Week 8 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers
With seven weeks of data, could Week 8 be our most profitable yet? Sportsbooks have installed plenty of road favorites and big spreads — this is a unique betting board, and I’m here to walk you through the NFL picks for every game.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Week 8 NFL Picks and Predictions
Kyle Soppe‘s Picks
- Bengals -2
- Browns +8.5
- Lions -11
- Cardinals +3.5
- Cardinals/Dolphins highest-scoring Sunday game (+900 at DraftKings)
- Patriots +7
- Falcons/Buccaneers under 46
- Packers/Jaguars under 49.5
- Jordan Love under 0.5 interceptions (take down to -120)
- Colts +5
- Chargers -7
- Bills/Seahawks under 47
- Josh Allen under 234.5 pass yards (take down to 230)
- Broncos -8.5
- Chiefs/Raiders over 41
- Bears MLB with Commanders under 21 points
- 49ers -4
- Steelers -6.5
David Bearman‘s Picks
- Jets/Patriots under 41.5 (will play anything in the 40’s)
- Cardinals +3.5
Jason Katz‘s Picks
- Trevor Lawrence under 235.5 passing yards
- Nick Chubb under 59.5 rush + receiving yards
- Jordan Love longest completion over 37.5 yards
- Kenneth Walker III 60+ rushing yards
- Javonte Williams over 62.5 rushing yards
- Kyler Murray under 209.5 passing yards
- Jared Goff under 29.5 pass attempts
- Taysom Hill over 14.5 rushing yards
- Ezekiel Elliott under 16.5 rushing yards
- Zamir White under 11.5 rushing yards
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-2, 48)
Soppe: When you look at this line, it might surprise you to see the 3-4 Cincinnati Bengals favored over the 4-2 Philadelphia Eagles after Philadelphia’s defense imposed its will over the Giants and has allowed just 19 points in the two weeks since coming out of its Week 5 bye.
That said, those were two of the worst EPA offenses in the league. The Eagles travel to face the sixth-best offense in the sport, led by Joe Burrow and his 8.3 yards per pass attempt over his past five games.
Jalen Hurts is a surprising 2-11-1 ATS (15.4%) in his past 14 games against teams that enter the game with a losing record, a box these Bengals check despite a 3-2 mark when both of their star receivers are healthy.
Pick: Bengals -2
Baltimore Ravens (-8.5, 44.5) at Cleveland Browns
Soppe: The Baltimore Ravens look like an unstoppable force at this point, but this is a lot of points to lay in a divisional road game on short rest. Jameis Winston will get the start for the Cleveland Browns, and his reckless nature is prohibitive in a lot of ways, but I’m not sure that’s the case against the third-worst EPA pass defense in the NFL.
Cleveland’s run defense has improved recently; for me, that opens the back door. Even if Baltimore were to dominate this game and look to ice the game, a late 16-point lead could turn into an eight-point win with a late punt and Winston staring at garbage time.
Lamar Jackson is 1-8 ATS (11.1%) in regular season games as a favorite of more than seven points since 2021, and while I don’t think they are in danger of losing this game outright, there are a lot of ways to cash this ticket. Baltimore is playing in its fourth city in four weeks, a stretch that started with bonus football in Cincinnati.
Pick: Browns +8.5
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-11, 45)
Katz: The Detroit Lions haven’t actually been as run-heavy as they seem. They have a 48% neutral game script run rate, which is 14th in the league. But their overall run rate is 50%, ninth in the league. They also play at the second-slowest pace in the league.
This has all the makings of a blowout. The Lions are 11-point home favorites, and the line continues to climb. The Tennessee Titans just traded away DeAndre Hopkins. Calvin Ridley is banged up. This feels like a spot where the Lions will take an early lead and be able to run the ball 35 times.
Goff has been ridiculously efficient lately, completing 76 of his last 91 passes. Over that span, he has three games with 280+ passing yards but attempted just 25, 25, 18, and 23 passes in his last four games. In total, Goff has attempted more than 28 passes just once. That came in the Lions’ lone loss against the Bucs in Week 2.
