The Detroit Lions‘ backfield has churned out multiple fantasy producers over the last two years in this high-powered offense. Despite Jahmyr Gibbs getting a significant amount of hype and adoration over the last year, it was actually David Montgomery who led the team in carries in 2023.
Will Montgomery continue to see enough work in this Lions’ backfield in 2024 to give him another favorable fantasy football outlook this season?
Should You Draft David Montgomery in 2024?
Through the first five weeks of the 2023 NFL season, Montgomery appeared like the most valuable fantasy RB in Detroit.
Despite missing one game, Montgomery was the RB8 in full-PPR formats with 88 carries for 371 yards and six rushing TDs through the first five weeks of the year. During this same timeframe, Gibbs was RB32 with just 39 carries for 179 yards and no scores.
As fate would have if, Montgomery would get injured against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, which gave Gibbs an opportunity for an expanded role in his absence.
Unfortunately for Montgomery, Gibbs seized this opportunity and made a compelling enough case to see a significantly expanded role once he returned to the lineup in Week 10. From that point on, Gibbs looked like the preferred option in the backfield, albeit with Montgomery still having a very valuable fantasy role in the Detroit offense.
Detroit Lions Fantasy Stats From Weeks 10-18
- Gibbs: 106 carries, 546 rushing yards, 24 receptions, 151 receiving yards, 9 TDs (RB5)
- Montgomery: 125 carries, 630 rushing yards, 10 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 7 TDs (RB13)
From a total touches standpoint, it was nearly a 50/50 split, with Montgomery seeing just five more total touches than Gibbs during that stretch. The efficiency during this span was pretty close, too, with both players averaging 5.0+ yards per carry over the back half of the year. However, Gibbs edged out Montgomery in the total touchdowns department and saw significantly more work in the passing game overall.
One of the biggest reasons fantasy managers were so excited about Montgomery’s fantasy upside was him being the betting favorite to see more work near the goal line. This did turn out to be the case, with Montgomery seeing 17 carries from inside the five-yard line — which was tied for fourth in the league with Christian McCaffrey — but Gibbs still see eight carries in the same range and converted five of them into scores.
Montgomery proved he was preferred short-yardage option, but he actually had a lower TD-conversion rate than Gibbs in that area of the field.
If you could guarantee me that the roles would stay exactly the same in Detroit this year, then I’d likely be a bit more aggressive with Montgomery in my fantasy rankings. Yet, Gibbs was the more efficient and explosive player with higher yards per touch (5.4 to 4.8) and explosive-run rate (8.2% to 3.7%) in comparison to Montgomery.
It’s hard to imagine a world where Gibbs doesn’t see his role expand in 2024. Yet, Gibbs’ fantasy managers may be trying to fool themselves if they believe Montgomery is going to be completely phased out this year either.
Ultimately, this Lions high-powered offense generating excellent game scripts and red-zone opportunities behind a great offensive line is likely to make both player fantasy producers again in 2024.
Montgomery’s ADP of No. 62 overall as the RB21 off the board in the sixth round feels like a great value for a player who has seen 200+ carries every single year of his NFL career in an explosive offense.
Other running backs in this range like James Conner, Zamir White, and Rhamondre Stevenson all have some question marks on their fantasy profile, which makes Montgomery a solid investment at this range.
