Thanksgiving Weekend has brought cold weather, and things could get very interesting for fantasy football purposes this weekend. Numerous cold weather games are forecasted, and there is also a high likelihood of snow on Sunday Night Football, giving fantasy managers much to think about.
Let’s examine the current weather forecast for all nine outdoor NFL games on Sunday and Monday in order to determine which fantasy options could be risky starts this week. Which players should you look to avoid, and who could get a boost in value due to the impact of the cold weather forecasted to impact the games around the NFL this week?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 13 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 5 a.m. ET on Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8-10 mph westerly
It looks like a cold day in Paycor Stadium as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers. The current temperature forecast is right around freezing with wind chill taking it below that point.
If we look back at the last decade of NFL games, 215 have played with the kickoff temperature between 30 and 40 degrees Fahrenheit. In those games, the average fantasy point output is around 5-10% below from when temperatures are in the range of 50 degrees and above.
When we add in wind speeds above five miles per hour, the average fantasy-point score drops to around 82 per team, which is a 15-20% reduction from games played in warmer temperatures. That impact tends to be felt in the passing game, with quarterbacks and wide receivers experiencing anywhere between a 10-25% reduction in fantasy-point output. Running backs see a slight increase but nothing of major note.
What this means is that you should be somewhat hesitant when it comes to starting fringier passing-game options in these conditions. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins would not get a significant downgrade, but there should be hesitation around the Steelers’ passing game and the lower-end Bengals’ options.
Complicating all of that is that Cincinnati’s defense is the better matchup to go against, while the Steelers’ defense is a tough matchup. It would be a brave call to bench Chase, Higgins, or Burrow, but this could be a nervy game for fantasy managers of those three.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8-10 mph westerly
It looks like a cold day in Foxborough as the New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts. The current temperature forecast is right around freezing with wind chill taking it below that point.
The fantasy impact here is that it will be hard to trust anyone in the passing game implicitly. Most of the Patriots’ options were already fringe starters at best, so avoiding them won’t be all that tough.
As for the Colts, there is some concern over a quarterback in Anthony Richardson, who’s played most of his career in warm weather and now plays his home games in a dome. He still offers fantasy value due to his ability to lean on his running to make plays. However, it’s tough to trust any of Richardson’s receiving options in these conditions.
This could be a game that sees a heavy dose of him and Jonathan Taylor running the ball.
Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Jets Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-12 mph westerly with gusts up to 25 mph
It will also be a cold day in MetLife Stadium as the New York Jets host the Seattle Seahawks. The current temperature forecast is right around freezing with wind chill taking it below that point.
If we look back at the last decade of NFL games, we have seen 215 played with the kickoff temperature between 30 and 40 Fahrenheit. In those games, the average fantasy point output is around 5-10% below what we see when temperatures are in the 50 Fahrenheit and above range.
When we add in wind speeds above five mph, the average fantasy point score drops to around 82 per team, which is a 15-20% reduction from games played in warmer temperatures. That impact tends to be felt in the passing game, with quarterbacks and wide receivers experiencing anywhere between a 10-25% reduction in fantasy point output. Running backs see a slight increase but nothing of major note.
The Jets’ passing options are tough for fantasy managers to judge. Their passing game has not been as effective as we hoped with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson. Combine that disfunction with the weather conditions and it is hard to blame anyone for considering benching either of them or Aaron Rodgers in fantasy matchups this week.
In terms of the Seahawks, DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are usually reliable starters, but they have a relatively tough pair of matchups in Sauce Garnder and D.J. Reed. That, combined with the weather,r could make both of them risky propositions, and this could be a game where Tyler Lockett slides under the radar of the secondary and has a big game.
Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 40s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8-10 mph westerly
It will be a relatively chilly day at FedEx Field as the Washington Commanders host the Tennessee Titans. If we add in wind chill, then it will feel like the mid-30s and, therefore, close to freezing on the field.
