We are coming up on the midpoint of the 2024 NFL season. At this point, it’s clear who the favorites are for NFL MVP. However, as is the case with football and betting markets, the results of each week can and will change the odds. Let’s take a look at the MVP betting landscape ahead of Week 8.
NFL MVP Odds and Betting Analysis
When it comes to figuring out who the NFL will award its MVP, it’s not all about player performance. The best player doesn’t always win it — team success matters. If last year was any indication, it’s perhaps even more important. With that in mind, here are the current six favorites to win the 2024 NFL MVP.
Odds To Win the 2024 NFL MVP
- Lamar Jackson (+250)
- Patrick Mahomes (+400)
- Josh Allen (+550)
- Jared Goff (+600)
- C.J. Stroud (+1100)
- Jayden Daniels (+2000)
Lamar Jackson
There’s no debating Jackson as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Yet, 2023 Jackson will go down as one of the least deserving MVP award winners in NFL history.
How exactly did Jackson win it? The Ravens went 13-4 and were the No. 1 seed in the AFC. He was the quarterback on the best regular-season team. That goes a long way.
By no means did Jackson play poorly, he actually played quite well. He just wasn’t there statistically, largely due to Gus Edwards stealing so many touchdowns (13, to be exact).
Jackson threw for 3,678 yards, 24 touchdowns, and seven interceptions while rushing for 821 yards and another five scores. Those are not even close to MVP numbers.
Now, one year later, I fear that Jackson may not win the award he very much deserves (so far) due to fatigue. Jackson just won it last year. This would be his third. We’ve seen voters in all sports have a desire to give it to someone new.
With that said, there needs to be a legitimate candidate. Right now, there isn’t one. Jackson is averaging 258 passing yards per game and 65 rushing yards per game. He’s accounted for 17 touchdowns while throwing just two interceptions. He’s been the best quarterback in football.
I actually threw a bet down on Jackson at +650 two weeks ago. I feel very good about him at those odds. However, at +250, I can’t endorse betting the favorite.
Patrick Mahomes
I’ve maintained since 2020 that Patrick Mahomes is the greatest quarterback of all time. I still feel that way. But Mahomes’ pedigree is the only reason he’s anywhere near the top of this list. Well, that and the fact that the Chiefs are undefeated.
Unless something turns around for this offense, though, it would be a travesty if Mahomes won his third MVP.
The Chiefs are the best team in football. They are undefeated because Mahomes is a wizard, and they have an elite defense. But how in the world is the betting favorite for MVP a guy with six passing touchdowns and eight interceptions through seven weeks?
Yeeeesh 😤 @patrickmahomes pic.twitter.com/gOGusEJSgl
— NFL (@NFL)
Mahomes is averaging 231 passing yards per game, his career worst. He is so far behind Jackson that I struggle to see any path to him deserving the award without a massive and unpredictable turnaround.
Josh Allen
Despite being a top-three quarterback every year since his breakout 2020 season, Josh Allen has yet to win an MVP. He deserved it last year for willing the Bills into the playoffs, winning five straight games to close out the season.
This year, Allen is once again posting MVP numbers. He has 12 passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns, and no interceptions this season. That’s unheard of through seven weeks.
After scratching and clawing their way to an AFC East title last season, the Bills are running away with it this year. If Jackson slows down a bit and the Bills end up as the No. 1 seed, combined with potential fatigue as it relates to Jackson having just won it last year, there’s definitely a world where Allen secures his first career MVP.
Jared Goff
One of the most underrated and underappreciated quarterbacks in the NFL, you’re good enough for Detroit, Jared Goff! But is he good enough to win MVP? Probably not.
The Lions may be the best team in football. They certainly are the favorites to come out of the NFC right now. If they end up as the No. 1 seed, that would go a long way toward boosting Goff’s chances at an MVP.
Stat of the day: In their past four games, the Detroit Lions have scored more touchdowns (18) than Jared Goff has had incompletions (15). pic.twitter.com/MitItzhsP1
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
With that said, it will be difficult for Goff to post the numbers necessary to win MVP. The Lions run the ball so much, especially near the goal line. Goff may end up with really good numbers at the end of the year, but it’s hard to see him winning MVP without Jackson or Allen faltering significantly.
C.J. Stroud
What is Stroud even doing on this list? He’s averaging 237.6 passing yards per game and has thrown 10 touchdowns against four interceptions. He offers nothing with his legs, meaning he will need an outlier passing season to justify an MVP award.
The Texans are 5-2, which is pretty much the entire reason Stroud is among the top five favorites for MVP. In his last two games, he’s thrown for 192 and 86 yards. This offense has not looked the same since Nico Collins went down. Stroud will have to survive at least two more games without his WR1.
Things change quickly. Stroud could hit the gas over the final month of the season and surge to an MVP behind something like a 13-4 record. But it’s not likely. I do not think Stroud is a good bet.
Jayden Daniels
This was always a long shot. Jayden Daniels has exceeded all expectations as a rookie. However, is the NFL really going to give an MVP award to a rookie?
I bet Daniels three weeks ago at +5000 because those odds were outrageous. And they were. Even though that looks like great value now, he’s still nowhere near a frontrunner for the award.
Two years ago, we saw two missed games cost Jalen Hurts an MVP. Daniels is likely to miss at least a game, if not a couple, with his rib injury. Granted, Hurts’ missed games were at the end of the season, which didn’t allow him time to remind everyone just how good he was. Daniels will be back and have that opportunity.
At 5-2, the Commanders are the favorites to win the NFC East. However, it would be an upset if they ended up any better than the No. 2 or 3 seed. It’s hard to see a rookie quarterback who missed a couple of games on a not-top-seeded team win MVP, especially in light of the competition he faces.
