The 2023 NFL season has been wild, but there is no other division quite like the NFC South this season. The NFC South is the only division with three teams tied for first place and the only division with no team above .500. While that is not something to be proud of, with four weeks to go, it has set the division up beautifully.
With the assistance of PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the scenarios that could see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, or New Orleans Saints crowned as NFC South division champions in 2023.
NFC South Playoff Scenarios – Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 17 at 6:30 a.m. ET before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After the 4 p.m. ET slate on Sunday in Week 15, the Buccaneers are the No. 4 seed in the NFC, the Saints are the No. 7 seed, and the Falcons are in the 10th spot in the conference.
1 p.m. Games Update
Panthers (2-12) defeated Falcons (6-8)
Buccaneers (7-7) defeated the Packers (6-8)
Saints (7-7) defeated the Giants (5-9)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. Games Update
Rams (7-7) defeated Commanders (4-10)
49ers (11-3) defeated Cardinals (3-11)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the NFC South entering Sunday of Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the NFC South Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 15?
The NFC South is wonderfully poised as we head into Week 15, with all three teams in play to win the division or make the playoff via a Wild Card spot. Let’s first focus on the division and the various scenarios that could be in play over the coming weeks.
Entering Week 15, all three teams are tied at 6-7, with NFL playoff tiebreakers separating them in terms of their position within the division. The Saints are in third thanks to head-to-head losses against both the Falcons and Buccaneers. They also have the worst divisional record of the trio right now at 2-2 but have a chance to put that right down the stretch.
In terms of top spot, we have to go all the way to the common games tiebreaker to split the Buccaneers and Falcons. The Buccaneers have the advantage at 5-3 compared to 4-4 for the Falcons, with both having four common opponents to face.
That means this tiebreaker will always be in the Buccaneers’ favor at this point if the two teams end the season tied for overall record.
The fantastic thing about this division is that both the Buccaneers and Saints control their own destiny, thanks to their Week 17 game. The simplest scenario for the division is actually the Saints winning out, defeating both the Falcons and Buccaneers along the way.
The next simplest scenario is the Buccaneers winning out and winning the NFC South. Even if the Falcons match them, they will lose out for the division when it comes to the common game tiebreaker. As soon as the Buccaneers lose a game, that is when things will get dicey for the team from Tampa Bay.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The Falcons are the only team that needs help. Their simplest scenario is to win out and hope someone does them a favor by knocking off the Buccaneers. Atlanta faces the Saints in Week 18, and that game could end up being a winner-takes-all matchup for the division.
If all three teams start losing games, then things get fun, and the outcome of the division could hinge on whether there is a two- or three-way tie for the division. For a three-way tie to come into play, the Saints realistically have to beat both the Buccaneers and Falcons in the last two weeks.
Tampa Bay and Atlanta have split their series, and both beat the Saints the first time around. Therefore, if either of them wins, they would have a pivotal head-to-head sweep of the Saints in the event of any tiebreak involving New Orleans.
If the Saints do win both of those games, they would also get to 4-2 within the division and ensure the Falcons and Buccaneers cannot better that record. Both teams would then have to beat the Panthers to get to 4-2 and take it to the common game tiebreaker.
Assuming all three teams sweep the Panthers, and all three split their games with each other, then we can look at their record against their common opponents. The Saints have already played all of the common opponents and are 3-5. The Buccaneers are 3-3 with two to play, and the Falcons are 2-4 with two to play.
This is where things would unravel for the Saints in a three-way tie. To get to that scenario, the Buccaneers would need to beat the Panthers and at least one of the other common opponents. That would take them to a 4-4 record and clinch the division.
It is very hard for the Saints to take the division in any tiebreaker scenario against the Buccaneers unless Tampa Bay loses to the Panthers and Saints to finish with a 3-3 divisional record. Outside of that scenario, the Saints need to finish a game above the Buccaneers this year to win the NFC South.
That puts the Buccaneers in the prime position here. Unless they lose their remaining two-division games, most of the tiebreakers fall in their favor.
The only other tiebreaker that can go against them is if the Falcons go 2-0 in the division and the Buccaneers drop one of their divisional games on the way to a tie. That would give the NFC South to the Falcons in the event of a tie.
In all likelihood, the NFC South is going to come down to those final two weeks when the Falcons and Buccaneers play the Saints in back-to-back weeks. The Panthers could play spoiler this week by hurting their overall and divisional record, but it seems unlikely based on what we have seen from Carolina so far.
What Are the Buccaneers’, Falcons’, and Saints’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 15?
All of that essentially boils down to the following playoff chances. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Buccaneers have the best chance of both making the playoffs (45.2%) and winning the division (35.5%).
Despite currently being third in the division, ESPN’s FPI has the Saints next with a 42.0% chance of making the playoffs, ahead of the Falcons at 36.1%. In terms of the division, the Saints have a 33.5% chance of winning the NFC South compared to 31.1% for the Falcons.
MORE: NFL Week 15 Predictions From Pro Football Network
What these odds show you is that this division is virtually a three-way coin flip at this point. All three teams are still in with a shot, and all three teams have a chance to make the playoffs as a Wild Card spot.
Entering Week 15, a 6-7 record ties you for the seventh seed. The only thing separating the Falcons from the seventh seed is a 4-5 conference record, but even then, that is only a single game in the loss column behind the Packers and Rams. The Vikings loss on Saturday ensured the sixth seed in the NFC also remains very much in play.
If two of the three NFC South teams go 4-0 or 3-1 down the stretch, there is a very real chance we could still see two NFC South teams in the playoffs. If all three teams went either 4-0 or 3-1, there is even a remote chance that all three of them make it if games break their way. The sixth seed in the NFC is held by the Vikings at 7-7 — a mere half-game advantage.
It is crazy to think that a division that is led by a team under a .500 record could supply three playoff teams but the way the NFC has shaken out this year, that scenario remains very much in play entering Week 15.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!Â
