There certainly is a path to mattering for Rodgers in deep fantasy leagues this season. Not in a “draft and hold” sort of way, but in a “read my weekly preview article and try to beat the market to him should his profile trend in a certain direction” sort of way.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
The Steelers play a very distinct brand of football, and it’s generally not great for QBs whose best days are behind them. That said, it’s unlikely that the grind your opponents into dust strategy will be employed down the stretch of this regular season (QBs faced from Weeks 13 to 16: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jared Goff in Detroit), leaving the door open for Rodgers to close 2025 like he did 2024 (250+ passing yards in three of his final four games, two of which saw him toss 3+ touchdowns).
But if we are dealing with probabilities and what is most likely to occur, I’m certainly in agreement with users on PFSN’s Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator in labeling him as an afterthought.
The deep passing numbers are trending away from him, something you’d expect for someone who will turn 42 years of age before this season wraps, but that’s not all.
The Rodgers you have in your mind’s eye is one making every throw imaginable inside the 20-yard line. It’s of the Packers putting all of their trust into his rare combination of decision-making and the ability to throw open windows.
Is that version of him still around?
Last season, he completed just 50.6% of his red zone attempts. Not only was that a significant dropoff from his three seasons prior (62.7%), it ranked 28th in the NFL, behind Pittsburgh’s last band-aid option in Russell Wilson (51.1%). That was in a situation with objectively more receiving talent than what the Steelers currently have access to, leading me to believe that the touchdown equity isn’t what we need to justify going this direction in any sort of standard format.
Dan Fornek’s Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Projection
From an NFL standpoint, Aaron Rodgers had an impressive season coming off a torn Achilles at 40 years old. The veteran quarterback completed 63.0% of his passes for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while helping both Davante Adams (WR10) and Garrett Wilson (WR21) be fantasy-relevant.
For fantasy managers, the season was less stellar. Rodgers averaged just 15.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the QB18 (minimum eight games played). Rodgers scored at least 17.0 fantasy points per game in every season from 2008 to 2021, but now has two straight healthy seasons under 16.0 points per game. Rodgers’s 1.7% turnover-worthy throw rate was the second-best in the NFL, suggesting he can still put the ball where it needs to go. However, he has also had two of his three lowest yards per attempt seasons since 2022.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Things likely won’t get better in 2025. Rodgers will be the starting quarterback, but this time he will be under center for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh had the seventh-lowest pass rate over expectation last season with Arthur Smith running the offense (-5.6%). Not only are the Steelers content running the football and letting their defense work, but they also lack the high-end pass catchers to maximize Rodgers’s ability to generate fantasy points outside of D.K. Metcalf.
Aaron Rodgers was a QB2 in fantasy points per game in 2025, but he also finished ahead of several young quarterbacks that we expect to take a significant step in 2025, like Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, Drake Maye, and C.J. Stroud. At best, Rodgers is a waiver wire streamer in single quarterback leagues and a QB3 in SuperFlex or 2-QB formats in his new offensive environment.
