The Detroit Lions will travel to take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
Detroit Lions (-4, 48.5) at Green Bay Packers
After an unconvincing start to the season, the Detroit Lions are marching on with an incredible level of performance. Sure, the schedule ranks among the 10 easiest in the NFL, but they are fourth on offense, fifth on defense, and seventh on special teams. They can blow teams away in an instant and can grind out wins when they need to. That is a sign of a potential champion.
The Green Bay Packers are not having it easy this year, with Jordan Love hurt again. There is every chance he either misses this game or plays it at far less than 100%.
The Packers are statistically proving to be a middle-of-the-pack team, with an 11th-ranked offense and 18th-ranked defense. Green Bay’s only quality win this year came over the Texans, a last-second win at home.
The Packers’ 6-2 record feels flimsy, with losses to the Eagles and Minnesota Vikings highlighting their struggles to get results when facing top-12 teams. Being at home could be the equalizer if the weather plays ball, but it’s hard to pass up the Lions laying less than a touchdown in this contest.
Prediction: Lions 27, Packers 20
Pick: Lions -4
Lions at Packers Game Insights
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions have scored 30-plus points in four straight games – it’s the first SEASON in which they’ve scored 30 points in four games during the 2000s.
QB: Detroit has won five straight games, and in those games, Jared Goff has a 146.6 in-pocket passer rating (78-94 for 1,023 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception).
Offense: Jahmyr Gibbs has a 45-plus yard rush TD in consecutive games, the fifth running back to do that since 2016 (others: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt).
Defense: In four of their past six games, the Lions have held their opponent to an under-30 % conversion rate on third downs (last week vs. Titans: 3-0]of-11, 27.3%).
Fantasy: David Montgomery has scored in six of seven games this season, but he hasn’t cleared a dozen carries in a game since Week 3 at Arizona.
Betting: Since 2020, the Lions have been 28-13 ATS (68.3%) in games played after Halloween, which is three full games better than any other team.
Green Bay Packers
Team: The Packers ended last regular season winning six of eight games, and they’ve opened this season with a 6-2 mark (of those four losses, three came by fewer than six points).
QB: Jordan Love has thrown an interception in every game this season, and eight of nine have come when operating in the pocket.
Offense: The Packers entered the red zone on a season-high 46.2% of their drives against the Jaguars.
Defense: Green Bay forced Jacksonville to go three-and-out on 58.3% of their drives last week, the defense’s best showing this season.
Fantasy: The status of the QB position means the world in terms of fantasy efficiency for Josh Jacobs. In his last two games with Love starting, he’s come in 38.4% over expectation – in Malik Willis’ two starts, 39% under expectation.
Betting: Since 2020, the NFC North has the three top teams in over percentage in games played after Halloween (Packers: 62.8%, Lions: 61%).
