With high-powered offenses and defenses that struggle to keep up, the NFC South has long been one of the most consistent pools of talent in the NFL. It’s also one of the more favorable divisions to target players in fantasy football. So who are the top 2019 fantasy football players to own?
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is coming off a trademark NFC South fantasy season. Each year a quarterback exceeds fantasy expectations and Ryan ranked behind only Patrick Mahomes in total points. He’s in the prime of his career and surrounded by outstanding talent. Ryan has 4,000+ yards and 20+ touchdowns in each of his last eight seasons. That said, it’s worth remembering that he finished this past season with 3 rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown, both career highs. If you exclude him, the Atlanta Falcons only scored 8 rushing touchdowns as a team. A plethora of injuries to their defense also saw them involved in numerous high-scoring shootouts throughout the year. Ryan often ended up throwing just to keep them in the game. With Dirk Koetter back as offensive coordinator and an upgraded offensive line, Ryan’s in prime position to continue his success.
Devonta Freeman
Devonta Freeman’s 2018 season was heavily disrupted by injury. However, in the three years preceding that he only missed three games. His season low for carries during that time was 196 and he averaged over 50 receptions. The Falcons’ rushing struggled in Freeman’s absence, and head coach Dan Quinn wants to field a more balanced offense. Freeman formed one of the league’s most potent backfields while splitting time with Tevin Coleman, but the latter’s departure is a clear display of confidence. Ito Smith showed enough last season that he shouldn’t be completely forgotten about, but Freeman will be the feature back. Assuming that there are no lingering issues following his knee injury, he should return to the form that saw him become a fantasy favorite in past seasons.
Julio Jones
It’s easy to forget that fantasy owners spent the first half of 2018 berating Julio Jones for his lack of touchdown production. After failing to find the end zone in his first seven games, he finished the season with 8 touchdowns in the final nine games. Strange streaks aside, Jones isn’t a player who tends to be near the top of the touchdown charts. He’s reached double figures only once (back in 2012). What Jones will do is pile up yards. He’s had over 1,400 receiving yards in each of his last five seasons. He’s also averaged over 100 yards per game in five of his last six seasons. Jones went over 100 yards 10 times last season and had fewer than 60 yards only twice. Few players offer both the floor and ceiling that he does.
Sleepers
As the long-term successor to Jones, Calvin Ridley looks to have a bright future in fantasy. That doesn’t mean that he’s going to lie dormant until that time, though. In his rookie season, Ridley overtook Mohamed Sanu as the Falcons’ WR2 and showcased his exceptional route running on the way to 64 receptions for 821 yards and 10 touchdowns. Austin Hooper didn’t have any dominant weeks but quietly set career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns on his way to finishing the season as the sixth highest scoring tight end in PPR leagues. His chemistry with Ryan appears to be improving each year, and if he’s able to get a few more red zone targets, he could quickly become a must-start player.
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton
Cam Newton is arguably the most athletic quarterback in the history of the game with a cannon for an arm, but his lack of accuracy as a thrower can be frustrating. Much of Newton’s outlook depends on what the Carolina Panthers coaching staff expects from him. He could put up huge points if the Panthers return to the strategy from his 2015 MVP season, mixing rushing with deep shots down the field. The 4 rushing touchdowns from last year were the lowest of Newton’s career, and while the addition of Christian McCaffrey added another dimension to the Panthers’ ground game, Newton is the best goal line runner in the NFL and should find the end zone more often. In the world of NFC South fantasy quarterbacks, Newton might have the highest ceiling.
Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey cemented his place among the top players in fantasy football in 2018. After a slightly underwhelming rookie campaign which featured the team trying to manufacture touches for the crown jewel of their draft class, McCaffrey had to prove that he could be a workhorse despite his diminutive stature. Longtime starting running back Jonathan Stewart was released and those hoping for a C.J. Anderson impact were left disappointed. McCaffrey established himself as the bell cow, dominating carries and smashing Matt Forte’s record for receptions by a RB in a season with 107. The Panthers drafted Jordan Scarlett in the fifth round, but McCaffrey was on the field for 91.3% of the offensive snaps last season and, providing he stays healthy, that number looks unlikely to fall much.
D.J. Moore
If it wasn’t clear already, Devin Funchess’ departure further confirmed that the Panthers are committing to D.J. Moore as their top wide receiver. The 2018 first-round pick showed glimpses of the game-breaking ability that he possesses, making plays with his speed after the catch and showcasing contested catch skills downfield. The Panthers showed a desire to get the ball in his hands, and if they continue to sprinkle in rushing attempts, then his value to the team will only increase further. Moore’s lack of size could make it difficult for him to produce in the red zone, but with Newton and McCaffrey in the backfield, he will have the opportunity to exploit single coverage.
Sleepers
It wasn’t long ago that Greg Olsen was one of the most valuable tight ends in fantasy. His consistent production is difficult to find at the position. Age and consecutive injury-plagued seasons have seen him drop out of that discussion, but Newton trusts him. It wasn’t long ago that Olsen had three 1,000-yard seasons in a row. The Panthers have moved towards a different style of offense, but those looking for stability at a discount could do a lot worse. Curtis Samuel forced his way into fantasy relevance last season and has the big play ability that makes you think there’s more to come. His opportunities look set to increase once again, and those looking for a wide receiver later in the draft could do worse than chasing his upside.
