Cummings’ Summer 2024 AFC West Season Predictions: Chiefs Prosper Again, Chargers Fall Short

As the 2024 regular season approaches, it’s time to look at our NFL season predictions on the NFL Draft side. Here we’ll look strictly at the AFC West.

Which NFC teams are projected to exceed expectations, and which teams are expected to have a chance at adding blue-chip talent in the 2025 NFL Draft? Using the PFN Season and Playoff Predictor, I played out the entire season, generating the draft order that I predict we could see when we head to Green Bay next year. This list only contains the predicted draft pick order for the AFC West.

Whether you love or hate what you see in my predictions, reach out to me on X @IC_Draft.

Cummings’ Summer 2024 AFC West Season Predictions

1) Denver Broncos (3-14)

It’s never fun for fans to see their team projected with the No. 1 overall pick. In this prediction, the Denver Broncos and New York Giants were tied with the lowest record — but the Broncos won out at the top of the board with a lower strength of schedule.

There are elements of the Broncos’ roster I like, chief among them All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. But Bo Nix is a rookie quarterback with a weapons core that’s relatively susceptible to injury. There are holes in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and the talent core is thin outside of Surtain and several others.

I expect the Broncos to be competitive in their fair share of close losses, and I think better days will come for Sean Payton with another year of building. But in the AFC, the margin for error is slim, and the losses could stack for an incomplete team like this one.

Prospects to Watch: Luther Burden III, Travis Hunter, Will Johnson, Mason Graham

3) Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)

I actually like the Raiders’ roster more than their 4-13 record would imply. The offensive line is stronger now, save for right tackle. The defensive line can be a stalwart force with Christian Wilkins, Maxx Crosby, and others. And Antonio Pierce can coach his players up.

For Las Vegas, my biggest questions come at quarterback and defending the pass on the other side of the ball. Amidst a heavy AFC arms race, the Raiders’ offense might stall out with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew, and the running game might not be strong enough to rely on.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, someone will have to step up alongside Jack Jones and Nate Hobbs out of DeCamerion Richardson and Jakorian Bennett. Vegas has more than enough talent to play spoiler a few times, but consistent wins may not come until 2025.

Prospects to Watch: Carson Beck, Donovan Smith, Jaxson Dart, Shedeur Sanders

9) Los Angeles Chargers (7-10)

If we’re being honest with ourselves, the Los Angeles Chargers’ roster almost looks like a 5-12 or 6-11 squad. But the experience of Jim Harbaugh and the sheer talent of Justin Herbert — now with a competent line in front of him — should be enough to get L.A. closer to .500.

Against teams with stifling secondaries, the Chargers’ weapons core might not be enough to stay afloat. And against teams with more offensive firepower, the Chargers’ patchwork defense could be exposed. But the Chargers’ strong coaching foundation and QB play should be of aid in Harbaugh’s first year back.

Prospects to Watch: Tetairoa McMillan, Colston Loveland, Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham

30) Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

As long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are together, it doesn’t matter what’s happening around them. The Chiefs will be one of the finalists in the AFC. That much has been assured in recent years. It doesn’t look like it will change in 2024.

That said, there are small susceptibilities underneath the surface. The Chiefs’ receiving core still has questions orbiting its long-term viability. Kingsley Suamataia is a rookie at left tackle. And on defense, youth at the boundary cornerback spot could prove easy to expose.

These susceptibilities are ultimately why Kansas City is not my Super Bowl pick for the AFC — but Mahomes will have them on the doorstep again. It’s just what he does.

Prospects to Watch: Shavon Revel, Tacario Davis, Chris Brazzell II, Patrick Payton