After two underwhelming years by his standards, Lamar Jackson returned to the ranks of the elite last year, finishing as the top quarterback in fantasy football. Should fantasy managers be willing to spend a premium pick to draft the Baltimore Ravens quarterback?
Lamar Jackson Fantasy Outlook
What needs to be said about Jackson? He’s the greatest rushing quarterback of all time and has also evolved into an elite passer, too.
Lamar held the pose 🥶🎯 pic.twitter.com/1hLvqCW5JW
— NFL (@NFL) January 12, 2025
Jackson is coming off a season in which he threw 41 passing touchdowns, easily a career-high. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Jackson doesn’t rush for many touchdowns. Head coach John Harbaugh does not use Jackson around the goal line because he wants to avoid exposing him to unnecessary hits. Plus, it helps to have one of the greatest short-yardage backs in football history in Derrick Henry.
Since taking over as the Ravens’ starting quarterback in 2019, Jackson has never averaged fewer than 20 fantasy points per game. His floor is that of a mid-QB1. Twice, he has finished as the overall QB1, with the second instance coming last season when he posted 25.6 points per game.
At 28 years old, Jackson is still far from the age at which mobile QBs start declining. The Ravens are returning their key offensive weapons in Henry, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely. There’s no reason to expect this offense to look any different than it did last year.
Jackson comes with slightly more injury risk than Josh Allen, which is what keeps him out of the top spot. However, fantasy managers should not shy away from Jackson at his QB2 ADP.
Allen and Jackson are almost always selected next to each other in fantasy drafts. What I wrote about the theory behind drafting Allen also applies to Jackson.
There are some outstanding running backs and wide receivers available at this spot. A few years ago, I would scoff at the notion that you should take a QB this early. Now, it comes down to how high you are on the running backs and wide receivers.
If there are RBs and WRs you really like that you believe to have top-five upside, it’s hard to push the button on Jackson. At the same time, I have completely come around on the value of an elite quarterback.
Ultimately, fantasy football is a weekly game, and big-time performances are what swing matchups. Jackson is going to win you multiple matchups throughout the season on his own.
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There are still several late-round QBs I believe have a chance to return Jayden Daniels-like value this season. As great as Jackson was last year, drafting a running back or wide receiver at this ADP and then selecting Daniels later proved to be the optimal strategy.
If you miss out on Jackson or opt to go with a wide receiver or running back, that’s perfectly fine. I want you to know that if you decide to take Jackson in a spot that seems early for a QB, you should do it and feel good about it.
Dan Fornek’s Lamar Jackson Fantasy Projection
Lamar Jackson’s second year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s scheme was a resounding success. Jackson set career-highs in passing yards (4,172) and passing touchdowns (41) while having the lowest interception rate of his career (0.8%). Jackson also posted a career-best 8.8 yards per attempt and took the second-fewest sacks (23) despite attempting a career-high 474 passes. He had a personal best of 12 games with two or more passing touchdowns.
His development as a passer, alongside his continued excellence as a rusher (139 carries for 915 yards and four touchdowns), allowed Jackson to finish as the QB1 in fantasy for the second time in his career, averaging 25.3 fantasy points per game. Jackson had 13 games with at least 40 rushing yards in 2024.
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Jackson may not see the same efficiency as he did passing in 2025, but there is no reason to believe this offense will slow down. Jackson has two top-four finishes in fantasy with Monken calling plays, and has his five leading target earners returning next season.
Additionally, the Ravens added veteran receiver DeAndre Hopkins to add a bigger-bodied presence to complement Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman. Jackson could easily repeat as the QB1 in 2025, and a top-three finish is all but assured if he stays healthy all season.