If the game script goes as expected, Goff should not need to reach 30 pass attempts for just the second time this season.
Pick: Jared Goff under 29.5 pass attempts
Soppe: Per our Week 8 Insights Stat Packet: “The Lions didn’t average more than 2.36 points per drive in any of their first three games this season. Since, however, they’ve been at 2.82 or better, averaging a difficult-to-comprehend 3.53 points per drive over that stretch.”
Kalif Raymond scores to extend the Lions lead!
📺: #DETvsMIN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/VlmyxbeUOa— NFL (@NFL)
Over its past 21 home games, Detroit is 15-6 ATS (71.4%) with overs coming through 14 times (66.7%), including three out of four games when the Lions are giving more than seven points. The Titans have an above-average defense, but this was the fourth-worst EPA offense before trading DeAndre Hopkins. That might mean that the Lions only need 25 points to cover this number … they are averaging 30.3.
Pick: Lions -11
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 45.5)
Katz: I’m beginning to think Murray isn’t particularly good. Just a hunch. Murray seems to have no idea what to do with a mega-talent like Marvin Harrison Jr. What happened to the guy who was able to pepper Hopkins with targets?
This year, Murray looks like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. The Arizona Cardinals have resorted to leaning heavily on James Conner. Even in a two-minute drill to secure a comeback win against the Chargers last week, they utilized Conner, not the passing game.
Murray has thrown for under 200 yards in four starts this season. Having not attempted more than 34 passes in a single game, it’s clear the Cardinals do not want Murray airing it out too much, no matter the game script.
Murray is averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt, and most of his passes are to the boundaries. He doesn’t like to use the middle of the field, which limits his explosive play ability.
The big story out of Miami is the return of Tua Tagovailoa, but the underappreciated story is how great this pass defense has been. They’re allowing just 154.5 passing yards per game, the fewest in the league. Eventually, a great quarterback may be able to get them. Murray is not that guy. I don’t think he gets to 200 and would play this down to 205.5.
Pick: Kyler Murray under 209.5 passing yards
Soppe: To properly evaluate a bet against the field like this, I’d need to detail every single matchup on the slate, and I’m fairly confident that none of you want to read 15,000 words on a single bet. I’m also fairly confident that you’re interested in a +900 bet with some statistical backing, so I’ll share why I like this side of the bet as opposed to dismissing the others.
Tagovailoa’s return cannot be overstated, but it’s also difficult to project with confidence, so let’s put that on hold and just look at this matchup
- The only game with two top-10 pace teams
- The only game with two top-10 offensive lines at preventing pressure when not blitzed
- The only game with two bottom-10 defenses in yards per deep pass
- One of three games with below-average YAC on short passes
With the weather not projected to be an issue (none of the games priced ahead of this game are played indoors), why can’t this game go back and forth in a major way?
To cash bets in a market like this, we need a fast start and splash plays, right? The Cardinals are the fourth most efficient (points per drive) first-quarter team through seven weeks, a stat the Miami Dolphins ranked sixth in during Mike McDaniel’s tenure entering this season.
I’ll happily take my chances on the pace getting set in a significant way by these offenses most weeks, but when you consider that both of these defenses rank in the bottom 10 in first-quarter efficiency, it’s wheels up!
As for the splash plays, I’m not sure I need to sell you, but if I do: the Cardinals rank fourth in the league in 40-yard touchdowns this season and the Dolphins have three more than any other team since 2022 despite the missed time from their starting quarterback.
I’m taking a lineup off of my DFS budget this week and putting those funds toward this game shooting out.
Pick: Cardinals/Dolphins highest-scoring Sunday game (+900 at DraftKings)
Soppe: If you have a good handle on this game, you’re lying to yourself. None of us know what Tagovailoa is going to look like in his return to action. What we do know is that Murray’s teams have thrived as an underdog in games with a reasonable projected total.
For his career, Murray is 22-11-1 ATS (66.7%) when catching points in a game with a total of over 45 points. I’ll back that trend with the thought that this 3-4 Cardinals team is better than its record suggests (losses to the Bills, Lions, Commanders, and Packers) and that the Dolphins might need some time to rediscover their high-flying form.