In the last decade, 305 NFL games have been played with kickoff temperatures between 40 and 50 degrees. In those games, the average fantasy-point output is around 5-10% below what we see when temperatures are in the 50 and above range.
The sustained wind speeds of up to 10 mph usually result in around a 10-15% reduction in fantasy output when compared to games played in warmer climates. There’s also a slight increase in rushing output and a slight decrease in passing-game fantasy output in these conditions.
This means that there could be some hesitation over starting players in either passing game. Both Jayden Daniels and Will Levis are capable of using their legs, so they should not be downgraded much. Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin, and Zach Ertz all see a slight downgrade, but McLaurin likely remains a starting option in most formats.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers Weather
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8-10 mph westerly
There is very little to worry about when it comes to this game in Carolina. Weather conditions in the 50 degrees Fahrenheit mark are relatively friendly for fantasy purposes, and the wind should have a relatively minimal impact in this game.
There should be no concern over the main fantasy options in this game because of weather.
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8-10 mph northerly
From a weather perspective, there’s very little to worry about when it comes to this game in Jacksonville. Weather conditions in the 60s are friendly for fantasy purposes, and the wind should have a relatively minimal impact in this game.
There should be no concern over the main fantasy options in this game based on weather.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 40s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7-8 mph westerly
It will be a relatively chilly day in M&T Bank Stadium as the Baltimore Ravens host the Philadelphia Eagles. If we add in wind chill, then it will feel like the mid-30s and, therefore, close to freezing on the field.
When it comes to the likes of Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, they shouldn’t get any major downgrade this week. However, this could become a contest between the running games, with Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson making up an all-star rushing cast.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills Weather
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 20s
- Snow: >60% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-14 mph westerly
It looks like fun in Highmark Stadium as the Buffalo Bills host the San Francisco 49ers. The positive news from a fantasy perspective is that the snow should ease up somewhat throughout Sunday, dropping down to around 0.6 inches between 1 p.m. ET and 7 p.m. ET. However, the current forecast has the intensity increasing from 7-10 p.m. ET., with around an inch of fresh snow forecasted in that time.
That forecast consistently changes the volume of snow, so we’ll need to monitor it. However, there’s a very real chance we see significant snowfall during Sunday Night Football.
The easing of snowfall during the day should help ensure the field is clear at kickoff, but both passing games will have to battle snow and wind during the game.
For every touchdown the Bills score tomorrow, we build a snowman! ☃️ pic.twitter.com/Llwotlq1eT
— BuffaloWeather (@weather_buffalo)
Over the last decade, we’ve seen 16 snow games. In those games, an average of 79.6 fantasy points were scored in total per team. That is a drop of around 25% over games played in clear weather at warmer temperatures but only a drop of around 5% compared to clear weather games played in games with temperatures below 30 degrees Fahrenheit.
However, we do see a significant shift in where the fantasy points are scored in games with snow at kickoff. Passing output is reduced by around 10-15%, with rushing output increased by more than 30%. Therefore, the likes of James Cook and Christian McCaffrey become even more valuable in these conditions.
Additionally, we may see a boost in value for Deebo Samuel Sr., Jordan Mason, and Ray Davis, who could all see extra touches out of the backfield if this game becomes dominated by run plays.
Josh Allen retains most of his fantasy value, as the Bills will almost certainly look to utilize his rushing ability. Curtis Samuel, who is comfortable handling the ball out of the backfield, could also be a sleeper.
The likes of Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman (if active), and Khalil Shakir are all risky options to start this week if the snow suppresses passing output.
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Weather
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. Monday
- Expected Temperature: Low 40s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 1-4 mph southwesterly
It will be a relatively chilly night in Denver as the Denver Broncos host the Cleveland Browns. If we add in wind chill, then it will feel like the mid-30s and, therefore, close to freezing on the field.
The good news is that the wind is likely to be negligible in this game, so there should be no further downgrades. A 5-10% downgrade in fantasy output is nothing for managers to be concerned about when thinking about Monday Night Football.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
