Every year, the NFL Draft injects a ton of new talent into the league. Naturally, this shakes up fantasy football values. With the Pittsburgh Steelers spending a third-round pick on Kaleb Johnson, what does this mean for the fantasy value of Jaylen Warren?
Fantasy Impact of Steelers Drafting Kaleb Johnson
Sometimes, picks just make sense. The Steelers let Najee Harris walk in free agency while retaining Warren. As talented as Warren is, they needed another back. Johnson is the perfect complement to Warren.
While Warren is more of a slasher and a better receiving back, Johnson is a straight-line runner in a similar vein to Harris. He’s a younger, possibly more dynamic replacement.
Johnson is not much of a receiver. While he did see a 10.4% target share in his final year at Iowa, he only caught 22 passes in 12 games because the Hawkeyes simply do not throw the ball much.
On the ground, Johnson doesn’t necessarily have breakaway speed, running a 4.57-second 40-yard dash time. However, that’s far from a death sentence, as he’s 224 pounds, which gives him a 74th percentile speed score.
Johnson is the type of guy who looks better on film. Just look.
Two minutes of Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson #Steelers #NFL pic.twitter.com/XCw0Juo5Ur
— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot)
The Steelers were fifth with a 49% neutral game script run rate last season. They want to run the ball. Now, they once again have the personnel to do it. So, how will this split play out for fantasy?
Jaylen Warren
Before the draft, I highlighted Warren as a veteran at risk in the NFL Draft. However, this isn’t a burial for Warren. He spent his entire rookie contract playing alongside Harris.
Given Mike Tomlin’s deference to veterans, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Warren starts this year and gets the entire first series. If Warren can handle 8-10 carries per game while monopolizing passing game work, his absolute floor should be what he did last year.
Admittedly, 8.3 fantasy points per game is not getting it done. But from Weeks 14-17, Warren played over 50% of the snaps in every game, as well as in the Steelers’ lone playoff game.
The big question for Warren’s fantasy value will be if he gets goal-line carries. At 207 pounds, he’s perfectly capable. Will Tomlin give his veteran the first crack? We have a couple of months to try and figure that out, as it would go a long way toward Warren pushing RB2 value.
As things currently stand, Johnson’s landing spot should be considered good. These two should be valued pretty closely for the 2024 season. But, of course, what transpires throughout training camp and the preseason could change things.