Pick: Cardinals +3.5
Bearman: Tagovailoa is back, yes. That should change some things with the Dolphins’ offense, but is it enough to make this team a 3.5-point favorite over the Cardinals? We don’t need to go back into all the numbers to show just how bad the Dolphins have been without Tua the last four games, but let’s also point out they struggled with him for the first two games of the season, scoring 30 total points against the Bills and Jaguars.
Yes, the passing will be further downfield and more accurate, but unless the O-line all of a sudden remembers how to pass block, the team learns how to get third/fourth-and-shorts, and players stop getting silly penalties, the improvement won’t be drastic. The Cardinals will have to go across the country on short rest, which is never a good combo, but they are also coming off wins over the Niners and Chargers over the last three weeks.
Murray quietly has this offense moving, and they will surprise some teams this season. The Dolphins with Tagovailoa should win this on paper, but they were also one play away from a 0-2 start with him. I expect this to be a close game and will take the three-and-a-hook with the Cardinals.
Pick: Cardinals +3.5
New York Jets (-7, 41) at New England Patriots
Soppe: Stepping in front of Aaron Rodgers isn’t comfortable, especially with Davante Adams in the building for a full work week, but this projects as a lower-scoring game, and the New England Patriots offense has shown some juice since Drake Maye took over.
The New York Jets haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game this season and are averaging just 15.3 PPG during their four-game skid. Do we trust them to score enough to cover a spread like this?
Rookie quarterbacks are 36-20-2 ATS (64.3%) over their past 58 games when playing at home with a total of under 45 points. I don’t have a strong feel for this game, so I’ll side with history here and take a key number in a game with a low total.
Pick: Patriots +7
Bearman: You know I love unders, and you know I double down on unders with poor-performing offenses. Enter these two AFC East rivals. Even with some extra offense with Maye under center, the Patriots offense is awful, ranking 30th in yards per game, 22nd in rushing, and 31st in passing. The Pats’ 14.1 points per game are just ahead of the Dolphins, and they haven’t scored more than 21 points in any game this season.
The Jets have tried everything, from a healthy Aaron Rodgers to a new coach to a new WR, and still are terrible on offense. Since scoring a whole 24 points in back-to-back wins in Weeks 2 and 3, the Jets have scored 61 total points (15.3 PPG) in four games, one point more than the Patriots.
Even when they do move the ball, it’s a lot of dump-offs to the RBs or short passes, as Rodgers’ offense is third in the NFL in passes with 10 or fewer air yards and 29.3% of the Jets’ passing yards have come on balls thrown less than three yards downfield (NFL average: 23.2%). The last five times these teams met, they have totaled 39, 13, 25, 20, and 27 earlier this season. I do not expect a lot of points here.
Pick: Under 41.5
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 46) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Soppe: Is the projected total for this game being inflated by the 36-30 thriller these two teams played in Week 5?
I think it is. That was an indoor game played on short rest that went to overtime and featured star receivers who won’t be in the mix for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this time around. Yes, these are the same two franchises that competed on Oct. 3, but they are two very different teams.
What has the potential to be overlooked is Tampa Bay’s commitment to a three-back system, something that positions it to assume a higher rush rate over the expectation that we’ve seen up to this point. Since the start of last season, unders are 7-2 when Kirk Cousins starts in a game with a spread that is no larger than three points; if possessions are going to be limited, I think that trend continues.
Pick: Under 46
Green Bay Packers (-4, 49.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Katz: This is such a perfect spot for Jordan Love to really air it out. The Jaguars are a classic pass funnel defense. They’re allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game and the Packers possess an inefficient plodder at running back. Through the air, the Jaguars can’t stop anyone. They’re allowing the second-most passing yards per game.
Most important to this bet is Love’s propensity to air it out. His 8.9 air yards per attempt is fourth in the league. He’s sixth in the league with 26 deep ball attempts. As a reminder, he missed two games.
The Jaguars allow a 57.14% completion rate on deep balls. That’s the second-highest in the league.
