While the New England Patriots have been this century’s NFL dynasty, they’ve missed the playoffs in two out of the past three seasons. Can Bill Belichick’s squad turn things around in 2023?
The Patriots made several additions to their roster over the offseason, but the AFC is absolutely stacked. The AFC East is particularly strong — facing the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins twice each leaves New England with the league’s third-hardest schedule next season.
Can the Patriots improve after finishing with an 8-9 record last season? In this betting preview, we break down New England’s betting lines, give out a best bet, and more.
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New England Patriots Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds: +6500
Want to make a bet on this year’s Super Bowl winner? Click on the widget below!
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AFC Odds: +3500
AFC East Odds: +800
Win Total: 6.5 (Over -140/Under +120)
To Make/Miss the Playoffs: +250/-300
New England Patriots Offense
The most significant change to the Patriots’ offense in 2023 won’t involve the players on the roster. It’s an upgrade at offensive coordinator, where Bill O’Brien has returned to New England to take over for a Matt Patricia/Joe Judge combination that went nowhere last season.
After shifting from Josh McDaniels to Patricia/Judge last year, the Patriots’ offense dropped from sixth in scoring to 17th. New England ranked just 24th in offensive efficiency, 25th in success rate and points per drive, and 26th in yards.
MORE: NFL Player Props 2023 — Predictions, Longshots, and More
The Pats are hoping O’Brien can help get Mac Jones back on track after he was briefly benched last year, but New England also added new pieces to its skill-position corps.
JuJu Smith-Schuster takes over for fellow receiver Jakobi Meyers, while Mike Gesicki could form a solid tight end duo with holdover Hunter Henry. Rhamondre Stevenson was outstanding in his first season as the Pats’ full-time RB, but free agent addition Ezekiel Elliott should be able to help in short-yardage and goal-line situations.
New England Patriots Defense
Although the Patriots’ offense was a problem in 2023, the club’s defense was a strength.
New England ranked 11th in points allowed, but that hardly tells the whole story. The Pats finished No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ weighted defensive DVOA — meaning they got better as the season went along — and third in defensive EPA per play.
Defensive performance can be inherently difficult to predict year over year, but there’s no reason to expect massive regression from the Patriots. They’ll bring back key coaches like de facto defensive coordinator Steve Belichick and inside linebackers coach Jerod Mayo, while all their key contributors from last season will return.
Up front, rookie pass rusher Keion White — who has dominated the preseason — will team with veterans Matthew Judon and Josh Uche to generate pressure. Meanwhile, first-round cornerback Christian Gonzalez should immediately start in an impressive secondary that already includes fellow CBs Jonathan Jones and Jack Jones and safety Kyle Dugger.
One Betting Trend To Know
With a 5-2 ATS mark last season, the Patriots were the fourth-best covering team when favored, per Inside Edge.
Best Bet for the Patriots in 2023
Robinson: Mac Jones is never going to be Tom Brady. He’ll probably never make an All-Pro team and won’t be considered among the NFL’s elite quarterbacks.
But he’s perfectly capable of running a competent New England offense, especially now that O’Brien is in town.
Jones was better than league average during his rookie campaign in 2021. He ranked 14th in touchdown rate (4.2%), 16th in QBR (50.9), and 17th in adjusted net yards per attempt (6.22).
Jones tossed 22 touchdown passes in 2021, and we’re betting he can get back to that level — and maybe then some — this season. That’s why we’re taking the over on Jones’ passing TDs total of 19.5 (+110).
The Alabama product handled 71 red-zone pass attempts in 2021 but just 39 last season. That was partially because Jones was benched for Bailey Zappe for two games, but New England also didn’t have as many scoring opportunities in 2022 as they did the year prior.
There are always risks with betting on overs. Jones could hurt or get benched again, either of which would reduce his passing totals. But we’re confident he can get back to his 2021 form and rebound with 20+ touchdown passes in 2023.
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