The NFL is back! Football enthusiasts finally get to sink their teeth into some real action with the start of the 2023 NFL season at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Detroit Lions.
With the return of football comes the opportunity of making player prop picks on SuperDraft for the Thursday Night Football prime-time matchup.
Top SuperDraft Player Prop Picks for Week 1
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions: 29.5 Receiving Yards
We didn’t see anything from Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta during the preseason games, which actually feels like a great sign for his role in this offense heading into the 2023 NFL season.
The Lions finished inside the top 10 in the league with 251 passing yards per game last season and will face off against a Chiefs secondary that was middle of the road against opposing passing attacks.
LaPorta was great at generating yards after the catch during his days at Iowa and should see enough work in a high-scoring game to comfortably hit the 30-yard threshold in this one.
Pick: Over
Skyy Moore, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: 46.5 Receiving Yards
The cloudy injury status of All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce heading into the season opener has many player prop enthusiasts turning their eyes to the receiving lines of other pass catchers in this Chiefs offense.
Kadarius Toney and Richie James are expected to play in this contest, but I still expect Skyy Moore to assert himself as a top option in this passing attack in his sophomore season debut.
The reason I don’t concern myself with the status of Kelce impacting Moore is because he will likely be limited in some capacity if he is active for this contest. On the contrary, Kelce could be used as a great decoy to open up other pass catchers in this offense simply with his presence on the football field.
If we truly expect Moore to fill JuJu Smith-Schuster’s role from last season —Â which saw him receive a lot of work out the slot with an average of six targets, four receptions, and 58 yards per game — Moore has a strong chance to top 47 receiving yards against the Lions secondary in what should be a high-scoring game.
Pick: Over
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions: 3.5 Receptions
The Chiefs gave up an average of 6.5 receptions per game to opposing RBs in 2022. Former Lions RB D’Andre Swift — who fell out of favor with the coaching staff at some point during the course of 2022 — averaged 3.4 receptions per game last season.
The Lions spent the 12th overall pick on Gibbs in the 2023 NFL Draft and likely have a plan to use his dynamic pass-catching from Day 1 in the NFL.
Expect him to give the Chiefs linebackers and safeties fits in coverage throughout this contest.
Pick: Over
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: 288.5 Passing Yards
Kansas City’s passing game lost Tyreek Hill heading into the 2022 season. That didn’t stop Mahomes from setting a career-high in passing yards on his way to his second league MVP nod.
One big reason is that he still had all-world tight end Kelce to rely on. Unfortunately, Kelce hyperextended his knee and will either be less than 100 percent or miss the opener altogether.
If Mahomes doesn’t have Kelce to rely on in this contest, do we feel confident he is going to drop a 300-yard performance on the Lions? Sure, he’s capable of anything … he is the best player in the league.
MORE: Fantasy Start/Sit Optimizer
However, with Kelce hobbled, I could see the Chiefs trying to run the ball more than normal.
It is never fun to bet against Mahomes, but getting to the 288.5 line without Kelce in the lineup may not be the direction you want to go in this one.
Pick: Under
