Pittsburgh Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth burst onto the fantasy football scene. He scored on 17.4% of his collegiate receptions at Penn State and his nose for the end zone seemingly translated — he was one of four tight ends to catch 60 passes and score seven times during his 2021 rookie season.
It’s been tough sledding since, though, as he has scored just four times in 28 games, a crippling development given that he averages under 10 yards per catch for his career and offers very little upside aside from touchdown count.
Can he recover with a change under center in his age-25 season?
Should You Select Pat Freiermuth at His Current ADP?
ADP:Â 133rd Overall (TE15)
What’s the upside? Why invest in an Arthur Smith offense if you’re not forced to?
Freiermuth is being selected as TE15 and outside of the first 10 rounds. But in a position that is getting increasingly deep, his profile just doesn’t interest me at all. He has one career game with over 85 receiving yards – and 18 with under 30. Generally speaking, I don’t mind a low floor at the position, but if there isn’t a high ceiling to complement that risk, what exactly are you aiming for?
Cole Kmet and Luke Musgrave are a pair of NFC North tight ends being drafted in this range. I’m not positive they outproduce Freiermuth, but I’d rather bet on their respective offenses, which have the potential to score 30 points in any given week.
Heck, you could make the same case for Jonnu Smith with the explosive Dolphins. Cade Otton never comes off the field for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that at least gives him the opportunity to fall into some PPR value. If you’re considering Freiermuth at the end of your draft, you can aim for a higher ceiling with the understanding that you’re likely to be cycling through the position throughout the season.
For the recovered, Otton’s Bucs open the season with the Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, and Atlanta Falcons – not a bad run if you’re just trying to piece together the first month of the season and go from there.
Freiermuth’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
When a player succeeds, you want to see his situation remain as close to stable as possible. Of course, the opposite is also true. Freiermuth wasn’t a top-20 option at the position last season, and while that is concerning, labeling it as sticky for 2024 isn’t fair.
This season, the quarterback situation has improved, and the target equity should spike. Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Mitch Trubisky were responsible for running this offense a year ago. While Russell Wilson’s best days are in the rearview and Justin Fields’ development has stalled, it’s a net upgrade.
I’d bet on Fields being under center when your fantasy season is on the line in the second half of the season, and he helped Kmet set career highs in catches (73) and yards (719) last season (13 TDs over the past two years).
Another OTA practice, another look at the Steelers QBs — including a nice connection between Justin Fields and Pat Freiermuth pic.twitter.com/4SIfk4eYM5
— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor)
When it comes to targets, where is the alpha target earner? We expect George Pickens to dominate the opportunity share, but we don’t have proof of concept in him as the leader of an offense (5.6 targets per game for his career). Even if he takes a massive step in his third season, with Diontae Johnson joining the Carolina Panthers this offseason, the depth chart is bereft of proven NFL talent.
- Van Jefferson: 1.9 catches per game for his career
- Roman Wilson: Rookie coming out of a run-heavy Michigan offense
- Calvin Austin III: One career game with 40+ receiving yards
- Quez Watkins: 3.0 targets per game for his career
- Scotty Miller: 85 catches in 67 career games
Freiermuth earned 6.1 targets per game in 2022 and could very well surpass that number this season. That said, for a player who is likely to rely on touchdowns to drive his value, is there enough equity in this low-octane offense?
