Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans is entering his age-31 season but has yet to show any signs of decline (79 catches in 2023, his most since 2018). He doesn’t, however, have elite quarterback play and thus has some swings in production from week to week.
Should you feel comfortable in counting on Evans continuing to produce at a high level or is it wise to build in some fantasy football regression as he challenges the age curve?
Should You Select Mike Evans at His Current ADP?
ADP:Â 29th Overall (WR13)
Evans is a player I have more exposure to in best ball formats than redraft. The numbers always seem to be there in the end, but he never ranks too highly in the consistency rankings, and I don’t think that changes this season.
Evans had eight games last season with four or fewer catches, and in weeks in which he doesn’t score, you’re losing ground in your matchup (7.6 PPR points per game). He is currently coming off draft boards in the second half of Round 3 (WR17), putting him ahead of the Cooper Kupp/DJ Moore/DeVonta Smith/DK Metcalf tier of receiver, and I think that’s about right.
For me, Evans is a situational buy. If you’ve locked in a strong production floor through two rounds, go for it. If you have some week-to-week variance already on your roster, I’d be more likely to take players in Kupp/Moore that I project to be more consistent, albeit with less upside.
Evans’ Fantasy Profile For the 2024 NFL Season
There were concerns last season about the viability of this passing game with Baker Mayfield taking over for Tom Brady, but those worries were dismissed in a hurry after Evans scored in three straight games to open last season.
He never really slowed down, clearing 1,000 receiving yards for the 10th straight season (an NFL record for consecutive seasons to open a career) and bouncing back from “only” six scores in 2022 with 13 in 2023.
Mike Evans goes 75 yards to get the lead back!
đź“ş: #CARvsTB on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/xvCjbLUIcN pic.twitter.com/3aOjMTBQzj— NFL (@NFL) December 3, 2023
It’s only natural to worry about production for a veteran as the season wears on, but Evans was at his best in Tampa Bay’s final game of the season (eight catches for 147 yards and a touchdown in a playoff loss in Detroit).
2023
- Evans: 79 catches on 136 targets for 1,255 yards
- Chris Godwin: 83 catches on 130 targets for 1,024 yards
Both final stat lines point to a viable connection with Mayfield, though it should be noted that while Evans clicked with the new signal-caller right away, Godwin didn’t find his stride until the final four games (25 catches for 365 yards). That’s a minor red flag for those looking to invest in Evans — he caught just 17 passes for 235 yards during that run.
Naturally, you can read that one of two ways. Either Godwin’s production helped take defensive attention off of Evans to open this season, or Godwin is poised to lead this pass-catching core in opportunities, thus making Evans a player with a wide range of weekly outcomes.
I don’t doubt that Evans’ stat line at the end of the season will be something close to what we’ve come to expect (1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns), but I’m skeptical about how we get there.
Godwin led this team in red-zone targets last season (16 to Evans’ 14), and if the 6’5” WR1 isn’t dominating that target share, a decline in touchdown equity could make for some frustrating weeks.
READ MORE: Fantasy Football WR Busts 2024: The Case To Fade Mike Evans, Malik Nabers, and Others At Cost
That said, Evans did have three times as many 40-yard catches as his slot-oriented counterpart, and if you get a big play or a touchdown, having Evans in your lineup won’t hurt you.
On the plus side, we are all keenly aware of how much Evans struggles against Marshon Lattimore and the Saints. You won’t have to worry about one of his matchups with New Orleans, as it comes in Week 18 after most fantasy leagues are decided.
