T.J. Hockenson has 82 games on his NFL resume, and that includes a serious knee injury (torn ACL and MCL). That’s not a profile that most fantasy football managers are targeting, but he proved healthy as last season progressed and was a bright spot in the playoff loss to the Rams (five catches on five targets with a touchdown).
The tight end position is led by young history makers and some aging greats – how should you think of Hockenson as he enters his age-28 season?
T.J. Hockenson’s Fantasy Outlook
Hockenson’s resume is impressive. He’s caught 68% of his career targets and has been able to earn volume with consistency. At the tight end position, he’s been a stable source of production for the last half-decade, and by entering this season with a clean bill of health, there are plenty of reasons to think that he can be a key asset on a successful fantasy team.
Highest Pass Rates when a TE was on the field in 2024…
Mike Gesicki 85.3%
Jonnu Smith 79.3%
TJ Hockenson 78.0%
Noah Fant 76.2%
Evan Engram 71.0%
Kyle Pitts 70.7%
Zach Ertz 70.1%
Dalton Schultz 69.3%
David Njoku 69.2%
Jake Ferguson 68.7%
Tyler Conklin 68.7%
Brock Bowers 68.3%— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) May 30, 2025
That said, is the juice worth the squeeze?
We know the upside is capped. Forgetting that his quarterback is an unknown at the professional level and that two of his pass-catching teammates profile as much more impactful per-target players by nature of the routes they run.
Forget that.
Hockenson was scoreless in 10 regular-season games last season (62 targets and 41 catches) in a year where Sam Darnold was a Pro Bowl lock. The goose egg was a bit dramatic, but Hock has scored just 23 times in his career and has missed multiple games in four of six seasons.
What is the true upside?
In a 2024 season that was probably as good as it gets for this offensive environment, Hockenson’s best weekly finish at the position was TE5, and he was better than TE10 on just two occasions. The top of the TE board can’t be touched (Brock Bowers and Trey McBride have elite production under their belts and their physical primes ahead of them), and we suddenly have an incredible amount of similar depth at the once wasteland of a position.
Fantasy Football TE Tiers
- Tier 1: Brock Bowers and Trey McBride
- Tier 2: George Kittle
- Tier 3: Sam LaPorta, Evan Engram, David Njoku, and Hockenson
- Tier 4: Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, David Njoku, and Jonnu Smith
- Tier 5: Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, and Dalton Kincaid
And that’s a conservative list. Where does Isaiah Likely factor into this? Kyle Pitts still exists, meaning someone in your league will talk themselves into him. Jake Ferguson and Tucker Kraft play with pocket passing QBs and some limited pass catcher depth concerns around them.
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My fading of Hockenson is less about Hockenson and more about his price tag. I simply can’t justify paying the premium that comes with his name instead of either paying up for a potential league-winner or being the last team in my league to address the position, taking two cheap bites at the apple, or trusting myself to stream early before hopefully landing on a replacement-level option for an extended stretch.
Dan Fornek’s T.J. Hockenson Projection
Hockenson missed the first eight weeks of the season recovering from his 2023 torn ACL. It took him three weeks to get going, but eventually he rounded back into form. From Weeks 12 to 18, Hockenson averaged 6.6 targets, 4.0 receptions, and 49.0 receiving yards while averaging a 68.1% snap share. He continued that level in the Vikings’ lone playoff game as well, catching all five targets for 64 yards and a score. Hockenson was only the TE20 during that span (8.9 PPG), but did post three weeks with 10.0 or more fantasy points.
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Hockenson should enter 2025 completely healthy and back to his previous form (and 79% snap rate) next season. He will also benefit early in the season from Jordan Addison’s suspension, giving him more time to earn targets and build rapport with J.J. McCarthy in his first season as a starter. Hockenson has already shown he can be a fantastic fantasy tight end in Minnesota while competing with Justin Jefferson for targets, thanks to his TE1 finish with 14.6 points (from Weeks 1-16) in 2023.
The arrow is pointing up for Hockenson, but he is rarely placed in the same tier as the other elite tight ends in fantasy football. He has four career top 10 finishes at the tight end position, including two straight seasons in the top 5. He should be considered a lock for a top-five finish again in 2025 and has the upside to finish TE1 overall.
