The New England Patriots square off with the Tennessee Titans in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head over to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3, 39)
This is another game this year where I cannot, in good conscience, give you a pick. This is a game between two of the bottom seven teams in our PR+, and both have major issues.
We have no idea who will be at quarterback for either team with Will Levis and Drake Maye both set to be on the injury report. This could be a game between Mason Rudolph and Jacoby Brissett, which is a somewhat wild thing to say.
The offenses rank 30th (Patriots) and 31st (Titans) in our Offense+. Tennessee has the edge on defense, ranking 15th (vs. 28th), while New England has the edge on special teams, leading the league (vs. 31st).
The Titans’ defense is a fading force this season, and it’s easy to believe they could end up being a bottom-three team in our PR+ by the end of the season. Neither offense being good makes you think under, but neither defense is particularly good either. For your own health, just stay away from this one.
Prediction: Patriots 18, Titans 17
Pick: Pass
Patriots at Titans Game Insights
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots beat the Jets on Sunday with 247 yards of offense. Surprisingly, that was the eighth time in eight weeks a team has won with under 250 yards of offense (the Broncos also did it to the Jets in Week 4).
QB: Jacoby Brissett has yet to clear 5.5 yards per attempt in a game this season and has two touchdown passes on 159 attempts (Will Levis thinks that’s a low rate; he has five on 125 attempts this season).
Offense: The Patriots have converted six of seven red zone trips into touchdowns over the past three weeks (Weeks 1-5: 4-of-13).
Defense: New England’s defensive game plan adjusts as much week over week as any. They blitzed 17.2% of the time on Sunday – they’ve been at 25%, the lowest in four games, but also at 40% or the highest in three games, including Weeks 6-7).
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson scored a pair of touchdowns on Sunday, but his 27 carries over the past two weeks have gained just 66 yards, and if Drake Maye misses time, even more running lanes are likely to close.
Betting: The Patriots are 1-3 ATS on the road this season – they’ve had plenty of issues since Tom Brady left town, but they’ve yet to have a losing ATS road record since his departure.
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans have been blown out in back-to-back weeks by Super Bowl contenders, but they own a +9 point differential this season in three games that are sub-.500 this season.
QB: Mason Rudolph averaged 15.6 yards per pass in the first quarter on Sunday and 3.9 the rest of the way.
Offense: The Titans converted 46.2% of their third downs in 2020. That number dipped to 43.6% in 2021, 36.5% in 2022, and 33.5% in 2023. Through eight weeks this season? The trend continues: 30.6%.
Defense: The Titans have failed to force a turnover in five of seven games this season.
Fantasy: Calvin Ridley had 118 first-quarter receiving yards, the 10th most in a first quarter since the start of 2015. He entered the game with 56 receiving yards in his four games prior.
Betting: The Titans have failed to cover all three home games this season and are just 1-5-1 ATS over their past seven in front of their fans.
