Across his two NFL seasons, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, on a per-game basis, ranks sixth in reception first downs, fifth in targets, and fourth in receiving yards. It’s been evident since his 15-target debut (10 catches for 119 yards) that he is destined to be an elite player in this game for a long time and a fantasy difference maker.
He benefited this offseason from Matthew Stafford’s decision to return for a 17th season, but his running mate changed from Cooper Kupp to Davante Adams, a move that has some believing his involvement will fail to reach the elite levels that we’ve seen up to this point.
Nacua is going to be a first-round pick in most drafts. Should you feel comfortable pulling the trigger and building your team around the Rams’ WR1?
Should You Draft Puka Nacua in Fantasy?
For me, the answer is yes. You could argue that he is a Tier 1 receiver depending on how you sort through the top of the board, but regardless, it’s hard to imagine a negative return on an investment in Nacua.
He’s entering his age-24 season, owns a career catch rate just north of 69%, and was a top-15 producer at a position that can be volatile week-to-week, in six of 10 games to end last season (four top-10s over that stretch).
I was skeptical that his initial splash into the fantasy world was a little circumstantial. He walked into a featured role under professional receiver-elevator Matthew Stafford with Cooper Kupp sidelined.
I was wrong.
Very wrong.
Among the 82 WRs with 100+ targets over the past two seasons, his per-game ranks …
- Sixth in targets
- Fifth in receptions
- Fourth in receiving yards
- Second in yards per route (behind only Nico Collins)
When Stafford wants to feed his WR1, he does so, and NFL defenses have yet to prove that they have a way to take away the versatile stylings of Nacua. He had three games last year with multiple rushing attempts. Sean McVay knows that he has a queen on his chessboard, and he’s not afraid to get creative, something fantasy managers love to see.
Puka Nacua pic.twitter.com/WrHPDkrki3
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 8, 2025
There’s a natural development to take place here, and it’s in the scoring department. Despite the sharp route running and willingness to be physical, Nacua has just nine touchdown catches on 266 career regular-season targets.
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Is this a flaw in his profile or the result of running poorly on variance?
The answer might be “both,” but asking him to run more pure in 2025 is reasonable, given that Kupp now calls Seattle home.
From Matthew Stafford Since 2023
- Kupp: 15.3% of his targets came in the red zone
- Nacua: 10.7% of his targets came in the red zone
Maybe it was a Nacua weakness. Maybe it was a Kupp strength. Maybe it was a Stafford preference. In any event, while the Rams brought in another touchdown savant in Adams this season, Nacua now has the inside track in terms of a connection with his quarterback, which wasn’t the case prior due to the #BreakfastClub.
Nacua has been an elite fantasy producer without touchdowns, which means the sky is the limit if his usage grows in that respect. He earned a 32.9% target share during the Rams’ two-game playoff run last season. When the chips are in the middle of the table, Stafford knows where he is going and is fully aware that you have no way of stopping it.
Dan Fornek’s Puka Nacua Fantasy Projection
Puka Nacua proved that his stellar rookie season wasn’t a fluke. A knee injury limited him to just 11 games played, but Nacua still had 106 targets, 79 receptions, 990 receiving yards, and three touchdowns in a limited sample size. Thanks to his high-volume role in the passing attack, he finished as the WR2 in PPR points per game (18.8).
Through two seasons, Nacua has averaged 9.5 targets, 6.6 receptions, and 88.4 receiving yards per game as the focal point of the Rams’ passing attack. He had at least eight targets in nine of 11 games last season and four games with 13 targets. Nacua was first among all wide receivers last season in targets per route run (43.6%) and yards per route run (4.07).
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As good as Nacua has been, there are some reasons to pause before taking him in the middle to late first round in 2025. For one, the Rams added Davante Adams in free agency to replace Cooper Kupp. Adams has not been burdened with the same injury issues as Kupp and has averaged 162.8 targets per season over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Rams have spent the summer managing Matthew Stafford’s back, which could be problematic if it lingers throughout the season.
Regardless, Nacua has shown the ability to be a high-volume target earner in his first two seasons, and there is no reason to expect that to change in 2025. However, several variables (added competition and quarterback health) cap his ability to jump from back-end WR1 to a top-five fantasy receiver.
