The Dallas Cowboys are on track for their third double-digit win season in a row following their Thanksgiving win over the Washington Commanders. However, despite being tied for the second-best record in the NFC, they currently sit as the fifth seed on account of not leading the NFC East. Not winning the division could lead to the Cowboys having to play three straight road games if they want to make it to the Super Bowl.
Coming out of Thanksgiving, what does Dallas need to do in order to secure a playoff spot, win the division, and put themselves in the picture for the No. 1 seed in the NFC? With the help of PFN’s Free NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the Cowboys’ various playoff scenarios for the 2023 season.
What Do the Dallas Cowboys Need To Clinch a Playoff Spot?
Sitting at 8-3, the Cowboys are the fifth seed in the NFC and three games above the current cutoff for a playoff spot at 5-6. Currently, the Packers sit as the eighth seed at 5-6 with three teams tied on a 4-6 record. Those four teams sit between the eighth and 11th seed in the conference.
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The basics of the equation are Dallas being up three games with six games to play. Therefore, even if one of the 5-6 or 4-6 teams wins every game from here on out, the Cowboys can clinch a playoff spot by winning four of their next six games.
Doing so would avoid any complications when it comes to NFL playoff tiebreakers, especially with all three of the Cowboys’ losses so far coming within the conference.
Dallas’ path to the playoffs becomes easier with every game the group of the Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, and Los Angeles Rams lose. If all three lose one more game this season, the Cowboys will only need four more wins to clinch a playoff spot. If they all lose two more games, Dallas would only need three more wins, and so on.
Of course, the other option for Dallas to clinch a playoff spot is to win its division. However, with the Philadelphia Eagles flying high at 9-1 and having already beaten the Cowboys, Dallas needs a lot to fall their way in order to win the NFC East.
Can the Cowboys Still Win the NFC East?
The simple answer is yes, the Cowboys can still win the NFC East. However, it’s not that simple — they need things to fall their way, even if they win out the rest of the way this season.
The best Dallas can do in terms of their record this season is 14-3, which would include defeating the Eagles. However, Philadelphia can still finish 15-2, even with that hypothetical loss to America’s Team.
That puts the Cowboys’ fate out of their own hands right now. They need the Eagles to lose at least one more game, and ideally, for that game to be against another NFC East team. If Dallas and Philadelphia both finish at 14-3, then we’ll have to use the NFL playoff tiebreakers to determine the NFC East champion.
The first such tiebreaker is the head-to-head record. After already losing to the Eagles previously, the best the Cowboys can do there is tie it up at 1-1. That is why it is crucial for Dallas to hand Philadelphia at least one more loss. If the Cowboys lose to the Eagles in Week 14, they would need Philadelphia to lose at least four of their other remaining six games, which seems highly unlikely.
The next tiebreaker is the division record. If Dallas wins its remaining games, they will have a 5-1 division record. If Philadelphia’s third loss comes in one of their two remaining games against the New York Giants, then it would have a 4-2 record. If the Eagles beat the 3-8 Giants, and lose elsewhere, then they would also have a 5-1 division record.
That takes us onto the tiebreaker of win percentage in common games. Remember, we are assuming the Cowboys and Eagles have both gone 5-1 within the division, having swept both the Giants and Commanders. That leaves common games against the NFC West and AFC East to consider. Assuming Dallas gets to 14-3, they would have a 10-2 record in those 12 games.
Currently, Philadelphia has played four of those teams, as well as the Commanders twice, with a 5-1 record. All of the Eagles’ remaining games are against common opponents with the Cowboys. Therefore, if Philadelphia were to finish 14-3, that third loss would have to come against a common opponent, leaving them with a matching 10-2 record against common opponents.
So with the Cowboys and Eagles tied on the first three divisional tiebreakers in this hypothetical scenario, we move onto win percentage within the conference. This is where Dallas comes unstuck if both teams finish at 14-3, because Philadelphia’s conference record would have no worse than two losses — and the Cowboys already have three.
If we were to alter the hypothetical and get those conference records to match at three losses, it would go onto the strength of victory and strength of schedule tiebreakers, both of which Philadelphia currently has an advantage in. But those numbers can still drastically change.
Therefore, the simplest scenario for the Cowboys to win the division is as follows:
- Dallas wins three more games in the last seven weeks than Philadelphia to finish ahead of them in win percentage. That would require the Eagles to lose at least three of their remaining seven games.
- The Cowboys win out to finish at 14-3, including a victory against the Eagles. Meanwhile, Philadelphia would have to lose in either Week 16 or 18 against the Giants.
Beyond that, the scenarios for the Cowboys to win the division become extremely complex and potentially require forecasting of SOV and SOS. Right now, Dallas’ best hope is to win out and keep their fingers crossed the Eagles trip over themselves in at least two, and ideally three, of their remaining games.
Could Dallas Finish as the No. 1 Seed in the NFC
In theory, yes Dallas absolutely can still be the top seed in the NFC. It would need to win the division first and foremost. Then it would need the San Francisco 49ers to lose at least one more game since Dallas lost to them earlier this season and would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Cowboys must also beat the Detroit Lions in Week 17 to ensure they have the head-to-head advantage over them in the event of the two teams being tied in terms of win percentage.
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Realistically, the No. 1 seed in the NFC is only obtainable if Dallas wins out from here. Losing any more games will make it tough to win the division and require them to need both the 49ers and Lions to lose multiple games in the final seven weeks.
At this stage, there are several scenarios for that to happen, but the Cowboys would be relying on many teams doing them favors.
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