Love has completed a 40+ yard pass in four of his five starts this season. With guys like Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed running downfield, Love is bound to connect on a deep one. I don’t expect this line to move much, but I’d play it at 38.5, too.
Pick: Jordan Love longest completion over 37.5 yards
Soppe: The Jacksonville Jaguars have traditionally performed better when returning from London than before, and if they are competitive against the Green Bay Packers, it’s not because they are going blow for blow with Love.
Unders are 12-3 (80%) when Trevor Lawrence is a home underdog, a spot he finds himself in this week. Even if the Packers were to roll, I’m not sure this total comes in. Green Bay owns the sixth-best EPA defense this season and plays slower on the offensive end than the league average.
Jacksonville has failed to clear 20 points in all five of its losses, and if that continues, we are in a good spot.
Pick: Under 49.5
Soppe: Love has a little Brett Favre in him. He puts the ball in harm’s way (INT in every game this season) more than Cheesehead Nation would like. However, if you remove the aggression, you take away some of what makes him special.
This bet won’t come without a sweat, but as a significant road favorite, the hope here is that the game script keeps Love’s volume in check. I’ll tempt fate against the league’s lowest interception rate defense (0.4% of attempts).
I’m more targeting Jacksonville than I am supporting Love. The Jags blitz at the lowest rate in the league and own the fourth-lowest opponent average depth of throw this season. If Love has time to throw, I trust his decision-making, and the depth-of-throw numbers are exactly what you’d expect:
NFL interception rates, 2024:
- Short (under 10 air yards): 1.1%
- Intermediate (10-15 air yards): 3.7%
- Deep (16-plus air yards): 6%
We saw Love give the ball away early last season (10 interceptions in his first nine games) before correcting his ways (one pick the rest of the way), and this matchup could be one that trends him in a positive direction as Green Bay tries to win the NFC North.
Pick: Jordan Love under 0.5 interceptions
Katz: So far, Trevor Lawrence has gone over this number in exactly one game this season. That came against a Colts defense ranking in the bottom third of the league against the pass. This week, the Jaguars have a home game against the Packers. As only four point underdogs, this game does not project to be a blowout. That should prevent the Jaguars from having to abandon the run.
Most importantly, the Packers are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. They just gave up 115 yards to Joe Mixon while holding C.J. Stroud to just 86 passing yards. On the season, they allow 203.9 passing yards per game. Lawrence can play well and still not get close to 235 passing yards. I would play this down to 230.5
Pick: Trevor Lawrence under 235.5 passing yards
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-5, 46)
Soppe: These two teams played in Week 1, a 29-27 Houston Texans win. In that game, Nico Collins (six catches for 117 yards) helped open things up for Joe Mixon to run for 159 yards and a score. In that game, Houston had the ball for four minutes, won the turnover battle, and cashed in all its red-zone trips … the Texans won by two points.
The score was impacted by a pair of Anthony Richardson bombs, but that’s part of the risk you run when fading the Indianapolis Colts. Road teams have covered 16 of the past 23 AFC South divisional games (69.6%), and I’m worried about this Texans offense when it comes to covering a number like this.
C.J. Stroud ranks second in EPA per dropback against man coverage (0.36) but only 24th against zone (-0.11). The Colts play zone coverage at the third-highest rate of any defense (78.7%).
Pick: Colts +5
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 40.5)
Katz: This line feels like an out of sight, out mind reaction to Taysom Hill. Injuries have limited Hill to just three games played this season, but he’s gone over this number in all three.
More importantly, the Saints are still without Derek Carr. Given how ineffective Spencer Rattler has been, combined with Alvin Kamara playing through several injuries, including a broken hand, it only makes sense for the Saints to use their gadget man a little more.
It would not be a surprise if Hill played 30-40% of the snaps and saw pretty solid overall usage. If he gets at least 3-4 carries, he has a good chance to go over. He may end up seeing 5+ attempts.
Pick: Taysom Hill over 14.5 rushing yards
Soppe: Six weeks ago, this spread might have been the exact opposite. The New Orleans Saints were flying high and defending well, but neither of those things are happening right now. The Los Angeles Chargers aren’t an exciting team, and since they have yet to play in a game that reaches 40 points, covering a number like this is certainly a concern. However, we are betting on this defense.
