After five years of wide receiver 2/3 numbers, the Washington Commanders’ Terry McLaurin got the best quarterback of his career and had his best season. What can fantasy football managers expect for a follow-up in 2025? Is McLaurin still a rock-solid WR2 with upside?
Terry McLaurin Fantasy Outlook
McLaurin is a fascinating case study. After posting over 900 receiving yards as a third-round rookie with a horrible QB situation, he found himself in a class of receivers that is very successful long term.
We should certainly classify McLaurin as a productive NFL pass catcher. He’s in the upper echelon of third-round WRs in NFL history. But I would stop short of saying he ever achieved greatness.
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For the better part of the first five years of his career, McLaurin was largely stagnant. Outside of an anomalous 14.9 fantasy points per game in the offensive bonanza of the 2020 Covid season, McLaurin averaged between 12.3 and 13.7 PPG every season. He was the epitome of “fine.” He was not a difference maker and wouldn’t swing matchups, but he would never be the reason you lose.
Last season, the Commanders finally got McLaurin a real quarterback, and he posted a career-best 15.8 PPG. Those were borderline WR1 numbers, making “Scary Terry” one of the best values of 2024. But did McLaurin really have a breakout season?
McLaurin’s 2024 Season Was a Bit of a Mirage
Based on his fantasy output, McLaurin had a breakout last year. Based on the numbers, he was the same guy he’s always been.
McLaurin’s target share was 23.3%, 34th in the league. That was right in line with what he’s done throughout his career. He was targeted on a mere 22.7% of his routes run, 44th in the league, also in line with career averages.
He had 82 catches for 1,096 yards. Since 2020, here are his yearly catch counts: 87, 77, 77, 79, 82. He was also between 1,002 and 1,191 yards each of those seasons.
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So, what precipitated the spike in fantasy points? It was quite literally one thing: touchdowns. McLaurin scored exactly four or five touchdowns each of the previous four seasons. In 2024, he scored 13 times. If you give him his usual five scores, he would’ve been at 13 PPG, just like always.
McLaurin’s ADP is WR16. He’s a talented player, for sure, but I have a hard time paying that price based on one season with an outlier touchdown rate. I have McLaurin ranked as my WR20, which is slightly below consensus. If he falls below ADP, I’ll take him. But I can’t invest heavily in a player I believe is being drafted close to his ceiling.
Dan Fornek’s Terry McLaurin Projection
McLaurin is a difficult player to rank heading into 2025. On one hand, McLaurin thrived in his first season with Jayden Daniels under center, catching 82 of 117 targets for 1,096 yards and a career-high 13 touchdowns. It was the veteran receiver’s fifth straight season with at least 77 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. His increased touchdown production resulted in a career-high 15.8 PPR points per game, which allowed him to finish as the WR14 (minimum eight games).
The strong season has led McLaurin to request a contract extension to pay him with the other best receivers in the NFL. It is a request that the Commanders haven’t honored, leading McLaurin to not report to training camp and request a trade. The Commanders remain steadfast in not trading the veteran receiver. Every day that McLaurin doesn’t report to camp complicates his 2025 outlook due to conditioning and injury risk.
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Additionally, the Commanders added Samuel to the offense via trade this offseason. Samuel will siphon touches from McLaurin in the passing game and through designed runs, which may lower his ceiling as a player.
If McLaurin reports to camp and commits to playing in Washington next season, he should be treated as a low-end WR2 with high-end WR2 upside.
