The Baltimore Ravens lost a tough game to the Cleveland Browns in Week 10, but they’re still 7-3, atop the AFC North, and the second seed in the AFC playoff picture.
While it would take a historic collapse for the Ravens not to make the postseason in 2023, their Thursday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals could still have significant implications within the AFC North standings.
The Ravens’ Playoff Chances Heading Into Week 11
Baltimore had won four straight going into their Week 10 game against the Browns, and their win streak included the domination of talented teams like the Detroit Lions (38-6) and Seattle Seahawks (37-3).
It’s hard to imagine that the Ravens won’t earn a playoff berth. According to the New York Times’ projection model, Baltimore has an 89% chance of getting into the playoffs, the third-best odds in the AFC behind only the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins.
Entering the tournament shouldn’t be a problem for Lamar Jackson and Co. But Thursday’s game against the Bengals could affect the Ravens’ chances of winning the AFC North and/or claiming the AFC’s No. 1 seed, giving them a first-round bye.
Currently, the NYT gives Baltimore roughly a 9% chance to grab the top seed and a 32% of winning the division. A win over the Bengals — in a vacuum, not considering the results of other games — would boost those numbers to 13% and 41%, respectively.
But let’s think about a few other scenarios. What if the Ravens win and the Chiefs and Dolphins — Baltimore’s primary competitors for the AFC’s bye — both lose? Baltimore’s odds of taking the AFC’s No. 1 slot would increase to nearly one in five.
And what about the AFC North? As luck would have it, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns also face each other in Week 11. If the Ravens win on Thursday, the PIT-CLE wouldn’t have much of an effect on Baltimore — its AFC North odds would remain around 43%.
MORE: Baltimore Ravens Depth Chart
If the Ravens lose to the Bengals, all bets are off in the division. Baltimore’s chances of winning the AFC North would drop to just 16%; their hopes of winning the conference would fall to a meager 3%.
In that scenario, the Ravens would still have a 78% chance of making the playoffs.
Ravens’ Rest-of-Season Schedule
Even if the Ravens defeat the Bengals on Thursday night, they’ll still face an incredibly challenging set of opponents to close out the 2023 season.
In fact, Pro Football Network’s strength of schedule matrix — an aggregate of the PFN Consensus Power Rankings, remaining schedule win percentage, and other team-specific metrics — says Baltimore has the second-most difficult remaining slate in the NFL.
Here’s the rest of the Ravens’ schedule:
- Week 11: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 12: at Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 13: BYE
- Week 14: vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Week 15: at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 16: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 17: vs. Miami Dolphins
- Week 18: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
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