Los Angeles allows a score on just 25% of drives this season, the lowest rate in the league and 13 percentage points better than the league average. That puts Justin Herbert, 7-3 ATS (70%) when giving more than six points (15-17-1 otherwise), in a position to make a few plays and get us home.
Pick: Chargers -7
Buffalo Bills (-3, 47) at Seattle Seahawks
Katz: Last week, one of the very, very few props I lost was Tony Pollard’s rushing yardage over against this Buffalo Bills defense. It was a brutal loss, as he actually went over his number shortly after halftime, before going backward and being taken out of the game plan because the Titans fell behind by so much.
We will continue to attack the Bills’ run-funnel defense with an even more talented runner. Walker has been phenomenal this season. He’s averaging 4.66 yards per carry, and the Bills allow 5.1 yards per carry.
The only reason the Bills don’t look worse defensively against the run is because they have been good enough to take the run away from opponents by securing leads. With the Seattle Seahawks only sitting as a three-point home underdog, the game script should not get away from them.
Walker is a safe bet for 14+ carries. In a game where the Seahawks won’t have DK Metcalf, expect them to lean even more on their lead running back. I would take this up to 75.5.
Pick: Kenneth Walker III to rush for 60+ yards
Katz: This is the second time I’ve taken Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s longest reception under 19.5 yards. He’s played in seven games this season. He has exactly one catch for more than 19 yards. Care to guess when that happened?
Silly me for not going back to this well every week on this check-down specialist. Hopefully, lightning doesn’t strike twice against us.
The reason JSN doesn’t get downfield targets is because he doesn’t earn them. It isn’t the offensive coordinator’s fault. It isn’t Geno Smith’s fault. Smith-Njigba just isn’t that good of a player.
JSN’s 7.7 aDOT is 80th in the league. All he does is rack up receptions underneath. Without Metcalf, there may be an expectation that JSN’s role will change. It won’t. He may see some more volume, but unless he rips off a big gain after the catch, it should be more of the same.
The Bills have one clear objective on defense every week: do not get beat deep. Opponents are completing just 33.3% of their deep balls against them, the seventh-lowest rate in the league. If Smith does find someone deep, it’s far more likely to be Tyler Lockett. If Smith-Njigba does end up with a big game, I’m expecting it to be one that would make Jarvis Landry shed a tear — something like seven catches for 40 yards.
I would play this down to 18.5.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba longest reception under 19.5 yards
Katz: C.J. Stroud is the only quarterback to legitimately complete a pass deeper than 34 yards against the Bills. Rodgers technically did it too, but it was on his halftime Hail Mary to Allen Lazard. Otherwise, the Bills and their two-high look have surrendered just one deep pass this season.
With Metcalf out, combined with the Bills being much more vulnerable on the ground, it’s even less likely that Smith completes a deep pass.
Pick: Geno Smith longest completion under 34.5 yards
Soppe: The Bills hung 34 points on the Titans last week in Amari Cooper’s debut, a production level that should have put the league on notice. This team averaged just 17.7 points per game in their three previous games, but the addition of a star receiver makes them a true title threat if you didn’t view them as such already.
That said, unders are 11-4 in Allen’s last 15 games as a road favorite. Their run game projects very favorably in this spot, and that means the clock will be ticking. Seattle likely plays without Metcalf and will be motivated to limit the number of possessions in this game, knowing that their best defense against Allen might be their offense.
Pick: Under 47
Soppe: The star quarterbacks continue to win at a high level in 2024, but the stats aren’t piling up the same way they have in the past. Allen is averaging just 17 completions and 27 pass attempts per game this season. Do we think this offense suddenly opens up against a Seahawks defense that ranks 27th in rush success rate, RB yards gained before contact per carry, and RB yards gained after contact?
The Seahawks are vulnerable on the ground, and with favored Buffalo ranking 15th in pass rate over expectation (down from eighth last season), the volume is likely to be limited.
