The weather forecast for Week 7 appears to be relatively friendly, apart from a handful of games. The first of those comes from London, where wind, rain, and relatively low temperatures could have an impact. However, once we head back to the United States for our games, the majority should be pretty calm.
Let’s examine the full NFL weather forecast for Week 7 and decipher what fantasy football impacts there might be across the nine games being played in outdoor stadiums on Sunday and Monday.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 7 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 6 a.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024. UK Weather data is from BBC Weather. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Weather
- Kickoff:Â 9:30 a.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: <90% chance at kickoff decreasing throughout the game
- Wind: 15-20 mph northeasterly
If it wasn’t bad enough that the final London game is between two 1-5 teams with temperamental offenses, the weather forecast may make this game an even worse offensive showing.
At kickoff, there is expected to be around a 90% chance of rain in northwest London and, with it, wind speeds of anywhere up to 20 mph. That is a pretty tricky combination when you then throw in sub-70 temperatures.
Wembley is a tricky stadium when it comes to the wind because it is very high-sided and has a partial roof. That can reduce the impact of the wind, but it can also swirl around under the partial roof and make things difficult to predict. Therefore, let’s focus on the fantasy impact of the combination of rain and temperatures in the low 60s.
Gloomy skies over Wembley Stadium this morning, majority of seats are covered but playing surface and seats closest to the pitch get wet. #ASJax @ActionSportsJax https://t.co/sEmZG2S3Ha pic.twitter.com/7Ar6E9jfnz
— Stuart Webber (@StuartASJax)
Dating back to 2019, we have 32 games that have kicked off in similar conditions to those forecasted in London today. The average PPR fantasy output across those games is 82.7, which is considerably lower than what we see on a clear day with warmer temperatures.
We are talking about a 15-20% decrease in fantasy output on average across those games, which is significant when discussing mediocre offenses.
The combination of wind in the 15-19 mph region and rain produces around a 25-30% decrease in fantasy output on average. With the wind an unknown, we are starting at a baseline of around a 15% decrease in fantasy output and moving anywhere up to that 30% mark. That is a wide range, but the message is clear. Approach this London game with extreme caution from a fantasy perspective.
One final element to consider is that Wembley has had the ninth-lowest fantasy output per game of 39 stadiums since 2019. In the passing game, it ranks seventh from last, and it’s 12th-lowest in fantasy output of the running game.
These weather conditions and this stadium favor no one in this game. If you can avoid the majority of it from a fantasy perspective, that might be wise.
Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills Weather
- Kickoff:Â 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 14-15 mph southwesterly with gusts up to 26 mph
The wind speed in this game may look alarming when we see shots from Highmark Stadium, but generally, there’s not much to worry about when we get this combination of weather conditions in a game.
The clear weather is the key here because if you combine these temperatures and wind speeds with rainy conditions, then things change considerably.
In regards to the temperature, this game very much falls in the upper range of fantasy outcomes since 2019. The wind is a touch higher than we would ideally like (anything below 10 mph), but at most, you’re looking at a reduction of 5% in terms of fantasy points per game. The gusts could be troublesome at times, but they are very hard to predict in terms of frequency and length.
There should be no major concern about starting anyone in this game, at least not from a weather perspective.
Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers Weather
- Kickoff:Â 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 11-15 mph southwesterly with gusts up to 28 mph
This is another game where the wind is potentially going to look worse than the impact it has on the game. Wind speeds up to 15 mph in clear conditions have very minimal impact on fantasy output, with a less than 5% drop on average. The temperatures are also pretty much perfect from a fantasy perspective.
The gust could cause issues, but they’re hard to predict. Wind speeds of up to 28 mph start to affect fantasy output, even in clear conditions. If these were sustained winds, we could be talking about a drop of 25-30% in terms of fantasy output. However, gusts are much harder to predict than sustained winds. We may see the occasional ball blown off the line on deep passes or the kicking game, but that should be the extent.
This has the makings of a high-octane fantasy game, and there should be no reason to majorly downgrade anyone. Nevertheless, we’ll keep an eye on the forecast to ensure the gusts don’t become sustained winds closer to kickoff.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Weather
- Kickoff:Â 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7-8 mph southwesterly
The weather forecast in Cleveland this morning looks good. Fantasy managers couldn’t ask for better weather when it comes to temperature, wind speed, and lack of rain. Anyone you were planning to rely on for this game should not be downgraded because of weather conditions this week.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants Weather
- Kickoff:Â 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3-8 mph southwesterly
While MetLife Stadium gave us a couple of poor-weather games last weekend, this week should be a different story. The weather looks fairly set in the New Jersey area, which is good news for fantasy managers. No one in this game should get a downgrade based on the weather.
Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Commanders Weather
- Kickoff:Â 4:05 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 0-4 mph westerly
The first of our late-afternoon games set a trend for what should be a nice slate of games weather-wise. There is not expected to be any rain in the Maryland area during this game, and the wind is more than just pleasant; it’s basically non-existent. These are perfect fantasy football conditions.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Weather
- Kickoff:Â 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3-10 mph northwesterly
The good news is that the weather should not impact what looks to be one of the best NFL games of Week 7. The temperature is ideal, the skies will be clear, and while the wind may pick up throughout the game, the impact should be minimal.
There should be no reason to have any concern over the weather forecast in this matchup when setting fantasy lineups.
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Weather
- Kickoff:Â 8:20 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5-6 mph westerly
The story of the weather in Pittsburgh is similar to Maryland and Santa Clara. In fact, the weather conditions across the three stadiums would make you think these games are being played right next to each other.
That is great news for fantasy managers, as there should be no concern over what will await you in the games during the late afternoon or evening slates on Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Weather
- Kickoff:Â 8:15 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8-10 mph northeasterly
The story of generally nice weather in the games being played in the United States continues when we look ahead to Monday night. One game is being played in a dome, and the other is being played in relatively calm conditions in Tampa Bay. There may be some shots of gusty weather from the area ahead of kickoff, but they’re expected to die down by kickoff as things stand Sunday morning.
Evewn if the gusts do creep into the game itself, the impact should be minimal. The bigger concern would be if that forecast changes from gusts at 18-20 mph to sustained winds in that region. That is unlikely, but we are forecasting weather 36+ hours in advance, so things could shift slightly in that timeframe.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals | Monday, 9:00 p.m.
