The Indianapolis Colts will face the Houston Texans in Week 8. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Colts skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 8 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Anthony Richardson, QB
The idea of investing in a player like this makes all the sense in the world. Richardson has every tool, and given that we had very little in terms of NFL reps entering this season, why would we not be excited about his potential?
Is his profile not similar to Jayden Daniels, but sacrificing a little bit of speed for 30 pounds of muscle?
That’s why we aim high. If you’re right, you put yourself in a position to win your league (I’m guessing the team with Daniels is sitting pretty in your league). If you’re wrong, players like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold could have been had late or picked up off the wire to give you a chance. In essence, you have the chance to win your league without the risk of losing it.
The process I stand by, but the results are clearly a problem. Through three drives on Sunday, Richardson had as many fumbles lost as completions. Over his past three starts, he has two more rushing attempts than completions.
Simply put, this offense doesn’t match what their starting quarterback does well, and I don’t see that changing. The Texans have been challenged downfield as often as anyone with the highest opponent average depth of throw, but they allow the fewest yards per deep pass attempt and that tanks Richardson’s ceiling.
Could he run for multiple scores in an effort to keep this game close? Anything is possible, and he certainly wasn’t shying away from contact. But without any confidence in his passing numbers, Richardson ranks outside of my top 15 at the position this week.
For what it’s worth, I’m already intrigued about next week’s matchup against the aggressive Vikings. Can he punish them for single coverage downfield? Can he break off a few chunk runs? If the breakout is coming, that is a spot I view as more interesting than this one.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
Taylor sustained a right high-ankle sprain Week 4 against the Steelers and has missed the last three games as a result, but his ability to handle a full allotment of practice reps both Thursday and Friday indicates he’s ready to take on most, if not all, of his normal workload.
Prior to the injury, he averaged 19.5 touches for 106.5 yards from scrimmage per game while scoring four rushing TDs in four contests. If Taylor cedes any work to other RBs, though, Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson will be on hand to give him the occasional breather.
In his absence, Sermon has played 57% of the snaps, while Tyler Goodson has played 43%. However, Goodson has far outperformed Sermon in that stretch, averaging 4.7 yards per rush compared to 2.9 for Sermon.
That said, Taylor (or the backs behind him) isn’t returning to an ideal matchup. Houston allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and is sixth-best by EPA per rush.
Trey Sermon, RB
Sermon entered the season labeled as the proper Jonathan Taylor handcuff, and when the starter suffered a high ankle sprain, the fantasy community flocked to add the former Buckeye.
Three weeks into this experiment, it’s clear that the Colts and fantasy managers alike are moving on. Sermon is seeing his snap edge over Tyler Goodson evaporate (52.5% snap share last week), and for good reason:
Sermon’s production, Weeks 5-7:
- -33% production below expectation
- 0.3 yards per carry before contact
- 0.6 points per touch
Goodson’s production, Weeks 5-7:
- 5% production over expectation
- 2.2 yards per carry before contact
- 0.9 points per touch
Sermon has earned more than a single target just once this season, lacking the versatility it takes to return any sort of value in a committee situation.
Tyler Goodson, RB
As previously mentioned, Goodson has earned the right to be the featured back in this offense when Jonathan Taylor is out. He scored his first career touchdown last week (seven-yard run) and, despite limited usage, has a run of 17+ yards in each of his past three games.
All signs are pointing in the right direction, but there are still plenty of risks we need to consider. Goodson didn’t see a target last week, and there isn’t much hope in that regard given Anthony Richardson’s limitations. In a perfect matchup, a Flex ranking would be possible, but with running backs as a whole producing 7.3% under fantasy expectations against the Texans this season, not to mention a negative game script, I’m not touching this backfield.
Alec Pierce, WR
In Week 1 against these Texans, Pierce turned three targets into 125 yards and a touchdown. He’s one of four receivers to have a 20-point game against the Texans this season (Brian Thomas Jr., DeMario Douglas, and Justin Jefferson being the others), though his general profile (13.3% on-field target share with just one end-zone target) doesn’t scream “sustainable.”