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees
A promising start to the season saw Drew Brees firmly in the MVP conversation. His play late might have hinted that the future Hall of Famer is finally slowing down at age 40 though. That said, Brees has never been a quarterback who dominated with arm strength. The New Orleans Saints used their first pick of the draft on center Erik McCoy. Look for Brees to enjoy another season of stepping up in the pocket and getting the ball out of his hands quickly to his playmakers. Providing he plays 16 games, it’s death, taxes and Drew Brees passing for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Until he proves otherwise, he’s as consistent as it gets when you’re looking for a quarterback.
Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara could be the most efficient RB around, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per reception over his two-year career so far. The Saints’ decision to move on from Mark Ingram, who split time with Kamara and scored 4 rushing touchdowns from inside 2 yards in 2018, should give him further opportunities. The team brought in Latavius Murray as Ingram’s replacement, but this is Kamara’s backfield. With 1500+ all-purpose yards and 13+ touchdowns in consecutive seasons, Kamara should be a top-five pick in every draft, but two 81 reception seasons in a row add further value to his stock in PPR leagues.
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas used 2018 to establish himself as one of the top receivers in the league. His 125 catches secured the record for the most receptions through the first three seasons of a player’s career (321). Thomas’ versatility allows him to move into the slot where his route running and physicality are often too much for the cornerback tasked with covering him.
Thomas’ connection with Brees is evident and he should dominate target share once again, making him one of the top available options in PPR leagues. The important thing for Thomas will be finding consistency. While he had games with 211, 180 and 129 receiving yards, Thomas also went under 50 yards on five occasions. Furthermore, he didn’t score a touchdown in any of them.
Jared Cook
The Saints never struggle for offense, but it seems like a long time ago when they last had a dominant tight end. In the time since Jimmy Graham’s departure, Jared Cook has been having a career renaissance of sorts, with last year’s 896 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, both career highs. Cook struggles as a blocker, but head coach Sean Payton will know how to maximize his talents as a mismatch receiver. He helped Graham average 1,099 receiving yards and 11.5 touchdowns in his four seasons as a starter. Cook has the potential to be a top-five fantasy tight end.
Sleepers
Latavius Murray has been brought in to try and replicate some of what Mark Ingram did for the Saints. His workload won’t reach previous years, but red zone specialists have value in high scoring offenses. Tre’Quan Smith took owners on a rollercoaster ride last season. He finished the year with two games over 100 yards and four games with zero yards making him a tantalizing prospect week-to-week who was impossible to trust. Thomas, Kamara, and Cook will occupy the attention of defenses, so Smith has an opportunity to prove that it should be him rather than the aging Ted Ginn Jr. who should be viewed as the Saints’ number two receiver.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston is coming off the back of a highly inconsistent season in what has been a highly inconsistent career. That said, he no longer has to compete with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who shined briefly during Winston’s suspension last year. The argument in favor of Winston taking a step forward is Tampa Bay Buccaneers new head coach Bruce Arians. In 2015, he was instrumental in a late-career Carson Palmer earning a top-five fantasy finish. Arians’ vertical offense might not appease those looking for Winston to adopt a safer style of play, but Blake Bortles has shown that touchdowns, passing yards, and rushing can give fantasy production to even the most turnover-prone quarterbacks. It might not be pretty, but don’t be surprised if Winston is a top 10 scoring quarterback.
Mike Evans
If Arians’ arrival is going to improve the fortunes of Winston, then Mike Evans will be a major benefactor. Evans appears to be slipping under the fantasy radar in an era of star-studded receivers, despite his 1,524 yards last season. At his best, he’s dominant, and his eight games in 2018 with over 100 receiving yards are evidence of that. At his worst, he’s the player who caught 1 of his 10 targets against the Panthers for 16 yards. His inefficiency can see him leave yards on the field, but Arians’ big-play offense is a great fit. Few players at 6’5 could average the 17.7 yards per reception that Evans did last season. He’s shown himself to be a consistent downfield threat and to be one of the best receivers in the NFC South.
O.J. Howard
O.J. Howard could be a perfect consolation prize for fantasy owners who miss out on drafting the top tier tight ends. His 56.5 receiving yards per game in 2018 were fourth at the position before an injury ended his campaign prematurely. Arians hasn’t had a tight end with 500 receiving yards since Dwayne Allen in 2012, but Howard is considerably more talented than Rob Housler and Jermaine Gresham. Cameron Brate figures to be in the mix, but if you’re looking for upside, then few at the position have a higher ceiling. Howard could be one of the top fantasy players in the NFC South to own.
Sleepers
DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries departing is a clear indication of the organization’s faith in Chris Godwin. Godwin took a major step forward in his second season and is in a good position to improve on his 59 catches and 842 yards. At running back, the team will be hoping for a lot more from Ronald Jones. He managed only 77 all-purpose yards in a hugely disappointing rookie season, but the team hasn’t tried to upgrade. Peyton Barber, the solid but unspectacular veteran, is his main competition. He’s unlikely to lose you a week but just as unlikely to win you one.
Andy Gallagher is a fantasy football writer for PFN. Follow him on twitter @AndySGallagher
