The Cincinnati Bengals’ upset loss to the New England Patriots likely eliminated over 30% of survivor league teams in Week 1, which gives you an opportunity to capitalize on the thousands of entries that failed to make it out of the opening week of the 2024 NFL season.
Pro Football Network asked our NFL staff for their Week 2 picks. Let’s break down our staff’s unanimous (and near-unanimous) selections for Week 2 so you know which games to attack in your survivor league.
PFN Staff’s Unanimous Picks in Week 2
PFN’s staff unanimously predicted five teams would win in Week 2: the Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers.
Baltimore Ravens Over Las Vegas Raiders
In Week 1, the Las Vegas Raiders lost to the Chargers 22-10. Las Vegas struggled to get anything going on offense, running just one play in the red zone throughout the entire contest.
Meanwhile, the Ravens piled up 452 yards of offense while holding the ball for 33:43 in their Week 1 loss on the road against the Chiefs — only three times in all of 2023 did a team lose when hitting both of those thresholds. Baltimore came close to defeating the defending champion Chiefs, and the PFN staff expects them to dominate the Raiders.
Dallas Cowboys Over New Orleans Saints
New Orleans blew out the Carolina Panthers in Week 1, putting up 47 points and dominating them on both sides of the ball. The Saints allowed the Panthers to pick up just 10% of their third downs, matching their second-lowest rate allowed since 2021.
However, our staff believes that the blowout victory says more about the Panthers’ current state than it does about the Saints.
The Cowboys also had a one-sided affair in Week 1, defeating the Cleveland Browns 33-17. Since 2021, the Cowboys have gotten off to strong starts, posting a 10-3 record with a +137 point differential over the first four weeks of the season.
Houston Texans Over Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears escaped with a 24-17 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 1, largely due to their defense.
Offensively, it wasn’t pretty.
Chicago had just one play that gained 15+ yards in Week 1 (after having three in every game of last season). The Bears posted a 33.9% offensive success rate against the Titans, which was down from last year’s 38.9% rate despite adding a lot of offensive talent over the offseason.
Meanwhile, the Texans defeated the Indianapolis Colts 29-27 last week. Houston had 15 plays of 10+ yards in Week 1 and have now hit that total in seven games since the start of last season.
This should be a fun battle of up-and-coming QBs C.J. Stroud and Caleb Williams, but PFN’s staff believes the Texans will pick up the win.
Kansas City Chiefs Over Cincinnati Bengals
In Week 1, the Chiefs kicked off the 2024 NFL season with a 27-20 win over the Ravens. Kansas City’s speed was on display, with first-round rookie Xavier Worthy scoring two touchdowns. Now, if wide receiver Hollywood Brown is able to play, Kansas City will be even faster.
Patrick Mahomes has been on fire as of late, completing over 70% of his passes in four straight games and in five of his past six (a streak that started against the Bengals in Week 17 of last season).
On the other end, the Bengals were arguably the biggest disappointment of Week 1, losing 16-10 to the Patriots at home. Joe Burrow threw for just 164 yards and zero touchdowns, and Cincy rushed for just 70 yards. Tee Higgins will likely be out once again, and our staff expects Kansas City to run away with this one.
Los Angeles Chargers Over Carolina Panthers
The Panthers looked horrendous in Week 1 in the blowout loss to the Saints. The game was even more one-sided than that score indicates, too.
Carolina struggled in every facet of the game. The Panthers went three-and-out on 61.5% of their drives in Week 1 (after their 38.9% rate during the 2023 season was third worst in the league).
Bryce Young was PFN’s lowest-graded QB last season, and he posted the worst passer rating (32.8) of his career last week in New Orleans. Defensively, they allowed the Saints to put up 47 points, 379 yards, and convert 22 first downs. Also, the Panthers’ 26.2 net yards per punt was the lowest in the league for Week 1.
Carolina has lost a league-high five games by 21+ points since Week 6 of last season (only four other teams have multiple such losses over that stretch). Meanwhile, the Chargers started the Jim Harbaugh era with a 22-10 win over the Raiders. Don’t overthink this one.
Honorable Mention Picks in Week 2
In addition to our unanimous picks, 13 of the 14 PFN staffers selected the same team to win in three games. We’ll include those as our honorable mention selections.
Detroit Lions Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thirteen of our 14 staffers selected the Detroit Lions to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bucs will travel to Ford Field in this rematch of last year’s NFC Divisional Round showdown. While the Bucs’ Week 1 win over the Washington Commanders was impressive, they won’t be at full strength with safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and cornerback Bryce Hall both out, plus a number of truly questionable players (including cornerback Zyon McCollum, right tackle Luke Goedeke, and defensive tackles Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall).
Since the beginning of December 2022, the Lions are 10-2 during the regular season at home, averaging a league-high 419.8 yards of offense per game. Also, Detroit’s defense is significantly better at Ford Field, allowing 13.6% fewer yards per play at home than on the road.
Dakota Randall is the only PFN writer who has the Bucs upsetting the Lions.
