The AFC South playoff scenarios have twisted and turned a number of times over the last few weeks. With all three of them losing last week, the situation entering Week 17 is largely the same as it was. With a three-way tie atop the division right now, we could be in for an exciting couple of weeks.
Let’s examine the potential AFC South playoff scenarios that could play out over the next couple of weeks, both in terms of the division and their standing in the AFC Wild Card picture.
AFC South Playoff Scenarios | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 17, the Jaguars, Texans, and Colts are all 9-7. The Jaguars lead the division via tiebreakers and are currently the No. 4 seed in the AFC. The Colts are in second in the division and currently hold the No. 7 seed in the AFC. The Texans are on the outside looking in, currently eighth in the AFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Texans (9-7) defeated Titans (5-11)
Jaguars (9-7) defeated Panthers (2-14)
Colts (9-7) defeated Raiders (7-9)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Chiefs (10-6) defeated Bengals (8-8)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the AFC South teams entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the AFC South Playoff Scenarios for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans?
As we head into Week 17, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans all sit at 8-7 with two games to play. As things stand, any one of the three could yet win the division, and there is a scenario where all three of them could be in the playoffs when the season ends.
Simulations of PFN’s playoff predictor give the Jaguars around a 65% chance of winning the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Texans have around a 15% chance, and the Colts have around a 20% chance. In Week 17, the Jaguars host the Carolina Panthers, the Texans host the Tennessee Titans, and the Colts host the Las Vegas Raiders.
Despite all three teams being tied entering the week, there is a clinching scenario for the Jaguars this week. If Jacksonville wins and both Houston and Indianapolis lose, then the division crown will be heading back to the Jaguars for another year. That is because the Jaguars are in a better position among the three teams in terms of the NFL playoff tiebreakers.
The Jaguars and Texans split their games this year, but Jacksonville defeated Indianapolis in Week 1 and Week 6. That means in the event of either a two-way tie with the Colts or a three-way tie, the Jaguars will have the head-to-head advantage.
In terms of the Texans, if they lose to the Titans this week, their division record will slip to 2-3. The worst the Jaguars can do there is 4-2, so they would clinch the division in Week 18 if the two teams end up tied.
Essentially, the Jaguars just need to match the results of whoever does the best out of the Colts and Texans. What we know is that they need to avoid losing at least one of their final two games because the Colts and Texans play each other in Week 18. Therefore, Jacksonville needs to finish at least 8-8-1, but more likely is going to need to win at least one of their next two and get to 9-7 if they want a shot at winning the division.
MORE: AFC North Playoff Scenarios and Standings
Jacksonville could be eliminated from division contention this week if they lose and both the Texans and Colts either win or one wins and the other ties in Week 17.
For the Texans and Colts, they really need to win out, which only one of them can do. The Jaguars finish with the Panthers and Titans, which they should be able to get at least one win from. If one of the Colts and Texans wins out, they will win the division if the Jaguars fail to go 2-0.
In the event of a tie between the Texans and Colts in Week 18, combined with the Jaguars going 1-1, Indianapolis would win the AFC South (assuming the Colts and Texans win in Week 17). The Colts defeated the Texans back in Week 2, so would have the head-to-head advantage if those two tied their Week 18 game.
In a scenario where the Jaguars go 0-2 and the Colts and Texans both go 1-1, things get interesting. The Colts and Texans would be tied atop the division at 9-8, and if the Colts win the Week 18 contest, they would win the division based on the head-to-head record.
However, if the Texans win the Week 18 contest, they would be tied on head-to-head and divisional records. That would take it to common games, where again they would both be tied. The Colts would then take the division based on a 7-5 conference record compared to 6-6 for the Texans.
What this all means is that if the Texans lose and the Jaguars or Colts win, Houston is eliminated from AFC South contention this week. Meanwhile, the Colts’ only division elimination scenario this week would be if they lose and the Jaguars win.
Can the Jaguars, Colts, or Texans Still Get an AFC Wild Card Spot?
All three of the Jaguars, Colts, and Texans remain alive in the AFC Wild Card race. Based on our simulations, the Jaguars ended up with a Wild Card spot around 30% of the time that they miss out on the division. For the Texans, they also have just over a 30% chance of getting a Wild Card spot if they miss out on the division, while the Colts’ chances sit just below 25%.
The only team of the three that can be eliminated from playoff contention this week is the Texans. There are two scenarios for that, both of which require the Texans to lose and at least three results other than theirs to go against them. Houston would be eliminated from the playoffs in the following scenarios:
- Texans lose + Jaguars win + Colts win + Bills win or tie
- Texans lose + Jaguars win + Colts win + Bengals win + Steelers lose or tie + Broncos lose or tie
For the Colts and Jaguars, they are assured to still be in the playoff race in Week 18 in some form. Exactly how that looks for each of them would depend on which of the other 8-7 teams win or lose this week and whether the Bills can get to 10 wins in Week 17.
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