Anthony Richardson owns the lowest passer rating of qualified signal callers this season, and that makes a skill set like Pierce’s even more volatile. The Texans own the lowest opponent deep completion percentage (22.6%, barely half of the league average), and with them transitioning to a more run-heavy offense, there are various volume red flags.
Pierce is a more viable dart throw when Richardson is under center, but that doesn’t mean you swing for the fences with no teams on a bye. If you’re itching for upside, I’d rather take a chance on Gabe Davis in a better matchup with more projectable pass attempts.
Josh Downs, WR
After three straight games with over 65 receiving yards, a run that included a pair of touchdowns, Downs was a victim of the limitations of this offense and turned three targets into a whopping three yards.
Downs is a talented receiver, but with a 6.7-yard career aDOT and nearly 80% of his routes coming in the slot, his role is not going to soak up consistent usage in an Anthony Richardson-led unit, especially with Michael Pittman Jr. active. The weekly floor is as low as it gets for Downs and with the best defense in terms of slot completion percentage (53.2%) on the other sideline, the odds of a floor performance spike.
Michael Pittman Jr.
I don’t want to say that Pittman is bizzaro Jaylen Waddle, but …
Pittman with Anthony Richardson, 2024
- 17.4% under fantasy expectations
- 11.9 aDOT
- 57.1% catch rate
Pittman with Joe Flacco, 2024
- 7.8% over fantasy expectation
- 8.9 aDOT
- 63.2% catch rate
While Waddle is a bench player until his preseason QB1 is back under center, it’s looking more and more like Pittman is a bench player only when his preseason QB1 is under center. Last week, Pittman led the Colts in catches and targets while accounting for 48.8% of the team’s receiving yards. That’s a profile that usually prefaces a breakout stat line — but nope, not the case here.
It took all of that for Pittman to get you 9.3 PPR points. Under normal circumstances, I’d write off such inefficiency as an outlier, but this has proven to be the norm. Back in Week 1, against these Texans, Pittman earned a 42.1% target share and turned that impressive usage into 7.1 points.
This is a square-peg/round-hole situation, and while there will likely be moments of production, you are acting with too much hubris if you think you can pinpoint those spots. Pittman is a WR4 for me this week — why wouldn’t I play Jauan Jennings against a banged-up Dallas defense while fulfilling the Brandon Aiyuk role or Darnell Mooney (8.3 targets per game over his past six games) against a vulnerable Buccaneers defense on short rest over him?
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Game Insights
Indianapolis Colts
Team: One team this season is giving away at least five minutes in time of possession per game, and it’s the Colts – at -7:34 per game.
QB: Anthony Richardson’s 48.5% completion percentage is the lowest through a team’s first seven games since Josh Freeman in 2013.
Offense: The Colts are allowing pressure on just 27.9% of dropbacks, the third-lowest rate in the league.
Defense: Indianapolis has allowed a touchdown on just 2.2% of deep passes, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
Fantasy: Tyler Goodson has finished each of the past three weeks as RB33 or better (Trey Sermon has finished worse than that in the past two weeks).
Betting: The Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games with a projected point total north of 45 points.
Houston Texans
Team: A win would be Houston’s third straight over Indianapolis, tying their longest win streak ever vs. the Colts (also done from 2015-16).
QB: C.J. Stroud ranks second in EPA per dropback against man coverage (0.36), but only 24th against zone (-0.11). The Colts play zone coverage at the third-highest rate of any defense (78.7%).
Offense: The Texans allowed a 51.7% pressure rate in Sunday’s loss to the Packers, their second-highest in C.J. Stroud’s 22 career starts.
Defense: The Texans have allowed a touchdown on a league-high 7% of opponent passes.
Fantasy: Nico Collins was injured on Stroud’s way to a second straight game with over 330 passing yards and has missed two games now – Stroud has 278 yards through the air in those contests. In Weeks 1-5, Stroud completed 51.2% of his 8.2 deep pass attempts per game and was threatening defenses vertically on a consistent basis. Since, he’s at 36.4% on 5.5 attempts per game.
Betting: Unders are 9-4 since the start of 2020 when the Texans host a divisional opponent (69.2%).
