Well, that came out of nowhere! Jonnu Smith proved to be a fantasy football league winner in 2024, a season in which he entered as nothing more than a deep league flier.
As fun as last year was, it means nothing now. Smith is entering his age-30 season (124 games played across four different franchises) and now has plenty in the way of expectations. Is he still a good buy now that his offensive setting has changed?
Jonnu Smith’s Fantasy Outlook
Smith was the poster child for “wait on the onesie position” drafters in 2024. He cost you nothing and produced with, if not ahead of, the elites when your season was on the line.
He had a career year across the board (18 more catches in 2024 than he had ever seen targets in a year prior and his eight touchdowns doubled his total since leaving the Tennessee Titans after the 2020 season) and was at his very best when his very best was required in fantasy circles (seven scores in his final eight games with over a dozen points in the two games he failed to score thanks to high-end efficiency).
When all was said and done, the veteran ended the season with nine top-10 finishes at the position and more weeks inside the top-5 scoring tight ends than the elder tight end, who was supposed to deliver those sorts of numbers in Travis Kelce.
Smith was seventh best at the position in YAC and target share, both of which were boosted by 40.5% usage out of the slot, a rate that was well ahead of the other high-volume options.
He was great, and I can’t sell you on anything different. But none of that helps us now. Can he do it again?
Jonnu Smith has averaged 6.8 YAC/catch throughout his career, including 5.9 last season (80th percentile)
Just get the ball in his hands and let him run upfield. Smith thrives on screens and other manufactured targets
Should help the #Steelers a lot in moving the chains pic.twitter.com/pOaFyUSkZs
— Bradley Locker (@Bradley_Locker) July 7, 2025
The Smith scoring diet is interesting. And by “interesting,” I mean maddening. In two seasons (2020 with the Tennessee Titans and last year with the Miami Dolphins), his athletic tools have been leveraged significantly, and he was one of the most active pass-catching threats in scoring situations (16 TD catches on 176 targets).
In his other six NFL seasons, however, we are talking about a player who has turned 257 targets into 12 just 12 touchdowns, and at a position where so much value is gleaned from the ability to find paydirt, that introduces a wide range of outcomes.
On the bright side, you’d have to think that Aaron Rodgers played a significant role in Smith’s acquisition by the Steelers in late June. There had been rumblings about such a transaction even before No. 12 officially inked a deal with Pittsburgh, and the two sides finally agreed to terms before much offensive installation happened.
Over his last two seasons, the future HOF quarterback has posted a 21.6% touchdown rate when the ball gets inside the 25-yard line, a percentage that isn’t wildly different from his career number prior (23.8%).
Building on that, only nine quarterbacks with at least 20 games played since 2022 have both a higher completion percentage and more touchdowns per game to the TE position than Rodgers, not bad when you consider the players he had access to over that stretch.
I mentioned the sporadic nature of Smith’s touchdown production, and that’s true, but his usage has been reasonably consistent across all of his NFL stops.
Annual TE Ranks In Red Zone Targets Per Red Zone Routes
- 2020 (Titans): 1st of 41 qualifiers
- 2021 (Patriots): 1st of 39 qualifiers
- 2022 (Patriots): 2nd of 40 qualifiers
- 2023 (Falcons): 12th of 40 qualifiers
- 2024 (Dolphins): 7th of 39 qualifiers
I suppose the skeptic could say that there’s a slight dip in the most recent two seasons, but that feels like nitpicking, given the circumstances (QB, target competition, etc.). Even if you want to factor in some age regression, the boost in scoring equity provided by Rodgers is enough to offset it at least.
The concern, naturally, is the age parlay that you’re playing at an expensive cost in drafts. Smith is clearly on the back nine of what we’d expect a TE career to look like, and Rodgers has made it clear that this is a one-and-done situation before he rides off into the sunset.
It’s risky.
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Add in the fact that I had a “why Pat Freiermuth could matter this season” ready to go, and there’s certainly a path to failure. What if Patty Football absorbs even one-third of the red-zone usage? You’re then talking about a slow offense as is Rodgers’ M.O., a specimen of a receiver in DK Metcalf who deserves looks in the red zone, and a versatile running game that has gotten younger.
All of that is true. That said, I’m more willing to pay up for Smith as a Tier 3 tight end (Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are Tier 1 for me with George Kittle alone in Tier 2) todya than I was a month ago, as that Dolphins situation came with far too many moving pieces for the math side of my brain to overcome.
In Pittsburgh, Smith profiles as the second-highest priority target in an offense that we expect to be efficient, which I can support at his current cost.
Dan Fornek’s Jonnu Smith Fantasy Projection
Even the most optimistic person wouldn’t have been able to predict the impact of Jonnu Smith landing with the Miami Dolphins before the 2024 season. Smith became a staple of Miami’s passing attack, mainly due to the team’s reliance on the quick passing game, which poor quarterback and offensive line play necessitated.
Smith finished second on the Dolphins in targets (111) and receiving yards (884). He led the team in receptions (88) and receiving touchdowns (8). All those production stats were career-highs for the eighth-year pro, leading to a TE5 finish in fantasy football (13.1 PPG). The veteran lobbied for a new contract this offseason, given his 2024 role, but was instead traded to the Steelers to reunite with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
On one hand, it is good that Smith landed with a playcaller who has shown an ability to utilize his diverse skill set and make him a part of the offense. On the other hand, the last time we saw this pairing, Smith had a solid receiving line (50 receptions for 582 yards and three touchdowns) that was ultimately inconsequential in fantasy football (7.3 PPG, TE20).
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Smith will be competing with another solid veteran for targets in Pittsburgh (Pat Freiermuth), giving him an uphill battle to fantasy relevance in 2025. The Steelers don’t have many established pass catchers outside of DK Metcalf, so Smith likely has a role on the offense in 2025. However, it is hard to see that role being fantasy relevant on a run-first team with a solid all-around tight end ahead of him on the depth chart.