Seattle ranks second in pressure rate when not blitzing this season, a skill proven effective against Allen in 2024 (16-of-42 passing in such spots). Thanks to a few big hits, Allen averages 7.0 yards per pass in those circumstances, a rate that mirrors his career average. The Bills allow non-blitz pressure 36.4% of the time (26th), so for this exercise, I’ll split the difference, leaving us with a projected non-blitz pressure rate of 38.5%.
Before I walk you through the math, you need to be aware that the Seahawks allow 7.0 yards per pass this season and Allen averages 8.1 yards per pass when not in that pressured-but-not-blitzed bucket
Let’s do some basic math using these rates. If we are penciling in 27 attempts for Allen:
- 10.4 attempts when pressured but not blitzed: 72.8 yards
- 16.6 other attempts: 123.8 yards
That leaves us at an admittedly low 196.6 passing yards for Allen. Using this math, let’s check his yardage projection at certain pass-attempt thresholds:
- >30 attempts: 220.2 passing yards
- 32 attempts: 234.8 passing yards
- 34 attempts: 249.5 passing yards
Since Joe Brady took over this offense, Allen is throwing 28.2 pass attempts in victories, something expected with the Bills’ moneyline price at -160.
Pick: Josh Allen under 234.5 passing yards
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 41.5)
Katz: Last week, I was on Brian Robinson Jr.’s rushing yardage over. It hit. Why? He was facing the Carolina Panthers. The week before, I was on Bijan Robinson’s rushing yardage over. It hit. Why? He was facing the Panthers. You see the trend here.
That is really the extent of the process. Javonte Williams has played over 60% of the snaps in three straight games, re-establishing himself as the Denver Broncos’ clear RB1. He ran the ball 14 times for 88 yards against the Saints’ soft run defense last week.
Now, Williams gets the worst run defense in the league. The Panthers allow 162.1 rushing yards per game. Their defensive rush success rate is 54.2%, fourth worst in the league. They allow 4.7 yards per carry.
With the Broncos being heavy home favorites in a game they should lead throughout, Williams should see plenty of opportunities in this one. I think he can get there by halftime. I would play this up to 66.5.
Pick: Javonte Williams over 62.5 rushing yards
Soppe: I didn’t have “Bo Nix as a 9.5-point favorite” on my 2024 bingo card, and I certainly didn’t see myself backing such a spread, but here we are. Rookie QBs favored by more than seven points have covered 13 of their past 19 games (68.4%), a shocking trend and one that points to the public not loving these spots, thus betting the number off of what it should be.
Bo Nix is a SPECIAL talent.
The Broncos have a superstar QB in the making 🔥 pic.twitter.com/j3c4BrzkoH
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh)
Denver is coming off the mini-bye after a win on Thursday night in which it got its run game going, and that’s the key. If Williams can be efficient on the ground, it opens up the potential for Nix to pick apart this vulnerable secondary. With Pat Surtain II likely back, do the Panthers get to 17 points? What about 14 points?
Pick: Broncos -9.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 41.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Katz: I was hoping to play Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards under, but he has a stranglehold on the RB1 job and the line was just too little at 40.5. My concern was he could get there on raw volume, despite being inefficient against a great run defense. That brings us to Zamir White.
The Raiders’ former lead back did not lose his job due to injury. Mattison played better. After returning last week, White earned himself all of three carries in a game that was competitive throughout.
This week, the Raiders project to face negative game script against a Chiefs run defense allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.
White played 11 total snaps last week. He was not only behind Mattison, but behind Ameer Abdullah as well. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if he didn’t touch the ball this week.
Pick: Zamir White under 11.5 rushing yards
Soppe: One team brings in a star receiver while the other lets one walk. The Kansas City Chiefs continue to win by the slimmest of margins, and that makes laying a big number difficult, but we do have a nice trend when it comes to the total.
Overs are 8-3 (72.7%) over Patrick Mahomes’ past 11 road divisional starts, and we have a few avenues to cashing this ticket. If this game is tight, that means that the Las Vegas Raiders put some points on the board, and we know the Chiefs can score late (27% more points per drive in the final 15 minutes than the first 45 this season).
