After the excitement of cold and snowy conditions around the NFL last week, Week 14 looks set to be a somewhat calmer week in terms of the weather forecast. This week brings relatively little risk of precipitation in most games, with temperatures ranging from 50-80 degrees Fahrenheit. However, there is a chance that we will see windy conditions at some stadiums, but will it be enough to cause an issue?
Let’s examine the Week 14 NFL weather report to determine whether fantasy football managers should be concerned about any of their players this week.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 14 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 5 a.m. ET on Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: 10% chance at kickoff increasing throughout the game
- Wind: 10 mph southerly with gusts up to 20mph
There are potentially four wind-affected games in Week 14’s early window. The potentially worst of those comes in Nashville, where the Tennessee Titans will host the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Based on the current forecast, this game could also see some rain at some point. There is a low-level chance in the first half, with the likelihood increasing throughout the second half.
Based on data from the last 10 years, the wind’s potential impact is around a 5% decrease in fantasy output. Most of that impact comes in the kicking game, with kicks of over 40 yards seeing a slight drop-off once we hit 10+ miles per hour and kicks over 50 yards seeing a drop of around a 20% success rate. Those numbers also drop further if the winds get up to their potential gusting speeds of 20 mph.
Rain adds to the risk in this game, with a further 5% drop-off in fantasy output when rain falls at kickoff. The biggest impact is felt in the passing game, with the rushing game seeing a slight uptick. There isn’t a big enough chance of rain right now in the forecast to take drastic measures, but the Jaguars’ passing game is already highly questionable this week, so you may want to consider looking elsewhere if you can.
New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 13-15 mph westerly
Of the four games with a potential win impact, MetLife Stadium has the highest forecasted sustained speeds at up to 15 mph. However, that game shouldn’t have the same issues with gusts as the other four. Additionally, unlike in Tennessee, there is little risk of rain in this game.
Based on data from the last 10 years, the wind’s potential impact in these temperatures is around a 5% decrease in fantasy output. Most of that impact comes in the kicking game, with kicks of over 40 yards seeing a slight drop-off once we hit 10+ mph and kicks over 50 yards seeing a drop of around a 20% success rate.
There are very few trustworthy fantasy assets in this game, so the weather shouldn’t have a major impact on decision-making. However, if you do have to rely on the New York Giants or New Orleans Saints’ passing games this week, the weather shouldn’t hurt you too much.
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-12 mph westerly with gusts up to 23 mph
The highest potential gusting speeds of the week may sweep across Lincoln Financial Field as the Carolina Panthers face the Philadelphia Eagles. The sustained wind speeds are once again forecasted to be slightly over 10 mph, but not quite at the level we could see in MetLife.
Based on data from the last 10 years, the potential impact of the wind in these temperatures is around a 5% decrease in fantasy output. Most of that impact comes in the kicking game, with 40+ yard kicks seeing a slight drop-off once we hit 10 mph or above and kicks over 50 yards seeing a drop of around a 20% success rate. Those kicking numbers also drop further if the winds get up to their potential gusting speeds of 23 mph.
There is some threat to the kicking game in this one, which is frustrating. Jake Elliott and Eddy Pineiro are both generally reliable and accurate kickers, but this weather pushes their value down a little. The sustained wind speed should ensure that neither passing game is too heavily impacted.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-14 mph westerly with gusts up to 22 mph
Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh will see a combination of the worst wind conditions of the week in terms of being one of the games with the higher sustained speeds and higher potential gusting speeds. However, neither is to a level where there should be a major concern for fantasy managers.
Based on data from the last 10 years, the wind’s potential impact in these temperatures is around a 5% decrease in fantasy output. Most of that comes in the kicking game, with kicks over 40 yards seeing a slight drop-off once we hit 10+ mph and 50+ yard kicks dropping about 20% in success rate. Those kicking numbers also drop further if the winds get up to their potential gusting speeds of 23 mph.
There is some slight threat to the kicking game in this matchup, which is frustrating for anyone who has relied on Chris Boswell’s exploits this season. Still, he’s a solid option for managers to consider.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8-10 mph easterly
Unsurprisingly, the best weather conditions for Week 14 will be in Florida, with temperatures above 70 and next-to-no chance of rain falling. The game in Miami will see a little bit of wind, but it isn’t anywhere enough to be in the region where games should potentially see an impact.
From a fantasy perspective, the game between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins will have the second-best weather conditions of the week among the outdoor games.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3-4 mph easterly
If the weather conditions in the Miami game are good, the game in Tampa Bay could be considered great. Not only are temperatures above 70 and no rain is forecasted, but there’s also very little wind. This is the best outdoor game of the week for weather, and there could be plenty of fantasy points scored with two below-average defenses.
Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6 mph northwesterly
It looks like a fairly serene day in Levi’s Stadium this week. Temperatures are above 60, there is a next-to-no chance of rain, and the wind is set to be comfortably below the range we historically observe any impact.
Sometimes, games in Santa Clara can see the wind pick up in the second half, causing a little bit of havoc on the kicking and deep-passing games, but that is not forecasted today.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Weather
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8-10 mph southerly
After a Sunday Night Football Winter Wonderland in Week 13, things are much more “normal” in Week 14. There’s always a risk of cold and snowy conditions in Kansas City once we get into the final weeks of the season, but that’s not the case this week.
It will still feel reasonably chilly, especially for a dome team from a warm-weather climate, but the Los Angeles Chargers couldn’t have asked for much better in terms of weather.
That’s the same for fantasy managers, who often fear the cold weather in Kansas City and the potential impact it can have on offensive productions. The risks to fantasy managers come from the play of both offenses and not the weather in this matchup.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys | Sunday, 8:15 p.m.
