You can pick any year in history and look at the top fantasy football players. They will consist of players selected early in the NFL Draft. Of course, as we all know, not every early-round draft pick works out. There are busts every year. These are the first and second-round rookies most likely to bust in fantasy football.
Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers
I want to open this by saying I don’t see a ton of obvious busts in the first two rounds. First-round running backs are always good bets, and we only saw four receivers go in Round 1. Matthew Golden has been on my list for a while, though. The landing spot wasn’t going to change my mind.
I intend to do a deeper dive on Golden in the future. Keep an eye out for that. But for right now, let’s just cover the basics.
Golden was not even in the first-round conversation until the combine. Why? Because his production did not warrant it.
This is all Matthew Golden has. He's not even a one-year wonder; he's a four-game wonder. And those games all came with Isaiah Bond was hurt.
When Isaiah Bond was healthy, he was the true WR1 of the team https://t.co/3XAxMrCAIB pic.twitter.com/1ODyVyfwos
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB)
Golden did well to capitalize on Isaiah Bond’s absence. But in the NFL, he’s going to always be competing with ride receivers a lot better than Bond. Yet, he couldn’t thrive until Bond was out of the picture.
At best, Golden was a mid-round-two guy prior to the combine. Then, he ran a blazing 4.29 40-time. Simply put, who cares? Actually, that’s unfair. I do care. Golden running a sub-4.3 40-time does matter.
Golden improved his draft stock by showing off incredible speed. In reality, it should be viewed as a negative.
Here are all the wide receivers to run 4.31 or faster since 2000. This is not the company you want to keep.
The Packers have a clear opening at WR1. They’ve been implementing a rotation of WR2/3/4s ever since Davante Adams left. Golden could emerge into that guy. He could also just be another cog in the machine. I will not be targeting him anywhere.
Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts
Tyler Warren is a good player. This isn’t a talent issue. It’s a usage issue. As a reminder, this is specifically related to fantasy football. Warren can be an incredible NFL player, while still being considered a bust in fantasy.
The Colts have a void at tight end, which gives Warren a clear path to playing time. Unfortunately, it’s hard to envision whoever plays quarterback being able to support three fantasy-relevant pass-catchers.
Warren is not going to earn targets at the expense of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Can we really get that excited for Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones’ third option?
If you don’t believe me, listen to Warren himself.
New #Colts TE Tyler Warren on having an inevitably decreased workload at the next level (Q: @JakeArthurNFL):
“I don’t see it as being an issue. I could have 10 catches in a game or block for 70 snaps. That’s the thing about playing TE. I’m just gonna do my job.”
🎥: @Colts pic.twitter.com/eMcRkcX7ib
— Noah Compton (@nerlens_)
Long term, Warren should be fine. But for 2025, I can’t say I’m excited about his prospects to be a startable fantasy tight end.
Tre Harris, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
If there’s one guy on this list I might be wrong about, it’s Tre Harris. He was incredibly productive for each of the past three seasons, which is necessary since he played five years at college.
I am predisposed to blanket fading all five-year wide receivers. The fact that Harris was so much older than his opponents taints the quality of his production. He also only earned an 18.2% target share in his super senior year. That’s concerning as well.
On the positive side of things, Harris landed fantastically. The Chargers have a clear WR1 in Ladd McConkey, but these couldn’t be more different players. Since their skill sets don’t overlap, that means they won’t cannibalize each other for targets.
McConkey is primarily a slot receiver, while Harris lines up mostly on the outside. Justin Herbert is a top-10 quarterback, and the Chargers are a winning organization under Jim Harbaugh. There’s certainly a world where Harris is second on the team in targets this season.
Ultimately, this comes down to prospect profile, and I can’t endorse a five-year college player who can’t possibly be his team’s WR1.