Gardner Minshew II is back under center for the Raiders, and his style of play is more favorable for betting an over given his wider range of outcomes. He’s an aggressive QB who will push the envelope, and that’s all we can ask for — whether it works or not, it helps the scoring environment.
Pick: Over 41
Chicago Bears (-3, 43.5) at Washington Commanders
Soppe: Patience. We as a society lack it, and we are no different in the betting space. Chicago Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams was a mess to open his career, and that might be a disservice to the word “mess.”
Weeks 1-3:
- 59.3% completion percentage
- 5.3 yards per attempt
- 65.3 passer rating
- 13.7 pressure passer rating
- 0.5 touchdown-to-interception rate
Williams’ struggles were magnified by Jayden Daniels’ immediate success (through those three weeks, Williams had the fourth-lowest passer rating in the NFL while Daniels had the fourth-highest). That, naturally, resulted in plenty of people writing him off as an impact player in 2024.
But what’s this? A player who can develop with time?
Weeks 4-6:
- 74.1% completion percentage
- 8.5 yards per attempt
- 122.8 passer rating
- 109.6 pressure passer rating
- 7.0 touchdown-to-interception rate
Since 2021, rookie quarterbacks have a winning ATS record as a road favorite (8-7), but let’s get creative. In seven of those covers, under tickets cash. I don’t want Williams to ruin my ticket in a game supporting him, so I’m isolating the Washington Commanders’ team total to leverage that trend.
SGP: Bears ML with Commanders under 21 points
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 46)
Katz: Prior to the Cowboys’ bye week, Ezekiel Elliott had a conversation with coaches about his lack of touches. He wound up playing 41% of the snaps and carrying the ball eight times, both highs since Week 1. Of course, it didn’t exactly go well, as the once elite running back Elliott is not an NFL-caliber player anymore.
Elliott has gone over this number in three straight games…barely. It took him five, six, and eight carries to get to 19, 17, and 17 yards.
The Cowboys spent their bye week lamenting their blowout loss at home to the Lions. Changes are afoot. One such change is the elevation of Dalvin Cook from the practice squad.
Now, to be fair, the version of Cook we saw last year was no better than the version of Elliott we’ve seen this year. But the Cowboys haven’t gotten a chance to see what they have with Cook.
Rico Dowdle will continue to lead this backfield, but the 1b behind him may very well be Cook this week. If that happens, Elliott may be limited to only a handful of snaps. In fact, there’s a chance this bet ends up voiding because he doesn’t see the field. Here’s to hoping Elliott has an extremely small role.
Pick: Ezekiel Elliott under 16.5 rushing yards
Soppe: How does a trend on a trend sound? Dak Prescott opened his career 15-8-1 ATS (65.2%) as an underdog, but he’s covered just two of his past 10 such spots in the regular season. His passer rating and touchdown rate are both pacing for career lows, numbers I’m not sure will normalize until this offense gets either a run game it trusts or a reliable WR2.
The San Francisco 49ers are dealing with plenty of offensive injuries, and that’s obviously a concern, but Brock Purdy has the ability to operate this offense on time and execute a game plan against this banged-up Dallas Cowboys defense.
Pick: 49ers -4
New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 36)
Soppe: I don’t know about you, but I was very impressed with Russell Wilson in his season debut. He gave George Pickens the chance to win down the field while operating an otherwise conservative offense (75.9% of his passes came in below his average depth of throw). With Najee Harris running hard, I think this Pittsburgh Steelers offense actually has more upside than the numbers have shown up to this point.
Since 2019, teams favored by at least six points when the total closes under 38 points are 11-3 ATS (78.6%). Sportsbooks don’t generally miss when assigning big numbers like this in low-scoring games, and I don’t think they have here. New York Giants rookie WR Malik Nabers is a potential game-wrecker, but we saw this defense hold CeeDee Lamb to just 7.4 yards per target in Week 5; if they can replicate that success, I like our chances.
Pick: Steelers -6.5
This angle of George Pickens Touchdown…
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥#NFL #Steelers pic.twitter.com/5W7YcLmMrN
— The Standard (@TheStandard412)