San Francisco 49ers Over Minnesota Vikings
The 49ers kicked off their season with an impressive win over the New York Jets on Monday Night Football, and 13 of our 14 staffers expect them to pick up right where they left off against the Vikings.
Minnesota is also 1-0 after beating the New York Giants, 28-6. But our staff doesn’t have faith in this Vikings team against tougher competition like the contending 49ers.
Even with Christian McCaffrey’s status up in the air, PFN believes San Francisco will remain undefeated. The Niners always seem to enter the season well-prepared. During the first month of last season, they went 5-0 and scored 30+ points while allowing no more than 16 points in four of those contests.
Jay Morrison is the lone staffer who picked the Vikings.
Philadelphia Eagles Over Atlanta Falcons
Entering the season, the Falcons were hyped up as a team on the rise and picked by many to win the NFC South. However, things did not go as planned in Week 1.
Kirk Cousins didn’t look like himself, the offense struggled mightily, and as a result, Atlanta lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 18-10. After not posting a single passer rating under 80 in eight starts last season, Cousins posted a 59 in Week 1.
Now, the Falcons will face even tougher competition in the 1-0 Eagles, who defeated the Green Bay Packers 34-29 last Friday in Brazil. Again, 13 of our 14 staffers picked Philly in this game — with the one exception being Adam Beasley.
Survivor Picks Strategy for NFL Week 2
In case this is your first time playing in a survivor league, the Bengals’ upset loss at the hands of the Patriots is a reminder of the madness that can take place in this contest on a weekly basis.
Sure, the late-week hamstring injury Tee Higgins suffered, coupled with Ja’Marr Chase dealing with an illness, made this game a bit riskier than originally anticipated. Still, few NFL pundits gave New England a chance to win on the road against a potential Super Bowl contender with Jacoby Brissett under center and Jerod Mayo making his head coaching debut.
Nevertheless, this upset was a perfect reminder that this is the NFL, where anything can happen on any given Sunday.
As mentioned last week, simply picking the biggest favorite on a weekly basis — which will normally include some of the best teams in the league — might feel like a safe strategy, but it doesn’t exactly guarantee you’re going to advance.
In fact, picking another team with a favorable matchup but a slightly lower spread could greatly position you to capitalize in your survivor league if a major upset happens, like it did on Sunday.
This is why I’m here to provide you with some additional long-term strategies to help optimize your weekly picks, position yourself to win now and later, and, ultimately, hoist your survivor league championship trophy.
I don’t particularly have any unbreakable rules when selecting games, but I have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games
- Avoid picking road teams
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast
I want to be clear, these rules aren’t gospel. This doesn’t mean you can’t pick a divisional matchup when making your weekly selection. Just be cognizant of the fact that opponents who are very familiar with one another could play out a bit differently than you expect if you’re just looking at team records.
Additionally, we really want to do everything within our power to avoid using teams that hold significant future value through the first five weeks of the NFL season.
For example, since the Seattle Seahawks were the most selected team that won in Week 1, I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation for the week.
If you have any survivor questions specific to your league, please don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message or join our Discord channel so we can talk on that platform.
This appropriately brings us to the section where we start laying out our battle plan for the first month of the season. To accomplish that objective, here are two sets of strategies you could deploy to keep those teams available heading into October.
Strategy 1
Week 2: Baltimore Ravens (vs. LV)
Week 3: Cleveland Browns (vs. NYG)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (vs. NE)
Week 5: Chicago Bears (vs. CAR)
Top teams still available: KC, PHI, BUF, DAL, MIA, HOU, DAL
Strategy 2
Week 2: Houston Texans (vs. CHI)
Week 3: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. WAS)
Week 4: New York Jets (vs. DEN)
Week 5: Los Angeles Rams (vs. GB)
Top teams still available: KC, PHI, BAL, SF, MIA, BUF, DAL
In both strategies, you get to keep more than a handful of projected playoff teams with some elite options at quarterback available after the first month of the season, which really comes into play once bye weeks begin in Week 5.
Another popular strategy is to simply tail a terrible football team. I’m completely on board with this strategy, which means targeting teams we expect to struggle. This strategy could work out very well, but I would advise waiting until we get to Week 3 to deploy it.
If you recall, most NFL pundits didn’t expect the Houston Texans to be a playoff team last year — which means they eliminated many survivor league participants in 2023 when they turned out to be far better than expected.
Sure, we expect teams like the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, and Tennessee Titans to struggle this year. But I would still exercise a bit of caution early on before assuming these teams will be awful in 2024. After all, the Patriots proved in Week 1 that these teams don’t always live up to their low expectations early in the season.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love is expected to miss the next 3-6 weeks while dealing with a knee injury, which could make them a viable candidate to target if they struggle with Malik Willis or Sean Clifford under center.
During that stretch, the Packers will play the Indianapolis Colts, Titans, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, and Texans. Personally, I would feel comfortable utilizing the Colts during this time and would consider the Rams, Cardinals, and Texans if Love’s injury keeps him on the shelf for the entire six-week timetable and the Packers’ offense looks rough with a backup quarterback under center.
