The NFC North is easily the best division in football. Three of its four teams already hit double-digit wins. Two of them have clinched a playoff spot. In Week 16, what do things look like for the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers in terms of playoff seeding?
What Is the Current NFC North Playoff Picture?
The Lions (13-2) and Vikings (13-2) are currently fighting for the top spot in the North. Since the Lions already defeated the Vikings and have a better division and conference record, there is no sequence of events that can result in the Vikings winning a tiebreaker over the Lions. They have to finish with a better record.
The Packers (11-4) are in third and entering Week 16, and have been eliminated from the NFC North. With two teams now ahead of them, their path to the postseason can only come via the Wild Card.
Let’s go through the remaining matchups for these three teams and figure out how things might settle based on the different potential outcomes.
How Can the Lions and Vikings Win the NFC North?
The Lions still have the inside track to the division. They will win any tiebreaker over the Vikings, even if the Lions enter Week 18 one game up and lose to Minnesota.
If the Lions end up one game behind the Vikings heading into Week 18, a win would give them the division due to a head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Lions end up a game ahead of the Vikings going into Week 18, it means they would still have to be at 14 wins, which means they would automatically win the tiebreaker.
This one gets a bit complicated, so let’s go through it. Both the Lions and Vikings have exclusively conference games remaining. If the Lions fall Vikings, that would put their divisional record at 5-3 and conference record at 10-4.
The only way for the Vikings to win the NFC North is to win more games than the Lions over these final two weeks. Ultimately, their Week 18 game might decide it all.
The Lions’ path is very simple. They just need to match the Vikings. As long as the Lions win the same number of games or more games than the Vikings, the Lions will win the NFC North.
Can the Packers Win the NFC North?
With the Detroit Lions getting the win over the Chicago Bears, the Green Bay Packers have been eliminated from NFC North contention.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
NFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Detroit Lions (14-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
6. Washington Commanders (11-5)
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
In The Hunt
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-11)
14. Chicago Bears (4-12)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
16. New York Giants (3-13)
