Tyler Lockett’s Fantasy Profile: A Veteran WR with a Low Fantasy Ceiling in 2024

The Seattle Seahawks‘ addition of rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn’t exactly do veteran wideout Tyler Lockett any favors from a fantasy production standpoint, which raises questions about his outlook heading into the 2024 NFL season.

Is Lockett positioned to be the odd man out in the Seattle passing game this year or is he a great draft day value in fantasy football?

Should You Select Tyler Lockett at His Current ADP?

PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 129th Overall (WR50)

• Decline in Production: Lockett’s streak of four straight seasons with 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs ended in 2023, as he finished with 79 receptions for 894 yards and five scores. This led to a WR32 finish in full-PPR formats, his lowest since 2017.
• Impact of Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The addition of first-round WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who excels in the slot, reduced Lockett’s slot usage to its lowest since 2016. This shift in role likely contributed to his drop in production.
• Stable Target Volume: Despite the decline in production, Lockett saw five more targets in 2023 than in 2022. His air yards, average depth of target, and red-zone targets were also similar to the previous year, making the drop-off in fantasy output puzzling.
• Concerning Target Separation: Lockett’s target separation dropped from 2.25 yards in 2022 (fifth among WRs) to 1.59 yards in 2023 (58th among WRs). This could indicate a loss of speed or the impact of facing tougher outside coverage.
• Uncertain Future: Lockett’s age (31) and a new offensive scheme under coordinator Ryan Grubb add uncertainty to his 2024 outlook. The combination of aging, competition with DK Metcalf and Smith-Njigba, and Geno Smith’s possible decline complicates his fantasy projection.
• ADP Analysis: Lockett’s ADP of WR50 in the 11th round feels low for a player with his track record, especially given his consistent involvement in the offense. He’s being drafted after younger players like Jameson Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., and Courtland Sutton.
• Final Verdict: While Lockett’s decline in 2023 raises concerns, his current ADP offers value as a Flex option. His past production and continued involvement in the Seahawks’ offense suggest he could still be a reliable fantasy asset, making him a potential draft day steal in 2024.

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PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Tyler Lockett

Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Lockett is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead. 

46) Curtis Samuel, WR | Buffalo Bills
47) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | Seattle Seahawks
48) Jameson Williams, WR | Detroit Lions
49) Jordan Addison, WR | Minnesota Vikings
50) Jakobi Meyers, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
51) Tyler Lockett, WR | Seattle Seahawks
52) Christian Watson, WR | Green Bay Packers
53) Mike Williams, WR | New York Jets
54) Josh Downs, WR | Indianapolis Colts
55) Romeo Doubs, WR | Green Bay Packers
56) Adonai Mitchell, WR | Indianapolis Colts

Tyler Lockett’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season

Lockett’s streak of four straight seasons with 1,000+ yards receiving and 8+ TDs came to an end last year with his 79 receptions for 894 yards and five scores on 122 targets, which resulted in a WR32 finish in full-PPR formats — his lowest mark since 2017. This drop in production has fantasy managers wondering what exactly went wrong last year.

For starters, the addition of a talented first-round receiver who does his best work out of the slot certainly didn’t help matters. Ironically enough, Lockett saw his lowest alignment percentage from the slot since 2016 — which speaks to Smith-Njigba’s impact on his role in this offense.

Yet, Lockett actually saw five more total targets last year than he did in 2022, where he finished five more receptions, 139 more yards, and four more scores than in 2023. That is a bit puzzling. Honestly, some of the other advanced analytics stats look strikingly similar, too.

Air Yards

• 2023: 1,322
• 2022: 1,300

Average Depth of Target

• 2023: 10.8
• 2022: 11.1

Red-Zone Targets

• 2023: 13
• 2022: 9

The numbers above make it a bit harder to explain why Lockett went from the WR13 in 2022 to the WR32 in 2023. Yet, the target-separation drop is a potentially concerning metric that speaks to his role changing from a high-usage slot option to one that spends more time on the outside.

Target Separation

• 2023: 1.59 (58th amongst qualified WRs)
• 2022: 2.25 (fifth amongst qualified WRs)

Lockett’s average cushion marks in both seasons ranked inside the top 10 at the position. This could suggest he has lost a bit of a step accelerating out of breaks and thereby creating great separation consistently, or it could be a reflection of having to square off against outside corners a bit more often.

The presence of DK Metcalf or Smith-Njigba isn’t my biggest concern here. My attention has turned to Lockett’s drop in production despite his still very involved role in this passing game. This has me wondering if the 31-year-old receiver has simply hit the age cliff or if quarterback Geno Smith’s drop in efficiency is truly to blame here.

I believe the answer could be a bit of both, which makes for a tricky projection for Lockett in a different passing scheme under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb heading into 2024.

Lockett’s track record of fantasy excellence should allow fantasy managers to give him the benefit of the doubt for last year. Yet, once we’ve seen a small drop in production from a smaller veteran wide receiver… the fall from grace can come very quickly.

Is Lockett a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?

Lockett’s current ADP sits at No. 129 overall in the 11th round as the WR50 off the board. This means he is currently being drafted after players like Jameson Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., and Courtland Sutton at his own position.

I understand Lockett was definitely impacted by the addition of Smith-Njigba last year, but this feels like a bit of a steep fall for a player who was still a productive and reliable fantasy option in 2023.

Naturally, an aging smaller receiver who is competing with younger and very talented pass catchers for targets isn’t exactly an ideal scenario to project a return to Lockett’s previous top 15 fantasy WR production this year. But, him being selected outside of the top 50 at the position feels a bit harsh.

Lockett may be trending in the wrong direction, but he presents a nice draft day value as a viable Flex option for your fantasy roster in 2024.