The Indianapolis Colts are one win from clinching their first playoff berth since 2020 after last week’s narrow 23-20 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. Indianapolis has experienced some ups and downs in recent weeks, including a 2-2 stretch over its last four games that kept it from securing a playoff berth any sooner. Still, the Colts remain in control of their playoff destiny heading into their Week 18 clash with the Houston Texans.
Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 6 and 8:05 a.m. before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Saturday’s loss to the Texans, the Colts have been eliminated from playoff contention.
Saturday Games Update
Steelers (10-7) defeated Ravens (13-4)
Texans (10-7) defeated Colts (9-8)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Colts entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Colts’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in Week 18?
Indianapolis has a fairly simple path to punching its ticket to the playoffs, yet the Colts’ odds of making the playoffs are significantly lower than that of Houston.
In fact, Indianapolis’ odds of qualifying for the postseason come in at roughly 38% (compared to the Texans’ 62%) based on data gathered from simulations of PFN’s Playoff predictor.
Still, the Colts will have every opportunity to qualify for the playoffs. Their first and easiest scenario for clinching a spot in the postseason is by beating Houston in Saturday’s contest. Combining that result with the Jacksonville Jaguars losing to the Tennessee Titans would also give Indianapolis the AFC South title.
The Colts have two other longshot possibilities for making the playoffs. Indianapolis would be in with a tie against Houston combined with the Pittsburgh Steelers losing to or tying with the Baltimore Ravens. The Colts would also qualify and win the AFC South if they tie with the Texans and Jacksonville loses to the Titans.
If any of those scenarios do come to fruition and Indianapolis punches its ticket to the playoffs, it could be anywhere from a No. 4 seed to seventh.
The Colts would be the No. 4 seed as the AFC South champion with a win over the Texans combined with Jacksonville losing to or tying with the Titans.
Indianapolis would finish as the sixth seed with a win over Houston, the Jaguars beating Tennessee, and the Buffalo Bills losing to the Miami Dolphins. A win over the Texans, Jacksonville win, and Buffalo win, however, would drop Indianapolis to the seventh seed.
MORE: Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart
Those various possibilities present the Colts with four potential first-round opponents, assuming they do qualify for the playoffs. Indianapolis would face the Cleveland Browns if it finishes fourth, the Kansas City Chiefs if it finishes sixth, or the winner of the Bills-Dolphins game if it finishes as the No. 7 seed.
Kansas City and Cleveland already have the third and fifth seeds locked up, respectively, while the winner of the Miami-Buffalo game will take the conference’s No. 2 seed.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!Â
